A cold front will continue to press south of the area this evening, clearing things out and cooling things off to kick off a stretch of pleasant weather. We’re gonna be pretty chilly to start this stretch off, though — lows Tuesday morning will dip into the upper 40s, but more notably, highs will only top out in the mid-to-upper 60s despite clear skies.

This chill will continue into Wednesday morning, with mid-40s lows a good bet in the metro area (trending even cooler in more rural areas). The trend will be warmer from that point forward, though, and before you know it we’re back in the 80s for Friday and the weekend.

Rain-free conditions will continue throughout the rest of the week into next Monday. Peeking ahead, it may not be until Wednesday before we start to see some showers work back into the forecast. Stay tuned for that, but in the meantime, enjoy the nice stretch of weather!

We’re looking at another unsettled day for Easter Sunday as a cold front sinks south of the area, stalls out, and disturbances ride atop it to generate more showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening hours.

We could have some showers in the area on Easter morning, but these should be relatively tame and not drop too much in the way of rain (though a downpour can’t be ruled out particularly as we get later into the morning). It’ll start out warm and muggy, with lows only getting into the mid-60s. A front will push southward across the area during the morning, as well, marked by winds shifting to the northeast. This will limit temperatures to the mid-70s at best.

The better rain chances will arrive later in the afternoon into the evening with another disturbance swinging through. We could see some substantial rain from this round, with some spots potentially seeing up to 1-2” of rain. This rain will persist overnight and into Monday, as well.

One thing we will need to watch very closely for late Sunday: Tides. With winds turning northeasterly and the ongoing perigee, water levels could approach moderate flood stage with the 9:37 PM high tide. If heavy rain is in the area leading up to or during these high tides, we will almost certainly see some decent flooding in parts of downtown Charleston. Not a given yet, for sure, but something to watch very closely to see if things line up.

If you’re celebrating, I hope you have a happy Easter!

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, packing a (thankfully weaker) line of showers and thunderstorms that will continue to lose oomph as it trudges ever eastward. We should get a majority of the day in rain-free, with only slight shower and storm chances as we get later into the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s despite the increased cloud cover. The better rain chances are pegged for later in the evening and into Friday morning, which you’ll want to keep in mind for dinner plans and beyond. Severe thunderstorms are highly unlikely in the Charleston metro area, with a low risk of severe weather around and west of I-95.

We’ve got another mostly sunny day in store for Tuesday. We’ll start the day about 10° warmer than we did today, bottoming out in the upper 50s as opposed to the 40s. Temperatures should reach the 80s away from places near the coast such as downtown or the islands, where we’ll run a few degrees cooler. The beaches themselves could run significantly cooler.

Quiet weather continues into at least Wednesday before a slight rain chance enters the weather picture Thursday as a front gets close to the area. On and off showers and storms will be possible thereafter, possibly through the weekend, as the front stalls nearby. The good news is that no severe weather is expected as the shear and instability parameters are solidly in the “meh” category, at least as far as the global models can resolve right now.

Thursday will start unsettled, but we will dry out as the day goes on as the cold front finally gets through the area, changing up the airmass and leading to a really gorgeous weekend. We will likely wake up to showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the area; this could have some commute impacts, but no severe weather is expected. Showers will gradually scour out throughout the day and we should end with a fair bit of sunshine. Highs will top out around 80° ahead of the front; that’ll be as warm as we get until next week.

The weekend looks pretty great, if not downright chilly at times. I hope you haven’t stowed your hoodies, because you’re gonna need them Saturday as highs only top out in the mid-60s! The April sun angle will make that feel pretty good, though. Savor these days — not many more of them until we get into the dredges of summertime in the Lowcountry.

After what turned out to be a rather raucous and busy Tuesday in the weather department, we look to potentially have additional strong to severe storms develop on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area and mid-level energy comes up from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability should once again develop nicely, and with the assist from the pocket of energy aloft, there’s another shot at organized thunderstorms across the area. Severe weather should not be as widespread as it was today, but there will be the risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a tornado in the strongest storms. We could see a smaller but still organized line of thunderstorms come out of Georgia and move through the area in the 8-10 PM timeframe, so we’ll want to watch model trends on that carefully.

Outside of thunderstorms, it’ll be another warm and muggy day in the warm sector. Lows will bottom out just in the mid-60s, while highs should peak in the low 80s before thunderstorms develop.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Thursday morning before a cold front sweeps this mess offshore, setting us up for a pleasant — if not a touch chilly! — Friday and the weekend.

A vigorous complex of showers and thunderstorms will traverse the Southeast tomorrow, arriving here in the Lowcountry around early evening with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.

