Expect one more generally quiet weather day on Thursday (though a shower or storm can’t be ruled out in the afternoon, especially further inland) before things turn more unsettled as a trough digs in for Friday and the weekend.

Another day or two of quiet weather is expected as deep-layer dry air remains in place over our part of the world, suppressing thunderstorm development and keeping temperatures a little more in check. Wednesday looks pretty good by July standards, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s expected. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s should yield a peak heat index around 99°, generally after the seabreeze moves by. Thursday will run a degree or two warmer with a little bit more in the way of cloud cover as moisture starts to tick up somewhat. Peak heat indices should run around 100° during the mid-afternoon hours.

We get back to a more traditional July pattern of afternoon thunderstorms on Friday as more humid air begins to work back into the area. We start the day in the upper 70s and top out in the mid-90s before scattered thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and evening hours along the seabreeze. Heat indices could top out above 105°. We’ll keep this going into the weekend, too, with the potential for advisory-level warmth (heat index 110°+ for two hours) and scattered thunderstorms as the main weather concerns for outdoor activities.

Somewhat drier air (aloft, anyway) moving into the area Tuesday will put an end to the soggy weather for a few days, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm does remain possible. We start the day in the low 70s — the coolest start to a day since June 28 — before warming into the low 90s in the afternoon. While the drier air will provide for generally partly cloudy skies amidst a somewhat brilliant blue sky, it’ll still be fairly humid at the surface; expect heat indices to peak around 100° in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves by. All in all, though, we should have plenty of sun to help sop up this latest round of heavy rain.

The week ahead will feature what passes for a “cooldown” in mid-July followed by a return to temperatures running a few degrees above normal for this point in the year. But first, a soggy Monday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front take center stage. Some very heavy rain is possible, with another 1-2″ of rain possible across the area with locally higher amounts. We’ll have to watch for the potential for flooding as storms could train across some of the same spots repeatedly; there is also the matter of the 3:07 PM high tide to be concerned about, too, for downtown Charleston. The clouds and rain will keep highs in the mid-80s for the first time since June 23rd, so at least there’s a brief break from the heat. (Silver linings, etc.)

We have another hot day ahead on Sunday before showers and thunderstorms erupt once more generally in the mid-to-late afternoon and evening hours. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s will warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Ever-so-slightly drier air should keep heat indices below 105° and delay the onset of thunderstorms later than they started on Saturday. Storm coverage also should be a little thinner than Saturday as well. Still, a strong to severe storm can’t be totally ruled out, so stay alert for possible warnings, and just be ready to change outdoor plans to indoor ones if a thunderstorm approaches your area.

“Speak Now” (Taylor’s Version) is not the only thing that’s going to get replayed over and over this weekend — so it shall be with the forecast as well. Expect muggy starts in the mid-70s each morning (with temperatures struggling to get below 80° downtown) followed by high temperatures in the mid-90s each afternoon. Heat indices will peak around 105° each day. While that would be a Heat Advisory in June, it happens so frequently in July and August that the criteria is moved to 110° on July 1. So, even though there’s no advisory, the risk for heat stroke is elevated in the afternoons.

From there, scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the seabreeze as convective temperatures are reached, eliminating the cap that we’ll start the day with. Heavy rain and frequent lightning from slow-moving storms are the main concerns, and these will once again be mostly pulse-type storms (essentially pop up and fizzle out, much like Friday’s storms) with very weak wind shear in place. However, a damaging wind gust or two can never be totally ruled out where outflow boundaries get together and help improve lift, leading to stronger storms.

All in all, don’t expect a washout, but just be ready to move outdoor activities indoors at a moment’s notice. And stay hydrated!

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday and the weekend with an active seabreeze and plenty of heat and humidity. Highs each day will top out in the low to mid-90s, with heat indices over 105° expected. Sunday’s heat index could approach 110°, in fact. Airmass showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the early afternoon, with more activity kicking up along the inland-moving seabreeze as we head into the evenings. As always, keep up to date with forecast changes as small tweaks — such as the pocket of drier air aloft that enveloped the area Thursday, which kept thunderstorms to a dull roar — could mean a better (and vice versa) day of weather.

More showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday afternoon as a warm and humid atmosphere remains firmly in place across the area. Temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-90s before storms start to kick up after convective temperatures are met. Shear is weak and instability is about average, but there will still be plenty of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere, so expect frequent lightning and heavy rain with the stronger of Thursday’s thunderstorms. There will be the risk for storms to anchor a bit and rain a lot in one spot as westerly flow aloft fights against an inland-moving seabreeze. (Daniel Island knows all about this, with several stations on the island recording 2-3″ of rain in a couple hours’ time.) A damaging wet microburst or two can’t be discounted either especially near where outflow boundaries collide. Once again, keep an ear out for warnings and take it easy on the commute.

One more round of coastal flooding is possible with the Thursday night high tide at 11:43 PM. Expect water levels between 7.1-7.3′ to produce some minor flooding generally between 9 PM-1 AM. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be issued. From there, the astronomical influences of the full moon will wane further, and while water levels may get close on Friday night, we should be done with this round of king tides.

The rest of the work week will remain rather unsettled as very humid air remains in place across the area and impulses continue to ripple aloft.

Hot and humid conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with abatement coming in the form of seabreeze showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Temperatures will generally run in the mid-90s on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, then backing down a little to the low 90s on Friday. Heat indices will continue to run above 105° each afternoon through at least Thursday due to the combination of warm air temperatures and mid-70s dewpoints.

Thunderstorms each afternoon will be capable of very heavy rain in a short period — there were reports of nearly 3” in an hour in a few spots on Tuesday — and excessive lightning. Damaging wind gusts will be possible in the strongest storms, though a widespread severe weather event is not expected.

Finally, we’ll continue to deal with the potential for coastal flooding with the late high tides. High tide on Wednesday is at 10:48 PM; salt water flooding will generally be possible an hour or two on either side of high tide.

We will not get to declare independence from hot weather this July 4th, that’s for sure: After a balmy start in the upper 70s, temperatures will once again head into the mid-90s in the afternoon with heat indices running between 105-110°. Once again, you’re going to want to make sure you’re getting plenty of water and getting in the shade at times. Headed to the beach? Definitely deploy the sunscreen with the UV index forecast to be at 11, in the “Extreme” category.

As we get further into the afternoon and the seabreeze begins to move inland, we’ll see showers and thunderstorms begin to fire in a reasonably unstable environment. A storm or two could be on the strong to even severe side with gusty winds the main concern. Regardless of severity, the lightning a thunderstorm produces makes them all dangerous. This is especially important on a big outdoors day like the Fourth. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

Finally, there will be a risk for minor coastal flooding with high tide around 9:53 PM. This tide has already caused Folly Beach to cancel their fireworks, unfortunately, and may be problematic for other beach displays as well. Be ready to avoid flooded roadways an hour or two around high tide.

Be safe and enjoy your Fourth!