The weather is probably the easiest thing that we’ll be able to predict this week, so here goes: After a (relatively) chilly Monday, this week’s weather will turn gradually warmer, with the occasional rain shower or two at times. We should be in the 80s by Thursday and stay around that mark through Saturday. A cold front looks to swing through the area on Sunday, knocking temperatures well below mid-March normals while bringing more showers to the area.

Overall, expect rainfall amounts to be light. We continue to run a surplus of a little under an inch of rain for this point in March, so this will just serve as a sprinkle on top of your gardens, which look safe from any frost or freeze conditions for the foreseeable future.

Aside from that, the advice is simple: Be good to each other.

Today’s forecast looks a lot different than the NWS forecast that was published Friday evening. (Pesky, stalled frontal boundaries will do that to you.) We’ll see a warm front lift north of the area, allowing temperatures to surge back into the mid-70s this afternoon. Showers should stay few and far between for a fair bit of the day, but an uptick in shower chances will arrive this evening as a disturbance aloft moves through the Carolinas, helping to bring the front back to the south of our area as a cold front. Plan for rain gear late this afternoon into this evening if you must be out and about, but please be sure to limit any unnecessary travel — not necessarily because of weather, but because we all need to do our part in helping to limit spread of the novel coronavirus so we can #FlattenTheCurve and give our health workers a fighting chance.

After a high of 83° made today the warmest day of 2020, we will be cooling off substantially this weekend as a backdoor cold front moves through overnight Friday/early Saturday morning. This will turn winds to the northeast and kick up the cloud cover, which will in turn keep temperatures down into the upper 60s for Saturday afternoon. It’ll feel like quite a difference from the three straight days of 80s we’ve had this week, that’s for sure.

Shower chances will increase as the day goes on Sunday as the front wobbles along to the south and a wave of low pressure develops to the west. Temperatures will once again be held to the mid-to-upper 60s in the afternoon with light rain in the area. It’s conceivable this could go a little lower, too, as these high pressure wedge setups often err on the cool side of things.

Temperatures head back into the 80s tomorrow under partly cloudy skies. We may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm kick off in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us look to remain dry throughout the day. Best chances for any rainfall look to be closer to I-95 than the Charleston metro area, but we’ll want to see how the mesoscale details sort themselves out as this pattern has a bit of a summer-like feel to it.

While 83° is rather toasty for mid-March — a normal March 13th tops out around 69° — it’s not a record. That dubious honor goes to March 13, 1990, when the high temperature at Charleston International Airport reached 88°.

Well, at least the weather’s going to be decent on Thursday. Partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to once again approach 80°, and the lack of any triggers for convection makes any rain chance negligible.

While these temperatures are well above normal — a high of 69° and low of 46° mark a more typical March 12th based on 1981-2010 averages — the NWS forecast high of 78° is not a record. It’s not even close, in fact. The record high for March 12 is 89°, set in 1973. Now, if we don’t get cooler than 62°, we’d tie or break the record warmest low temperature for the date, set in 1985. So, while it’s rather warm, it isn’t unprecedented to get even warmer this time of year.

Another warm day is on tap for Wednesday, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s across the area (away from the locally cooler coastline, anyway). Most of the day looks dry, but some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible in the afternoon as an upper disturbance swings on by. Not expecting anything too crazy, but there may be some raindrops near the commute, so that will be worth watching.

The South Carolina Tornado Drill, weather permitting, will take place at 9am Wednesday. The National Weather Service will send a test tornado warning that will cause NOAA Weather Radio to sound a tone as if a real warning were occurring, but this warning will not go out over cell phones or other alerting systems. (I’ve got a tweet queued up for 9am as well.) Use this time to practice your tornado safety plan! If you participate, tag me in a photo on your favorite social media platform and I’ll share it!

Despite more cloud cover on Tuesday, expect temperatures to once again top out in the low-to-mid-70s as southerly surface flow remains in place. There’s a slight chance of a shower or two as disturbances pass to our north, but the vast majority of us get through Tuesday high and dry.

Wash your hands.

After a seasonably cool weekend in the wake of a decently strong early-March cold front, temperatures will head back above normal for the upcoming week. Scattered showers will be possible for much of the work week as a series of disturbances aloft ripple through the area. Fortunately, we won’t see the moisture surge and the subsequent sustained heavy rain that we saw last week.

For perspective: Normal highs for March 9-15 are in the mid-to-upper 60s. Highs in the mid-70s for a fair bit of the week are much more characteristic of this time next month.

After over an inch and a half of rain today that caused flooding in downtown Charleston, we are going to see a nice break for a few days with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will run cooler than normal for early March with highs in the low 60s Friday and Sunday. Saturday will be even cooler in the wake of a dry cold front that swings through sometime Friday afternoon.

Friday will be pretty windy, with gusts 30-35 MPH possible across the area. NWS notes in its forecast discussion that there is the potential for gusts to 40 MPH on elevated roadways (read: the Cooper River and Wando bridges), so be extra cautious when driving.

Next rain chance could arrive as soon as next Tuesday, but for now, enjoy drying out!

We have a soggy Thursday ahead as a strong upper-level disturbance drives low pressure through the Gulf Coast states along a stalled front. Said disturbance will arrive with copious amounts of moisture to produce heavy rainfall, perhaps on the tune of 1-2″ on top of the 3/4-inch rainfall we’ve already received across much of the area on Wednesday. This may cause some concerns about localized flooding, particularly this afternoon near high tide. (More about that in a sec.) Rain will come to an end across the area Thursday evening as low pressure heads northeast, turning winds to the northwest and drying us out.

Temperatures will remain in the mid-to-upper 50s on Thursday as we look to remain in the cool sector of the storm for the duration of the event. While there could be some wobbles in the position of the aforementioned front, it’s expected to remain south of the area.