We in the Charleston weather community continue to watch Thursday evening and overnight carefully for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds and perhaps a tornado or two as a cold front pushes eastward.

The weather story this week is early spring, and not just because Punxsutawney Phil said so. (And can one truly call it an early spring if winter hasn’t really been much of a factor?) Much of the week will be punctuated by temperatures in the low 70s as our lack-of-winter continues thanks to a rather high-latitude jet stream keeping Arctic air locked in to the north.

With this warmth, though, comes the specter of severe storms, and it appears there is some potential for this on Thursday as a cold front approaches the area.

Well, last night was certainly interesting, if nothing else, as false alarms from weather apps and a questionable view from a webcam stirred Charleston into a brief snow frenzy that ultimately did not pan out.

Are y’all ready to chill out a little? We’ll start the week with temperatures well below normal as an Arctic airmass takes hold across the Lowcountry. Freezing temperatures will be possible inland of 17 Monday morning with highs only topping out in the mid-40s. A more widespread freeze is forecasted Tuesday and Wednesday, with the potential for freezing conditions all the way into downtown Charleston. Be ready to bring in pets and sensitive plants.

As we get into the second half of the week, temperatures will begin to moderate. Thursday will approach 60°, and Friday will be much warmer as a cold front approaches the area with showers coming alongside it. Showers will gradually clear out Saturday, and by Sunday, we’ll have fewer clouds and temperatures back to near-normal levels for late January.

For the first time in a week, there are no 70s in the forecast — that’s courtesy of a cold front that’s swung through the area this evening, finally knocking us back toward weather that feels much more in line with where we are on the calendar. Temperatures on Friday will not get out of the 50s in the afternoon despite mostly sunny skies. As another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see temperatures warm back to the 60s with shower chances Saturday and Sunday. As we get into next week, temperatures will really plunge, with freezing temperatures expected for the first time since December 20. Hope you haven’t misplaced your jackets!

Our stretch of very warm temperatures continues into Thursday, but changes in the pattern are afoot that will show winter reasserting itself especially as we get into next week.

With our stretch of ridiculously warm temperatures — the high so far today is 77° — comes the risk for sea fog development as the warmer air heads over much cooler water (~60°). As winds slacken tonight, we should see the fog close in on coastal communities (including downtown Charleston and perhaps beyond). Be ready for commute disruptions tomorrow morning due to dense fog; a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9am for Charleston County as well as portions of Berkeley County in the tidal zone (think Daniel Island).

We in #chswx continue to carefully watch a line of thunderstorms to our west as it presses toward the coast tonight. Satellite and radar reflectivity increasingly show the line weakening as it approaches the area, which is expected as the parent storm system lifts into the Northeast, taking the best dynamics with it. However, there is some elevated instability in place, and with strong winds a couple thousand feet off the deck, we could still see some showers produce some gusty winds if they hold up to the coast. Rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out either, especially around I-95. While the severe weather threat is marginal, it is non-zero, so a couple downed trees cannot be totally ruled out.

Temperatures will remain rather warm tonight, only bottoming out in the mid-60s Sunday morning as strong southwesterly winds aloft continue to pump in warm air from the Gulf of Mexico.

Unseasonable warmth will continue through the weekend as the Charleston area remains within the warm sector of a rather potent storm system that is bringing heavy snow to Wisconsin and severe weather to Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas. Fortunately, we look to miss out on much, if not all, of the severe weather, but unsettled conditions will continue well into next week. A washout is not expected, but scattered showers will be possible from time to time.

This week will be punctuated by continued warmer-than-normal temperatures with another storm system for the weekend. Monday will continue to feel more like January should, with highs in the low 60s (still a few degrees above normal for January 6) under clear, sunny skies. More clouds move into the area for Tuesday ahead of a dry frontal passage that will knock temperatures back to around 60° for Wednesday. Thereafter, a warming trend takes hold as a storm system rumbles its way toward our neck of the woods. Rain chances start to kick back in Friday — along with a return to the 70s — as we head into the weekend. (Don’t cancel any weekend activities just yet! Forecast will need fine-tuning.)