We continue to watch Tropical Depression Claudette’s circulation move through northern Georgia into the Upstate and Midlands of South Carolina this afternoon. NHC’s last fix at 2PM had it roughly around Athens, GA, heading east at 17 MPH. So far, a few spots have seen some brief rainfall, but we have been largely within a dry slot surrounding the inner bands of the circulation. Indeed, it appears that moisture inflow may have been disrupted in part due to vigorous thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast — a common occurrence for choking off more widespread rainfall in our neck of the woods. However, we continue to watch a decent rain band stretching from roughly Mt. Vernon, GA up toward Augusta. This band is steadily making eastward progress, and satellite data suggests it could be becoming a little more vigorous as it moves eastward into a more unstable atmosphere.

A blend of timing tools and model guidance puts this rain band in the Charleston Tri-County area roughly in the 4-6 PM timeframe. It will undoubtedly bring the greatest risk for very heavy rainfall, with models suggesting 1-2″ of rain will be common. 3″+ cannot be ruled out in some spots, either, and wherever this heaviest rain falls could be in line for flooding issues.

High tide is at 4:55 PM. Right now, it appears that the heaviest rain will arrive about an hour or two afterward, but trends will need close monitoring. I would still be prepared for flooding this evening in downtown Charleston.

We’ve had gusty winds in the area thanks to a strong low-level jet — a gust to 32 MPH was recently recorded at Charleston International Airport. Guidance suggests the core of the low-level jet looks to move atop the SC coastline around the time the rain band is moving in, so that could increase the risk for a damaging wind gust or two. This strengthening low-level jet will also assist in creating favorable conditions for a tornado or two, so we’ll want to monitor these trends as we go throughout the day.

Stay weather aware — more updates here and on Twitter as needed.

We will be watching the weather closely today as showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the Tri-County area on the southern flank of Tropical Depression Claudette. Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado or two are all on the table. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 8am Monday, and it is conceivable that a tornado watch will be needed later today.

Tropical Depression Claudette, which is moving through western Alabama this evening, will be taking a bit more of an easterly turn around the subtropical ridge, heading through northern Georgia and SC during the day on Sunday. This will, in turn, bring along another plume of tropical moisture into the area, setting up another round of heavy and perhaps flooding rain in spots, along with the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and maybe a tornado or two.

It’s been a great couple days of weather in the Lowcountry, but the remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three look to bring unsettled weather back beginning Saturday afternoon.

After what ended up being a stellar Thursday for mid-June, we’ll get another warm but less humid day for Friday. Temperatures will start in the upper 60s and will top out around 90° in the afternoon. Dewpoints will run in the upper 60s to around 70°, yielding heat indices a couple ticks above the air temperature, but nothing we can’t handle.

As we get into the weekend, we will start to see tropical moisture increase across the area ahead of what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. There are some timing differences in the models which will have influences on the forecast, but for now, Saturday could feature a couple showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours after a high of 91° that will feel closer to 97-98°. As we get into Sunday, moisture continues to increase, and the remnants of the tropical low move roughly along the NC-SC border. This will continue to kick up showers and storms into Sunday. Expect periods of heavy rain at times. The big question, though, remains timing, which has run a little later in recent guidance. Thus, I wouldn’t start canceling too many plans just yet — just keep an eye on forecast updates as we get into the weekend.

While the cold front that triggered last night’s deluge has slipped south of the area, it has stalled out nearby. With a little bit of help from some upper-level dynamics, we should see some isolated thunderstorms in the metro area this afternoon. A damaging wind or large hail episode is possible for a few of you, so stay alert across the area this afternoon. With that in mind, the severe threat certainly looks more isolated than we saw yesterday.

Highs top out near 90°; with a little less humidity behind the front, it won’t feel quite as swampy outside.

After today, we look to stay rain-free through Saturday with warm temperatures and low humidity by June standards.

After another night of heavy rain and flooding (with some hail and wind damage mixed in), we thankfully get a few days to dry out as drier high pressure builds south across the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will run a degree or two either side of normal for the rest of the work week. Humidity will be rather low for this time of year, and so heat indices will not run too much warmer than the air temperature. Still, “normal” for mid-June means upper 80s to low 90s, so it won’t exactly be cool. But any time we can get a drier heat for a few days during a Charleston summer, we will take it.

More importantly, we will stay rain-free for several days. It’s hard to believe that we were talking about a developing drought just two weeks ago, but here we are after a couple extraordinarily soggy days being extremely pleased to see the rain take a quick break. We look to stay dry through Saturday before tropical moisture once again infiltrates the area beginning Sunday.

6:50 PM update: The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended until 9PM. The risk for severe weather continues in the Lowcountry, particularly with a severe thunderstorm moving through eastern Orangeburg County, approaching Berkeley County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the Charleston metro area (including Berkeley, Charleston, and Dorchester counties) until 7PM. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns for any storms that form. Stay alert to possible severe thunderstorm warnings this afternoon and evening, and be ready for quickly changing conditions.

Typical June weather continues for Tuesday. Temperatures will head up into the low 90s in the afternoon as westerly winds keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast. We’ll want to keep an eye on an upper-level disturbance as it swings through; this could help a few storms to get going in the afternoon, especially if the seabreeze can make some inland progress. There will be enough instability to support storms if enough lift is realized, and dry air in the mid-levels could portend a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. So, we’ll keep an eye on this, but it is more likely than not we get through Tuesday rain-free in a vast majority of spots — good news as we dry out from this past weekend’s deluge.

After a very soggy weekend, we will get the opportunity to dry out a bit as the deep moisture plume which has been in place for the last few days finally gets shunted away from the area. This week is going to be pretty standard June fare: highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with a chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be common. Thursday and Friday will be a touch cooler and drier in the wake of another front moving south of the area, and this could put the kibosh on even slight chances of afternoon showers and storms (though you can never totally rule it out at this point in the year). Expect slight shower and storm chances to return for the weekend as a little more moisture gets fed our direction from the Gulf.