Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.
Temperatures reminiscent of November rather than mid-October continue on Thursday despite unfettered sunshine. We’ll start the day in the low 40s in the metro, with some upper 30s possible further inland. The wind chill will feel closer to the mid-to-upper 30s, so once again, layers are a good idea tomorrow morning. Temperatures head to the mid-60s in the afternoon, so keeping some sort of long sleeves around for when you’re not in sunlight is a smart play. Northerly winds will once again be breezy, generally 10-15 MPH in the afternoon with higher gusts.
We’ll also need to watch for minor coastal flooding during the Thursday morning commute. Water levels are expected to peak around 7.1-7.3′ with the 8:13 AM high tide. The more northerly component of wind will minimize coastal flood impacts a little, but we can still expect a few road closures in the more vulnerable locations of downtown Charleston. Be ready to reroute.
A reinforcing cold front will swing through overnight tonight, ushering in the coldest air so far this season. We’ll start the day in the low 50s, but gusty north winds will cause temperatures to struggle to the low 60s despite increasing sunshine as clouds from the frontal passage dissipate. This certainly qualifies for sweater weather in our neck of the woods — have the warm clothes at the ready!
Thursday morning will be the coldest of the set as the cool air continues to push into the area, though winds will diminish a little. Temperatures in much of the metro could dip into the upper 30s to around 40° — quite possibly the coldest morning since February 22, when it was 37°. The wind chill will be a factor (pun somewhat intended), and could make it feel close to freezing. A couple layers aren’t the worst idea heading out the door in the morning. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will still only recover to the mid-60s at best in the afternoon. This is well below normal for this point in the year (think upper 70s), and may flirt with record cold high temperatures as well (62° set in 1970).
Temperatures start to bend back toward climatology on Friday, though. We’ll start the day in the mid-40s as a bit more of an onshore component to the wind develops, heading to about 70° in the afternoon under sunny skies once again. As we get into the weekend, temperatures will continue to run a bit below normal, but mid-70s will mean short sleeves are back on the menu. With plenty of sunshine, it’ll be a solid weekend of San Diego-like weather (if you know, you know).
Tuesday’s temperatures, despite plenty of sunshine, will run a little below normal for this point in October. We start the day in the low 50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Clouds will be hard to come by, though they should begin to increase after midnight. That being said, it should be another solid evening of stargazing in the western sky as Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS continues to appear in the night sky after sunset.
We’re back on the temperature rollercoaster this week as a front moves by on Tuesday, which will usher in the coolest airmass thus far this season for mid-week. (Certainly a far cry from watching another tropical system, that’s for sure.)
First, though, we have one more day in the 80s before the front gets through. It’ll be the warmest day of the week, starting around 60° and warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon. We’ll get within spitting distance of the record high of 88° set in 1943 and 1990, but we should stay below that mark. Much like Sunday, expect another day of unfettered sunshine on Monday.
The front moves by Tuesday with a little more in the way of cloud cover but little else. That will cool highs off to the mid-70s, roughly 10° or so cooler than Monday. We really feel the cooler airmass on Wednesday, though, as temperatures fall to the upper 40s in the morning, only reaching the mid-60s in the afternoon. Thursday runs even cooler in the morning, with mid-40s reaching back to the mid-60s once again. No rain’s expected with this frontal passage, and we’ll see primarily sunshine more than anything else.
After one more start in the mid-40s, a warming trend commences Friday as highs climb back to the low 70s. Saturday will run a little warmer, with highs in the mid-70s, and we’ll run even a click warmer on Sunday as well, with plenty of sunshine throughout.
We have an outstanding weekend of weather ahead as high pressure remains in control. After our first low in the 40s Friday morning, Saturday starts back in the upper 40s once more, but winds will start to swing around to the south and that will begin to help moderate the airmass a bit. Expect just a few passing clouds Saturday afternoon, but otherwise, lots of sunshine will be the rule.
Sunday will be a warmer day. We start the day in the mid-50s, warming back into the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. It’ll be a very comfortable low 80s, though, as humidity will be a non-factor with dewpoints in the mid-50s.
