Our stretch of very warm temperatures continues into Thursday, but changes in the pattern are afoot that will show winter reasserting itself especially as we get into next week.

With our stretch of ridiculously warm temperatures — the high so far today is 77° — comes the risk for sea fog development as the warmer air heads over much cooler water (~60°). As winds slacken tonight, we should see the fog close in on coastal communities (including downtown Charleston and perhaps beyond). Be ready for commute disruptions tomorrow morning due to dense fog; a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9am for Charleston County as well as portions of Berkeley County in the tidal zone (think Daniel Island).

We in #chswx continue to carefully watch a line of thunderstorms to our west as it presses toward the coast tonight. Satellite and radar reflectivity increasingly show the line weakening as it approaches the area, which is expected as the parent storm system lifts into the Northeast, taking the best dynamics with it. However, there is some elevated instability in place, and with strong winds a couple thousand feet off the deck, we could still see some showers produce some gusty winds if they hold up to the coast. Rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out either, especially around I-95. While the severe weather threat is marginal, it is non-zero, so a couple downed trees cannot be totally ruled out.

Temperatures will remain rather warm tonight, only bottoming out in the mid-60s Sunday morning as strong southwesterly winds aloft continue to pump in warm air from the Gulf of Mexico.

Unseasonable warmth will continue through the weekend as the Charleston area remains within the warm sector of a rather potent storm system that is bringing heavy snow to Wisconsin and severe weather to Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas. Fortunately, we look to miss out on much, if not all, of the severe weather, but unsettled conditions will continue well into next week. A washout is not expected, but scattered showers will be possible from time to time.

This week will be punctuated by continued warmer-than-normal temperatures with another storm system for the weekend. Monday will continue to feel more like January should, with highs in the low 60s (still a few degrees above normal for January 6) under clear, sunny skies. More clouds move into the area for Tuesday ahead of a dry frontal passage that will knock temperatures back to around 60° for Wednesday. Thereafter, a warming trend takes hold as a storm system rumbles its way toward our neck of the woods. Rain chances start to kick back in Friday — along with a return to the 70s — as we head into the weekend. (Don’t cancel any weekend activities just yet! Forecast will need fine-tuning.)

2019 proved to be another busy year for our weather, particularly when it comes to coastal flooding. Beyond the flooding, though, we had plenty of heat and another brush with a hurricane. (Seems pretty standard nowadays, no?) Let’s dig into the numbers…

This was a pretty busy year in weather, for sure. I’ve got some more retrospective work queued up over the next couple days, but today, enjoy my exclusive conversation with Quintin Washington of Quintin’s Close-Ups fame about the weather that was in 2019 and for the decade as a whole.

Happy New Year to all of you in #chswx-land. Thank you for your reports, your enthusiasm, and your support. A special shoutout to my Patreon subscribers, who make investments in hosting and furthering the technology that underpins @chswx possible. I’m looking forward to continuing our partnership in making Charleston a more weather-ready place to live in 2020 and beyond!

We’ve got another very warm day on tap for Monday as a cold front approaches the area with a few showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two) coming along with it. Temperatures will drop closer to normal for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with pleasant skies to greet us for 2020. Then, things turn unsettled and warm again as we head toward Friday and Saturday as another cold front works its way through the area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sunday turn out a lot cooler than 65° — a lot depends on when a secondary shot of cool air moves into the area. Rest assured that the first full week back to work and school looks much cooler!

The last few days of 2019 will be marked with unusual warmth as high pressure at the surface and aloft take hold, helping to dry us out nicely from Monday’s deluge. A few showers will be possible this weekend as a trough of low pressure just offshore exerts influence on our weather, followed by a cold front overnight Sunday into Monday that’ll knock temperatures back closer to normal for New Years’ Eve. Enjoy a brief break from cold rain!

Unfortunately, as expected, widespread flooding is ongoing in downtown Charleston this morning as heavy rain combined with high tide to close numerous roads. Heavy rain will continue throughout the day, with another 4-6″+ expected across much of the Tri-County area through tonight.