This week’s shower chances will peak Thursday as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast, spawning low pressure off the Florida coast. Expect shower activity to generally be scattered in nature, though, with some dry periods and maybe a few breaks in the clouds possible at times. Warmer air will make inroads as the wedge of high pressure which kept temperatures fairly well suppressed over the past few days begins to give way. Expect highs to top out in the low 70s in the afternoon as a result.
There will again be the risk for some minor coastal flooding with Thursday morning’s high tide, which is expected to peak around 9:33am. Much like Wednesday morning, water levels should reach 7-7.2′ again, which should be enough to put some salt water on the roads but not enough to begin to introduce widespread issues. Still, the vulnerable locations on the west side of the peninsula near The Citadel and Gadsden Green will likely take on salt water once again during the morning. Be ready to reroute around flooded roads.
Showers re-enter the weather picture for the second half of the work week, though we’ll warm up a little in the process. Expect overcast on Wednesday before scattered showers commence in the afternoon. It doesn’t look like it’ll be a terribly heavy rain, but it could be enough to make the roads a little slick, so be careful when commuting. Temperatures start in the low 50s and rise to about the mid-60s in the afternoon as the cool wedge of high pressure hangs on for one more day.
The wedge starts to weaken Thursday, and despite overcast with periods of showers continuing, temperatures will run a little warmer. Expect mid-50s to start with low 70s in the afternoon. A few peeks of sun will be possible Friday, though scattered showers are expected to continue. Temperatures will run even warmer Friday, with lows around 60° and highs in the low-to-mid-70s.
Minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible with the morning high tides heading into the weekend. Water levels will generally peak around 7-7.1′ or so each day, which is enough to put some salt water on vulnerable roads in downtown Charleston. The highest tide capable of producing flooding on Wednesday is predicted around 8:47am, Thursday a little after 9:30am, and Friday around 10:30am. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
After a dreary weekend, some sun begins to peek back out for Monday, and this will help temperatures get closer to — but still a touch below — mid-November norms. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 60s Monday through Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the low 70s starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend, with a slight cooldown for Sunday in the wake of a weak cold front.
Clouds will steadily increase through the first part of the work week as a reasonably vigorous disturbance ejects out of the southern Plains, with surface low pressure moving southeast from the Gulf Coast toward the Florida peninsula, dragging an inverted trough to its north that will help be a forcing mechanism for some shower activity here at home. There’s a slight chance of showers as soon as Wednesday, with rain chances peaking Thursday before gradually tapering Friday and perhaps into Saturday depending on the timing of the trough’s exit and the aforementioned front crossing the area. Most of Saturday should be rather nice, and Sunday will offer even more in the way of sunshine.
Legitimate sweater weather arrives Wednesday as the coldest air of the season thus far moves into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s but don’t expect temperatures to climb too much beyond the mid-50s despite lots of sunshine. In fact, we may at least tie a different kind of record high on Wednesday — the record low maximum temperature for November 1, which was also 55° last set in 2014.
Thursday looks to get off to the coldest start since early March, and a continued north to northeasterly breeze will drive the wind chill down to around or even below freezing. Dress accordingly in the morning! From there, highs will run a few degrees warmer than they did on Wednesday, but that’s not saying much as we’ll still see temperatures struggle to reach 60° despite unencumbered insolation. The record low maximum of 58° on Thursday is probably safe, but it’ll be close.
The airmass starts to moderate on Friday, though, as warmer air begins to work back into the area. We start Friday in the low 40s before warming to the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into the weekend, too, as we head back to the 70s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Changes are on the way on Halloween as a strong cold front moves across the area later in the day, bringing an uptick in cloud cover, maybe a shower or two, and a surge of the coldest air so far this season to start November. We start Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60° with just a few clouds to start. From there, expect cloud cover to gradually thicken as the front gets closer. We should see it get through sometime mid-afternoon into the early evening; you’ll notice it when winds shift around more to the north.
Trick-or-treaters will want a light jacket as temperatures cool into the 50s throughout the evening. As mentioned, a shower or two will be possible, but the risk is quite low.
The week ahead will feature the strongest cold snap of the season thus far sandwiched between a warm start and a warm finish. It’s a classic “shorts then sweaters” week of fall weather in the Lowcountry as a strong front moves by late on Halloween.
Rinse and repeat: More quiet and warm weather is on tap for Thursday (and beyond!) High pressure remains in control, and that’ll keep things rain-free and rather warm for late October. We start the day in the low 60s (for reference, the normal low for October 26 is 54°) and warm to around 80° in the afternoon. Much like Wednesday, we’ll see a few clouds amongst otherwise blue skies.
The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for some minor coastal flooding with the Thursday evening high tide. Water levels should peak between 7-7.2′ in the harbor, and this’ll cause some salt water to spill onto the typical trouble spots roughly an hour or two on either side of the 6:49 PM high tide. We’ll probably land a Coastal Flood Advisory during Thursday evening’s commute, so be ready to route around a little salt water especially around the Citadel and MUSC.
The story of this week’s weather will be high pressure keeping a firm grasp on the area for the rest of the week (and maybe even the rest of October). This will lead to generally quiet weather, with a warming trend bringing us into the low 80s starting around midweek. Monday will be the coolest of the set in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage; we start the day around 50° and warm into the low 70s in the afternoon with just a few clouds. Tuesday starts a touch cooler, but the warming trend will begin with temperatures reaching a little warmer in the afternoon. A decent stretch of above-normal warmth takes hold from there, with variable cloud cover but little else to write home about as moisture is generally scant. All in all, it’s not a bad week to get the car washed (note to self) and enjoy some outdoor lunches.
The only concern may end up being coastal flooding at times of high tide possibly starting as early as Tuesday. Winds will be out of the northeast as high pressure settles in to our northwest, and this combined with the upcoming full moon will once again start to send water levels above coastal flood criteria as we head into the latter half of the week. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.
A blocking pattern aloft will keep our weather relatively quiet for much of the week before a front approaches heading into the weekend, which might deliver the first real shot of fall weather to the area for early next week.
Cloud cover will generally be sparse through Wednesday as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Our mornings will generally start in the low to mid-60s with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon with plenty of sunshine to be had. Cloud cover begins to tick up a bit for Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned front begins to approach the area. It remains to be seen just how much moisture moves back into the area; for now, the forecast remains rain-free, though it wouldn’t shock me to see some shower or thunderstorm chances added as we head into Friday. Saturday should feature decreasing clouds, and then it looks like a reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in for Sunday that could knock temperatures well below normal for this point in the year. We aren’t into sweater weather yet, but we’re making progress!
