After what turned out to be a rather raucous and busy Tuesday in the weather department, we look to potentially have additional strong to severe storms develop on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area and mid-level energy comes up from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability should once again develop nicely, and with the assist from the pocket of energy aloft, there’s another shot at organized thunderstorms across the area. Severe weather should not be as widespread as it was today, but there will be the risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a tornado in the strongest storms. We could see a smaller but still organized line of thunderstorms come out of Georgia and move through the area in the 8-10 PM timeframe, so we’ll want to watch model trends on that carefully.

Outside of thunderstorms, it’ll be another warm and muggy day in the warm sector. Lows will bottom out just in the mid-60s, while highs should peak in the low 80s before thunderstorms develop.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Thursday morning before a cold front sweeps this mess offshore, setting us up for a pleasant — if not a touch chilly! — Friday and the weekend.

A vigorous complex of showers and thunderstorms will traverse the Southeast tomorrow, arriving here in the Lowcountry around early evening with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.

Tuesday’s severe weather potential has a little different feel in that there’s a good chance more instability will be available ahead of the line, as it should be coming through right in that sweet spot time of 5-10 PM or so. (Stay tuned for inevitable tweaks to exact timings as the storm system gets underway.) Wind shear is plentiful, on the order of 50-60 knots, and if thunderstorm updrafts can take advantage of instability rooted in the surface, there will be plenty of available energy for strong to severe thunderstorms. (More on this in a sec, though.) Despite expected cloud cover, the heat pump is on, and warm and moist air will flow into the area readily during the day, allowing for highs near 80°. Winds outside of thunderstorms will once again be gusty as well, with gusts 30+ MPH not out of the question particularly on elevated surfaces.

Damaging straight-line wind gusts are certainly the main concern, with probabilities high enough to drive an Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk in tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. However, tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storms as well as embedded within a squall line (if that ends up being the storm mode).

There are possible failure modes here, though. Forecast soundings from this evening’s models do show some capping trying to hold across the Charleston metro with an inversion a few thousand feet up and dry air entrainment trying to put a damper on an even more unstable environment. This could act as a governor on a more substantially widespread severe threat. We can’t bank on this, though, especially as wind shear remains strong enough to keep thunderstorm updrafts healthy.

Bottom line: Be ready for possible watches and warnings tomorrow. Keep weather radios in the alerting position and phones charged. Know what you’ll do if a warning is issued for your area. If you live in a mobile home, be thinking carefully about where you’ll go if severe weather threatens. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and mobile homes can be a tragic mix. A site-built structure will give you more protection in situations like these.

With any luck, we’ll see another round of storms fizzle out as it reaches Charleston. But if that doesn’t happen, you’ll be glad you were prepared.

The week ahead will feature a series of storm systems right in the middle of the work week followed by a return to below-normal temperatures for Friday and the weekend. A few severe storms could be in the mix, particularly on Tuesday. (And yes, it’ll be windy again.)

Monday starts out the work week with another partly cloudy and generally pleasant day. Temperatures will top out in the mid-70s, running a couple clicks cooler with winds shifting onshore. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our storm system, but we should still see plenty of sun for the duration of the day.

A warm front will lift north of the area early Tuesday, kicking off an unsettled period right smack dab in the middle of the work week. So far, it looks like the best — albeit still small — risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm in the Lowcountry will arrive on Tuesday given decent instability and a strong low-level jet, which — stop me if you’ve heard this before — will likely help to contribute to gusts pushing 40 MPH during the day Tuesday outside of thunderstorms. Given the elevated wind fields, thunderstorms could give a little extra “oomph” to these winds, creating a damaging wind threat.