I hope you get a chance to enjoy this wonderful weekend of weather!
Get ready for the first low 50s of the season starting tomorrow morning! Lows are forecast to bottom out around 50° — and into the upper 40s further inland — for the first time since April 24 on Friday morning. This will yield to highs in the low 70s in the afternoon under predominantly sunny skies. The northeast breeze will still be elevated in the morning, gradually winding down as we get into the evening.
Saturday gets off to a similarly chilly start, though the airmass will begin to moderate as highs climb back into the upper 70s in the afternoon with nearly uninhibited sunshine expected. The warming trend continues Sunday, with a slightly warmer start in the mid-50s warming to highs in the low 80s in the afternoon.
The only weather-related concern of note will be the risk for some minor flooding around the afternoon high tides Friday and again on Saturday as the northeast breeze persists. However, major flooding disruptions do not appear to be in the cards.
Finally, there’s nothing in the tropics we need to be worried about. In fact, it may be a while before we get any more rain. A dry front early next week could usher in even cooler weather, well below normal for mid-October standards. Watching it…
Our brush with Milton arrives on Thursday. The Tropical Storm Watch was dropped as tropical storm conditions are not expected on land (though a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal waters). However, that doesn’t change the forecast: It’ll still be a breezy day, with a Wind Advisory in effect for the area from 6 AM to 8 PM as the gradient between high pressure to the north and Milton to the south pinches and drives gusts upwards of 40 MPH across the area. Moderate to major coastal flooding is also expected during the afternoon, with some salt water flooding possibly persisting into early evening depending on how high the tidal departure ends up being. Right now, moderate flooding is forecast as the harbor should peak at 7.8′ MLLW with high tide just before 2 PM. This will close roads in downtown Charleston and parts of Mt. Pleasant, especially around Long Point Road. Be ready to reroute in case you encounter a flooded road.
The rain threat, however, is minimal. We may see a few showers sneak in from time to time, but we will miss out on Milton’s rainfall. In fact, we can expect skies to start to clear as we get further into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will start in the low-to-mid-60s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon.
Clouds will increase on Wednesday as Hurricane Milton draws closer to landfall in Florida. We’ll see a decent northeasterly breeze during the day, but nothing unmanageable, and we’ll stay out of the rain, too. The day starts on a fairly cool note with lows in the low 60s, and we’ll warm to the upper 70s in the afternoon, tempered by the northeasterly winds and the increasing cloud cover. There will be a chance for some minor coastal flooding a couple hours around the 12:41 PM high tide, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is possible.
Quiet and warm weather continues Tuesday as we continue to monitor Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico for possible peripheral impacts on the Lowcountry as we get into Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect a comfortable start in the mid-60s on Tuesday, with temperatures warming to the low-to-mid-80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies (though clouds will be increasing as the day goes on). Northeast winds will generally run 10-15 MPH across the metro.
A cold front brings a shot of Fall to the area as we get into the meat of the new week with a possible brief appearance by Hurricane Milton as it departs into the Atlantic and turns extratropical.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week ahead of the aforementioned cold front. We’ll start the day in the low to mid-60s, which is right around where we should be at this point in the year. Temperatures will warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
The front gets through Tuesday morning. We’ll start Tuesday in the mid-60s, but will only warm to the low 80s in the afternoon with a bit more in the way of cloud cover as the front stalls out to our south. Cloud cover and northeasterly winds increase Wednesday as Milton draws closer. This will keep highs only in the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon.
On the current forecast track, we can expect peripheral effects from Milton starting Wednesday night and peaking on Thursday. Showers will be possible near the coast, but the main concerns will be gusty winds as the gradient pinches between Milton to the south and high pressure to the north, rough surf and rip currents, maybe some beach erosion, and coastal flooding, which may be significant come Thursday. It’s too early to know the extent of those impacts, but it’ll be worth watching for travel troubles downtown around times of high tide.
The good news is that Milton departs quickly, and the weekend looks excellent, with the first solid stretch of lows in the 50s of the season expected through Sunday. Temperatures warm from the mid-70s on Friday to the low 80s on Sunday with plenty of sunshine expected.