Tuesday’s severe weather potential has a little different feel in that there’s a good chance more instability will be available ahead of the line, as it should be coming through right in that sweet spot time of 5-10 PM or so. (Stay tuned for inevitable tweaks to exact timings as the storm system gets underway.) Wind shear is plentiful, on the order of 50-60 knots, and if thunderstorm updrafts can take advantage of instability rooted in the surface, there will be plenty of available energy for strong to severe thunderstorms. (More on this in a sec, though.) Despite expected cloud cover, the heat pump is on, and warm and moist air will flow into the area readily during the day, allowing for highs near 80°. Winds outside of thunderstorms will once again be gusty as well, with gusts 30+ MPH not out of the question particularly on elevated surfaces.

Damaging straight-line wind gusts are certainly the main concern, with probabilities high enough to drive an Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk in tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. However, tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storms as well as embedded within a squall line (if that ends up being the storm mode).

There are possible failure modes here, though. Forecast soundings from this evening’s models do show some capping trying to hold across the Charleston metro with an inversion a few thousand feet up and dry air entrainment trying to put a damper on an even more unstable environment. This could act as a governor on a more substantially widespread severe threat. We can’t bank on this, though, especially as wind shear remains strong enough to keep thunderstorm updrafts healthy.

Bottom line: Be ready for possible watches and warnings tomorrow. Keep weather radios in the alerting position and phones charged. Know what you’ll do if a warning is issued for your area. If you live in a mobile home, be thinking carefully about where you’ll go if severe weather threatens. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and mobile homes can be a tragic mix. A site-built structure will give you more protection in situations like these.

With any luck, we’ll see another round of storms fizzle out as it reaches Charleston. But if that doesn’t happen, you’ll be glad you were prepared.

After another extraordinarily windy day yesterday — certainly seems to be quite the trend in 2022 — April begins with generally quieter weather as a cold front slips offshore and dry high pressure builds in. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the day, and temperatures will warm into the mid-70s, making for a rather pleasant day of weather across the Lowcountry. Winds will remain elevated today in the wake of the front, but will decrease as time goes on, and will certainly be nothing like the gusts we saw yesterday, which consistently peaked over 40 MPH and nearly touched 70 MPH on the Don Holt Bridge.

All looks good for the Bridge Run Saturday morning, and overall expect a nice weekend of weather aside from a slight shower chance late Saturday. More details later today.

Thursday will turn stormy as a weakening squall line, which has produced a fair bit of severe weather across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states, gets into the area during the day Thursday. While widespread severe weather doesn’t look terribly likely thanks to a dearth of instability, the wind fields are such that thunderstorms might not need much in the way of vertical growth to generate some damaging straight-line winds. Indeed, outside of thunderstorms, gusts approaching 40 MPH will certainly be possible, especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Low-level wind shear could briefly be supportive of a tornado, as well, but that risk is very low.

Expect showers possibly as early as 9-10am, with the best chance of rain and thunderstorms coming in the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain gear all day is a good call, but it’s not likely that any one spot will see rain all day, either.

Before rainfall arrives, temperatures will climb into the mid-to-upper 70s as warm air continues to pump into the area. Lows likely won’t drop below the mid-60s in most spots given the existing warm and moist airmass.

The good news is that this gets out of here relatively quickly, leaving nice and spring-like weather behind for Friday continuing into the Bridge Run on Saturday. The forecast for the run remains on track, with comfortable running temperatures and a light northeast breeze to maybe give you a little “oomph” on the Ravenel. (Lord knows I would need all the help I can get!)

High pressure remains in control on Tuesday as it builds southward and down the East Coast. With the high centered to the north, winds will shift around more easterly and come in off the ocean. As a result, high temperatures will run cooler tomorrow thanks to the onshore flow as well as the loss of the downslope component to the wind that we get when it blows out of the northwest. Relative humidity values will be higher (though not uncomfortably so), making for much less fire danger for tomorrow and for the rest of the week.

Tuesday will be the last day of below-normal temperatures; a warm front will lift north of the area on Wednesday, sending temperatures back well into the 70s. Our next rain chance still looks timed for sometime Thursday afternoon and evening, all depending on the forward progress of a cold front. Severe weather appears quite unlikely at this juncture, but we’ll continue to keep an eye out for changes. Regardless of any severe storms, Thursday looks to be a rather windy day, with gusty winds continuing into Friday.

Bridge Runners, so far so good for the race, rain-wise, but we’ll be keeping a close eye on the potential for some storms at times this weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast gets further and further fine-tuning.