After a cold front came through and chilled us way out today, we will stay in this chilly pattern for a few more days ahead of a late-week warmup as high pressure wedges into the area. Monday looks to remain dry with peeks of sun amongst the clouds; chilly northeasterly winds will keep highs suppressed in the low 50s. Low 50s may be very optimistic for Tuesday’s highs given the potential for strengthening northeasterly winds and expected rainfall around a low pressure system throughout the day helping to reinforce the cool wedge.

Said storm system departs Wednesday, allowing us to dry out and warm up a little bit with highs near 60° in the afternoon. Even fewer clouds look to be an issue for Thursday as temperatures once again approach 60°.

By Friday, we will be heading into a warming trend that’ll put us in the upper 60s to low 70s for Christmas Day with continued sunny skies. Certainly no concerns for sleigh aviation overnight Friday into Christmas morning on Saturday, which is always welcome news.

Aside from the storm system on Tuesday, we’ll need to watch morning high tides this week for the potential for coastal flooding given the recent full moon and strong northeasterly winds. A major coastal flooding event is not expected, but minor salt water flooding could cause a few roads to take on water. We’ll especially need to watch Tuesday in case heavy rain coincides with high tide. Fortunately, as the pressure gradient near the coast relaxes, so will the coastal flooding threat.

Record high temperatures will be possible Friday and Saturday as deep southerly flow pumps a lot of warm air into the area ahead of a cold front currently timed to get through here on Sunday.

We’ll start Friday with some patches of fog in the area giving way to a mix of clouds & sun. A sprinkle or two can’t totally be ruled out, either. The forecast high of 78° would tie the record high set in 1971, and a low of 59° would tie the record high minimum temperature set in 2012. We’ll certainly be on record watch throughout the day!

Saturday may also approach record warmth despite a little more cloud cover. The record high for December 18 is 80°, set in 2008. Once again, we may start the day with some patches of fog.

By Sunday, though, a cold front will be getting through the area, capping temperatures to around 70° with a scattering of showers becoming most likely from the late morning to early afternoon. Departing low pressure may kick up the winds a little bit, and could contribute to a threat of coastal flooding as we get into Monday. Thereafter, the next risk of rain arrives Tuesday as a coastal storm potentially scrapes the area. We’ve got plenty of weekend before we have to worry about that, though.

Dry weather continues as we close out the last full work week of 2021, with a warming trend into the mid-70s to boot as high pressure remains in control with ridging aloft hanging on for a few more days. We’ll see an increase in cloud cover as moisture begins to work back into the area in the upper levels, but rain looks to hold off until a front arrives on Sunday. Otherwise, not too much to write home about in the near term. We’ll be keeping an eye on the potential for a storm system to bring some additional rain to the area early next week as a Gulf low spins up and moves eastward. Beyond that, model agreement is still far apart on the specifics, so we’ll just have to watch how trends evolve over the next few days. For now, though, enjoy the relatively quiet weather!

High pressure at the surface and aloft will make for a quiet and increasingly warm work week across the Lowcountry. We’ll start Monday on a chilly note as lows should dip into the 30s across much of the area away from the immediate coast. Highs will top out in the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. We turn a little warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday, starting out with mid-40s and ending in the upper 60s. As high pressure slips offshore, we’ll start to see even more of a warming trend establish itself to close out the week, with highs in the 70s Thursday through Saturday. Our next front and rain chance looks to arrive Sunday, with showers possible and highs topping out in the mid-60s. Other than that, though, there are no weather worries to speak of other than the potential for drought to continue to expand across parts of the Southeast.

A warm front will continue to lift north across the area tonight, eroding a wedge of high pressure and setting us up for an unseasonably warm Saturday. We may start with some patches of fog during what will be a very mild morning, with lows only bottoming out around the mid to perhaps upper 50s. (The normal high for December 11 is 63°!) We’ll keep a mix of clouds and sun around as breezy southwest winds help pump in warmer air ahead of an advancing cold front. This will allow highs to top out in the mid-70s, 10°+ above normal.

Late Saturday into early Sunday morning, the aforementioned cold front will move through the area, bringing with it a weakening line of showers. It doesn’t look like we’re getting much in the way of rain out of this, so there are no real concerns as the line crosses the area. It should be out of here by daybreak Sunday (exact timing TBD), bringing a cooler airmass along with it. Highs will be right on the line for normal for December 12 on Sunday as clouds scour out, bringing us a sunny finish to the weekend.

