We will mark the end of August and meteorological summer with another day of near-normal heat and humidity under partly cloudy skies on Tuesday. Temperatures will once again approach 90° in the afternoon after starting in the muggy mid-70s. Heat indices will once again climb into the low 100s as humidity continues to persist.

After a cold front swings through Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms, though, drier air will punch in from the north and make it feel much more comfortable for Thursday into the weekend — a well-timed shot of nice weather as we head into the long Labor Day weekend.

On balance, the week ahead actually looks pretty good. Rain-free but warm conditions (highs ~90°) continue Monday and Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure remains in place across the region. By Wednesday, a cold front and a slug of moisture at least partially sourced from the remnants of Hurricane Ida push southward across the area, scattering showers and thunderstorms across the metro area. The front should clear the area by Thursday, yielding partly cloudy skies and somewhat cooler temperatures with less humidity as we head into the weekend — the first weekend of meteorological fall, which runs from September 1-November 30.

High pressure will continue its influence on our weather as we head into the final weekend of August. Temperatures look to remain in the upper 80s to around 90° each afternoon with warm starts in the mid-70s away from the coastline, where temperatures continue to struggle to get below 80° each morning. The aforementioned high pressure will act to keep shower and thunderstorm activity to a minimum through the weekend, certainly welcomed considering how soggy of an August we’ve had.

High pressure will also keep Tropical Storm Ida, forecast to become a hurricane as it approaches the central Gulf Coast this weekend, out of our hair. Unfortunately, it looks to be another direct strike on Louisiana, an area that is very tropical-cyclone weary after the numerous storms it dealt with last season. If you have friends or family there (as well as in coastal Mississippi and Alabama), please make sure they understand that time is of the essence to prepare as tropical storm-force winds could begin as soon as Saturday evening along the coast. Ida is forecast to make landfall sometime Sunday evening along the Louisiana coast. From there, its moisture may get caught up in a frontal system and help provide the juice for another round of wet weather here next week.

For now, though, enjoy a relatively quiet weekend of weather in our neck of the world.

After scattered storms dotted the interior with downpours once again this afternoon, most of us get a rain-free Thursday as stacked high pressure and a lobe of (relatively) drier air filter into the area from the Atlantic. Temperatures look to head up to the upper 80s to around 90°, right around where we should be in late August. We’ll keep the relatively calm and quiet weather into Friday and the weekend as well, with upper 80s and just the standard slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms through Sunday.

A tropical upper tropospheric trough — more commonly known as a TUTT low — will bring some unsettled weather into the area tonight into tomorrow morning as it moves westward across Florida and spins some energy and enhanced moisture our direction. The best risk for heavy rainfall in the morning will be along the coast. Rain could start to pick up quite early in the morning and be problematic through the commute. The good news is that much of it looks to fall around low tide, but minor flooding just cannot be ruled out given how soggy soils have become. By afternoon, the risk for showers and thunderstorms spreads inland.

Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s across the area in the afternoon. Mix that in with humidity, and you’ve once again got heat indices around 100° in the afternoon.

Rain chances turn a little more scattered Thursday into Friday and the weekend, but we’ll keep that summertime heat around with highs topping out in the upper 80s to around 90° each day.

Persistence is the word when looking at Tuesday’s forecast: Warm, humid, with scattered thunderstorms firing along the seabreeze, primarily in the afternoon. (There is a chance a shower or two could scrape the coast in the morning, too.) Temperatures should generally top out in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 100s thanks to plenty of late-August humidity.

Expect this pattern to stay with us for the rest of the week, with a little more coverage on Wednesday thanks to an upper-level tropical low (a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, to be precise) helping to send a little more moisture and forcing our way. After that passes, coverage will ratchet back a few clicks as high pressure stays in control.

We’ll remain in a somewhat unsettled regime of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day this week as tropical moisture continues to hang tough in the Lowcountry. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 80s to around 90° each day. Mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to 100°. Not everyone will see rain every day, nor will it rain all the time, but you’ll want to keep a close eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans this week.

