Get ready for periods of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy rain and gusty winds at the coast as a tropical disturbance of some kind comes ashore south of the Charleston metro area in the afternoon. While it’s unclear what state the disturbance will be in by the time it arrives tomorrow, the impacts are largely expected to remain the same.

Most of us saw a dry day today, giving us a respite from the heavy downpours that have characterized June thus far. A cold front approaching from the west is going to put a swift end to this respite, though, as it runs into an atmosphere still plenty juiced up with tropical moisture and ready to wring out some more rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm coverage could begin to ramp up as early as tomorrow morning (and some guidance is fairly persistent in it firing up as soon as midnight), with the greatest risk of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms could produce torrential downpours which may produce isolated flooding episodes. Overall, 1-2” of rain will be possible across the area with locally higher amounts.

Additionally, there is the potential for wind damage to occur in some of the stronger thunderstorms, especially where outflow boundary collisions occur. Be alert for possible warnings in the afternoon.

The prevalence of showers and thunderstorms will act to keep high temperatures a few degrees below normal, generally running in the mid-80s. Heat indices will still climb into the 90s, though, thanks to the ever-present humidity.

Tropical Depression Claudette, which is moving through western Alabama this evening, will be taking a bit more of an easterly turn around the subtropical ridge, heading through northern Georgia and SC during the day on Sunday. This will, in turn, bring along another plume of tropical moisture into the area, setting up another round of heavy and perhaps flooding rain in spots, along with the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and maybe a tornado or two.

While the cold front that triggered last night’s deluge has slipped south of the area, it has stalled out nearby. With a little bit of help from some upper-level dynamics, we should see some isolated thunderstorms in the metro area this afternoon. A damaging wind or large hail episode is possible for a few of you, so stay alert across the area this afternoon. With that in mind, the severe threat certainly looks more isolated than we saw yesterday.

Highs top out near 90°; with a little less humidity behind the front, it won’t feel quite as swampy outside.

After today, we look to stay rain-free through Saturday with warm temperatures and low humidity by June standards.

Typical June weather continues for Tuesday. Temperatures will head up into the low 90s in the afternoon as westerly winds keep the seabreeze pinned to the coast. We’ll want to keep an eye on an upper-level disturbance as it swings through; this could help a few storms to get going in the afternoon, especially if the seabreeze can make some inland progress. There will be enough instability to support storms if enough lift is realized, and dry air in the mid-levels could portend a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. So, we’ll keep an eye on this, but it is more likely than not we get through Tuesday rain-free in a vast majority of spots — good news as we dry out from this past weekend’s deluge.

After what ended up being a raucous Saturday evening (for all the wrong reasons), we’ll start Sunday on the cool side of a frontal boundary that will stall out and dissipate midway between Savannah and Jacksonville. Low pressure will develop along the front and move away, keeping us in northeast to easterly flow. The rich atmospheric moisture that helped contribute to our flooding issues today will remain in place for Sunday. Guidance hints on the potential for some coastal rainfall in the morning as low pressure develops offshore and moves away, followed by scattered afternoon storms with the inland-progressing seabreeze (though this evening’s models are blessedly trending drier). With persistent weak storm motions expected, we’ll have to keep an eye on any downpours that can get going for an isolated flooding threat, particularly if they fire in the West Ashley to Downtown corridor along Highway 17, where 3-5″ of rain fell this evening.

The post-frontal airmass and onshore wind will keep things a touch on the cool side for June, with expected highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Unfortunately, this doesn’t come with much of a dip in dewpoints, so we’ll still be on the muggy side of comfortable.

Let’s hope the drier trends in guidance continue! (Side note: It’s amazing how fast we go from “we need the rain” to “make it stop” in summertime…)

Temperatures continue their upward climb on Thursday, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with dewpoints in the low 70s to yield heat indices approaching 100° for the first time this season. Some of us will see some relief from isolated to scattered showers and storms along the inland-marching seabreeze, but with high pressure holding firm, you can’t count on storms to cool you off. Where storms do form, brief downpours will be possible. As always during the warm season, we will want to watch outflow boundaries from collapsing storms as they can collide and help pop a few stronger storms.

We will turn increasingly unsettled as a trough begins to dig in starting Friday and into the weekend. This will send a frontal boundary our way which will help touch off more storms. Don’t cancel plans, but ensure you have indoor fallbacks for outdoor activities.

We’ve got one more day of scattered to numerous storms inland (we can’t seem to catch a raindrop here toward the coast) before ridging and drier air begins to put a bit of a lid on more widespread thunderstorm activity heading into Thursday and Friday. As storm coverage decreases, temperatures will increase, and we look in line for our first 100° heat indices of the year come Friday. A storm or two will still be possible, which may bring some brief relief, but be ready to pay a little more attention to hydration and time outside later this week.

We’ll continue our risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday into much of Tuesday. Like today, we could see some showers swinging through early in the morning. More scattered showers and storms should pop as daytime heating builds across the area. We’ll see this risk shift inland with the seabreeze by evening. Severe weather is unlikely, but this time of year we always have to be wary of outflow boundaries and their intersection helping to briefly intensify thunderstorm updrafts.

Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s thanks to cloud cover and the presence of scattered showers and storms. The humidity will make it feel more like the low 90s. A warming trend continues throughout the week; we’re in the 90s by Friday.

It’s been another rough day of precipitation. Last night, McClellanville and then Downtown Charleston took the brunt of it, and today it was the Goose Creek area. Rain gauges in the Crowfield Plantation/College Park area recorded 4-6″ of rain in just about two hours as strong to severe thunderstorms (which dropped quarter-size hail on Goose Creek) essentially parked themselves until they gusted out.