Whatever rain we get overnight Saturday/early Sunday looks to be the only precipitation we’ll see for the next several days as our very La Niña-esque cool season rolls on. Enjoy the weekend!

The first measurable rain in quite some time is expected heading into Wednesday through early afternoon as a cold front swings through. Don’t be surprised if you hear a little thunder, too, but no severe weather is expected. The rain will keep high temperatures pinned into the mid-60s. We could see up to an inch in some spots, which would be awfully helpful with the ongoing abnormally dry conditions and even some moderate drought in parts of the area.

We’ll dry out Thursday as high pressure builds back in, but we’ll stay cool with highs topping out in the low 60s. That cool spell won’t last long, though, as we shoot right back into the low 70s for Friday with showers a possibility in the afternoon.

We’re turning much cooler for Tuesday as high pressure wedges into the area from the north in the wake of a cold front which will pass through overnight, perhaps bringing a few showers with it as it moves by. Southwest winds in the low levels will lift moisture over the high pressure wedge, producing ample cloud cover with occasional light showers possible throughout the day. This will act as a strong governor on temperatures, which may not break 60° in the afternoon.

We should see another round of minor coastal flooding around the 10:18 AM high tide Tuesday morning. Be ready for salt water on a few area roads, especially around Gadsden Creek (Fishburne/Hagood corridors near the Citadel and the Joe). Widespread coastal flood impacts are not expected.

The week ahead features something we haven’t seen in a little while: legitimate rain chances across the metro area, thanks to a couple cold fronts poised to affect the area throughout the week.

Monday begins with another foggy start, with the potential for dense fog certainly in play across much of the area to start the day. Be ready to slow down and use low beams during the morning commute. Temperatures will then rise into the mid-70s despite predominant cloud cover.

Temperatures take a tumble Tuesday as a cold front backdoors into the area, allowing high pressure to wedge down from the north. A few showers can’t be ruled out as southwest winds aloft overrun the wedge, causing lift, clouds, and some precipitation. The better shot of rain is on Wednesday as some upper-level help arrives to improve forcing for ascent and helps to shove another cold front offshore. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the set as another high pressure wedge looks to take hold, keeping partly to mostly cloudy skies in place with temperatures struggling to reach 60°. We warm back into the 70s on Friday as we head into the weekend with slight shower chances at times.

We’ll also need to continue to monitor morning high tides for the first part of the week for minor tidal flooding thanks to the recent new moon at perigee. Right now, it looks like the 9:21am high tide on Monday could top out between 7.1-7.3′, which would produce some flooding near Gadsden Creek and perhaps even into the City Market. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings could also see minor flooding episodes. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

After a foggy start, the temperature forecast could be a bit tricky on Sunday as we see how entrenched a wedge of high pressure from the north can get across the area. If the wedge can build in and hold up (additional cloud cover would help), temperatures may not get out of the 60s. If the wedge comes out on the weaker side and erodes a bit, there’s a chance we may once again reach the low to mid-70s in spots. Recent model guidance has trended back warmer from earlier today, but the wedge can sometimes be stronger than what guidance will depict. The good news is that the forecast remains rain-free regardless. Just be ready to make quick wardrobe adjustments if needed.

There will once again be a risk for shallow coastal flooding around the 8:26 AM high tide. Water levels should reach 7.3-7.5′ in the harbor, perhaps on the higher end of this depending on the extent and strength of northeasterly winds. Be ready for a few road closures in downtown Charleston tomorrow morning, but widespread problems are currently not expected.

High pressure remains in control of our weather over the weekend, keeping partly cloudy skies in place and unseasonably warm temperatures in tow. We look to return to the mid-70s Saturday after starting out around 50°, weather that is more reminiscent of October than December. We keep this in place on Sunday, with highs perhaps coming in a couple degrees cooler as a cold front gets nearby (but not through the area, it looks like).

The only weather worry will be the risk for minor coastal flooding with the morning high tides on Saturday, Sunday, and possibly into Monday as the new moon at perigee brings us another round of king tides. High tide on Saturday morning arrives around 7:32am and on Sunday at 8:26am. Minor flooding can close a few roads around downtown Charleston, particularly near the Citadel and the City Market, but these disruptions should be easy to bypass. (It’ll be nothing like what we saw around this time last month, that’s for sure!) Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service and avoid roads covered in salt water as that’s nasty for your car.