Taking a look at the numbers, it’s been a very, very soggy August. 10.83″ of rain at the airport — including August 15’s 4.08″ deluge — is good for fourth wettest to date (as of August 21). Only 1940, 1969, and 1974 have seen wetter starts to the month. We’re a few well-placed downpours away from making a decent run at August 1940’s monthly record of 17.24″ with ten days to go (including whatever falls between the trace of rain at 5PM through the end of the day).

If there’s one bit of good news, though, it’s that the tropics are largely quiet. Henri made landfall in New England earlier today, and with that, there are no named storms in the Atlantic basin. NHC is keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather near the Cabo Verde Islands, but as of this writing only gives this disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next five days. Otherwise, a round of Saharan dust is going to help keep things at bay a little bit for at least the next few days — suffice to say, we will take whatever break we can get from the tropics in late August. The climatological peak of the season arrives September 10.

We remain in a bit of an active pattern heading into the weekend as disturbances traversing an upper-level trough over the region help to enhance coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. Heat and humidity will continue, with temperatures in the low 90s for Friday and Saturday in particular. Dewpoints remain quite elevated — mid-to-upper 70s will be common, especially after the seabreeze moves inland — and this will keep heat indices in the 100-105° range before thunderstorms break up the party a bit.

Much like we saw Thursday evening, thunderstorms that fire will be capable of producing very heavy rain, a lot of lightning, and likely won’t be moving too terribly much, either. Thus, the risk for isolated flooding events continues. Thunderstorms could become briefly severe where outflow boundaries and cell mergers occur, with wet microbursts a distinct possibility in the strongest storms, but widespread severe weather is not expected. The good news is that it won’t rain all day, but when storms do fire, you’ll want to be headed indoors as they will be prolific lightning producers.

Long story short: Keep your water bottles and rain gear handy, because you’ll need both at times throughout the weekend.

Fred may be long-gone, but its tropical moisture continues to linger across the Lowcountry for another day, making for another round of stifling heat for Thursday. Temperatures will head into the low 90s; combine this with heinous dewpoints in the upper 70s, and that will yield heat indices around 105°. This is getting to the point where heat stroke becomes a real possibility, so be sure to take plenty of breaks in the shade and get plenty of hydration if you must be outside in the heat of the day.

Some will see relief through showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a small chance of storms once again in the morning if the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model has anything to say about it, so we’ll want to watch that trend. Otherwise, we should see another round of scattered afternoon thunderstorms as the heating of the day kicks in and the seabreeze makes its trek. Once again, storm motions won’t be terribly fast, and with precipitable water values at or over 2”, flooding certainly cannot be ruled out in spots.

Fred continues to move northward across the western Carolinas this evening, bringing quite a ruckus including significant flash flooding in the NC mountains and several tornadoes. For our part of the Lowcountry, heavy rain has been the story. Heavy rainfall closed roads this morning in parts of downtown Charleston, while a stationary downpour within a rain band produced a radar-estimated 5-5.5” of rain across Ravenel and Hollywood.

As we get into Wednesday, Fred’s remnants will become long-gone, but its legacy of deep tropical moisture will remain. An airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 70s will linger, keeping things rather humid across the region. Heat indices look to top out in the low 100s despite the fact we may not even crack 90° tomorrow.

We may start the day with heavy downpours near the coast. High-resolution models have had a pretty consistent signal that lingering banding features from departing Fred may help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, which might have impacts on the commute. Afterward, high pressure aloft will increasingly reassert itself, which indicates generally scattered showers and thunderstorms developing on the seabreeze in the afternoon. Storm motions will be slow and largely driven by the inland progression of the seabreeze, so pockets of very heavy rain cannot be discounted. Otherwise, though, there will indeed be a mix of sun and clouds, so it won’t be total gloom like we’ve seen the past day or two.