On Wednesday, there’s no real forcing mechanisms around to kick off widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, but temperatures in the low 80s should allow for popup showers and thunderstorms to develop. Then on Thursday, one more cold front swings through in conjunction with a large, lumbering mid-level low centered over the Great Lakes, bringing one more round of showers and storms for this forecast period. Behind this front, temperatures will drop below early April normals for Friday and the weekend, with temperatures perhaps not getting out of the 60s. Fortunately, so far it doesn’t look like there will be any frost or freeze concerns, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

Work week rain can sometimes be a bummer, but we sure do need it as moderate drought continues to envelop the Lowcountry. If we can get it without severe weather, all the better.

We’ve got another winner of a weekend (weather-wise, anyway) in the cards, with seasonable temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s each afternoon and an appropriate mix of sun and clouds. The only fly in the ointment in this forecast could be a stray shower or two later Saturday evening primarily near the coast, but the chances of any one spot seeing rain are rather slim. Humidity will continue on the low side, too.. We truly couldn’t ask for much better weather for the Bridge Run and Flowertown Festival in Summerville this go-around. (Bridge runners, here’s your hourly forecast for the race.) Enjoy the weekend!

After another extraordinarily windy day yesterday — certainly seems to be quite the trend in 2022 — April begins with generally quieter weather as a cold front slips offshore and dry high pressure builds in. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the day, and temperatures will warm into the mid-70s, making for a rather pleasant day of weather across the Lowcountry. Winds will remain elevated today in the wake of the front, but will decrease as time goes on, and will certainly be nothing like the gusts we saw yesterday, which consistently peaked over 40 MPH and nearly touched 70 MPH on the Don Holt Bridge.

All looks good for the Bridge Run Saturday morning, and overall expect a nice weekend of weather aside from a slight shower chance late Saturday. More details later today.

Thursday will turn stormy as a weakening squall line, which has produced a fair bit of severe weather across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states, gets into the area during the day Thursday. While widespread severe weather doesn’t look terribly likely thanks to a dearth of instability, the wind fields are such that thunderstorms might not need much in the way of vertical growth to generate some damaging straight-line winds. Indeed, outside of thunderstorms, gusts approaching 40 MPH will certainly be possible, especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Low-level wind shear could briefly be supportive of a tornado, as well, but that risk is very low.

Expect showers possibly as early as 9-10am, with the best chance of rain and thunderstorms coming in the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain gear all day is a good call, but it’s not likely that any one spot will see rain all day, either.

Before rainfall arrives, temperatures will climb into the mid-to-upper 70s as warm air continues to pump into the area. Lows likely won’t drop below the mid-60s in most spots given the existing warm and moist airmass.

The good news is that this gets out of here relatively quickly, leaving nice and spring-like weather behind for Friday continuing into the Bridge Run on Saturday. The forecast for the run remains on track, with comfortable running temperatures and a light northeast breeze to maybe give you a little “oomph” on the Ravenel. (Lord knows I would need all the help I can get!)

A warm front will lift north across the Lowcountry on Wednesday, putting an end to this stretch of below-normal temperatures and getting us in the warm sector of the next storm system which will affect the area Thursday before clearing the area Friday morning, yielding a docile finish to the work week.

High pressure remains in control on Tuesday as it builds southward and down the East Coast. With the high centered to the north, winds will shift around more easterly and come in off the ocean. As a result, high temperatures will run cooler tomorrow thanks to the onshore flow as well as the loss of the downslope component to the wind that we get when it blows out of the northwest. Relative humidity values will be higher (though not uncomfortably so), making for much less fire danger for tomorrow and for the rest of the week.

Tuesday will be the last day of below-normal temperatures; a warm front will lift north of the area on Wednesday, sending temperatures back well into the 70s. Our next rain chance still looks timed for sometime Thursday afternoon and evening, all depending on the forward progress of a cold front. Severe weather appears quite unlikely at this juncture, but we’ll continue to keep an eye out for changes. Regardless of any severe storms, Thursday looks to be a rather windy day, with gusty winds continuing into Friday.

Bridge Runners, so far so good for the race, rain-wise, but we’ll be keeping a close eye on the potential for some storms at times this weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast gets further and further fine-tuning.