After some beneficial rain so far this Wednesday, we’ll see shower and storm chances taper off this evening as low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area. There is still the risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm for the next few hours (generally through sundown), so we’ll want to be keeping an eye on the radar for the next little bit.
We take a break from rain on Thursday with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for St. Patrick’s Day. Temperatures will rise from the mid-50s in the morning to the mid-70s in the afternoon, and dewpoints in the 50s will make for a good middle ground between “too dry” and “too muggy.” Overall, not a bad St. Patrick’s Day, where the beer will hopefully be more green than the radar.
We’ll warm to near 80° on Friday with increasing cloud cover as another storm system moves through the Mid-South on its way to the Mid-Atlantic. Rain chances look to hold off until late, though. A few thunderstorms will be possible overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, and there once again is the potential for one or two of those to produce damaging wind gusts if conditions line up just right. We’ll keep an eye on how this evolves as nocturnal severe weather is, well, sub-optimal.
Slight shower and storm chances persist into Saturday, after which a cold front will come through and help deliver a rather beautiful Sunday with decreasing cloud cover and highs in the low 70s.
We’ll return to the 70s tomorrow despite increasing cloud cover as high pressure continues to extend offshore at the surface, pumping in some warmer air on the back end of its circulation. No frost or freeze issues are expected Tuesday morning as temperatures look to stay well in the 40s in the morning.
We’ll be watching an upper low as it cuts off around the Arklatex tonight and slowly rumbles through Mississippi tomorrow. This will help to spin up surface low pressure which will traverse the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this low, moisture influx will increase, hence the increasing cloud cover. A few showers will be possible after sunset Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
The bulk of the rain, though, looks to fall on Wednesday as the surface and upper lows move by the area. We get a break on Thursday before another storm system swings by Friday. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this point in the year, with mid-70s expected by mid-week.
After today’s rather impressive cold frontal passage, an Arctic airmass settles into the area tonight into Sunday. A Freeze Warning is in effect through Sunday morning as lows head into the 20s across much of the metro area. Regardless of where you are, I’d take precautions with your plants tonight with freezing temperatures possible all the way to the coast.
Sunday won’t warm too terribly much. Highs will only top out in the low 50s despite full sunshine as the abnormally cold and dry airmass dominates our weather. It’ll be exceptionally dry, too, with relative humidity values dropping below 25% in the afternoon. Jackets and lip balm will be important on Sunday!
The good news is that this is March, and this will be relatively short-lived — we’ll be back in the 70s by Tuesday after one more light freeze possibly Sunday night into Monday morning.
Saturday could be a bit of a wild day of weather across the Lowcountry. We’ll start with a strong cold front bringing a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in the morning, and we’ll finish with Arctic air rushing into the area, leading to a hard freeze for many of us Sunday morning.
A warm front lifts north of us tonight, putting us squarely in the warm sector of a storm system that will approach the area tomorrow before stalling out nearby Thursday. While we reside in that warm sector tomorrow, good turning of winds with height and decent instability will promote a risk for thunderstorms, a few of which could become severe. The main severe weather risk will be from damaging wind gusts, but if a supercell or two can get going, that will come along with an elevated risk for hail or even a tornado. Suffice to say, you’ll want to stay close to reliable and redundant sources of severe weather information tomorrow afternoon into the evening. NOAA Weather Radio is a great way to get alerts, and if it is enabled to do so, your phone can automatically alert you to tornado warnings, no app required.
Due to the risk of severe weather, the statewide tornado drill originally scheduled for Wednesday morning as part of South Carolina Severe Weather and Flood Safety Week has been moved to Friday at 9am.
We will have a lull in the severe weather threat on Thursday, but expect plenty of showers and even a few thunderstorms to linger as the front remains stalled out close by. Another risk of severe weather is possible late Friday into early Saturday morning as another front approaches the area. This front will bring cold high pressure for later Saturday into Sunday, with the risk of a freeze on Sunday morning.
Cloud cover and eventually shower chances return to the forecast tomorrow as a cold front edges closer to the area. The clouds will help keep the morning rather balmy — 64° is the forecast low, just a few degrees below the normal high for this point in the year. Highs will head into the mid-to-upper 70s, but won’t quite be able to reach 80° given the increase in cloud cover and the development of scattered showers in the afternoon. It won’t rain all afternoon, but be ready for that potential especially during the evening commute.
Rain chances continue to ramp up this week as the cold front stalls across the area, with more widespread rain expected to develop Wednesday into Thursday. Rain stays in the forecast through Saturday until a cold front shifts offshore, shutting off precipitation and ushering in some very cold air — perhaps reaching freezing — for Sunday away from the immediate coast.
We set a record high today at downtown Charleston: 80° broke the record of 79° set in 1976. We’ll get a brief interlude in the warmth Friday as high pressure wedges southward across the area, turning winds more northeasterly and kicking up the cloud cover to keep temperatures running about 15-20° cooler than we saw today. Moisture is scant, though, so no rain is expected — we’ll just be chilled out briefly before the wedge front lifts northward on Saturday, returning us to the 70s and 80s for the weekend. We remain rain-free through Tuesday before the pattern turns more unsettled as we get deeper into the next work week.
Tuesday looks to be a rather nice day across the area as early cloud cover moves away in the afternoon, yielding temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70° as more sunshine begins to filter in. High pressure will be building in and taking residence over the area for several days, which will keep fair and increasingly warm weather in the forecast as we kick off meteorological spring, which runs from March 1 to May 31.
The only weather-ish concern will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding with the ~7am high tide Tuesday. Water levels could peak around 7.0-7.2′, putting some salt water on vulnerable roadways particularly on the western side of the peninsula near the Joe and MUSC. Any flooding should be relatively short-lived, and with winds shifting offshore after tomorrow, the risk for coastal flooding will end just as quickly as it arrived.
We’ll run a little cloudier and cooler on Sunday as increased moisture and an approaching upper-level system come together across the area. There will be some breaks in the clouds from time to time to let some sun peek through, but overall expect highs to top out in the low-to-mid-60s. Rain should hold off until after dark when the best ingredients pass by, though, so you should be able to get at least a fair bit of Sunday in rain-free. If you’ve got outdoor activities in the afternoon and evening hours, monitoring radar trends for a few showers is a good idea, but there are no other major concerns with the forecast.
Wednesday was a very unusually warm February day in the Lowcountry. The high of 86° handily obliterates the daily record for February 23 of 82° set in 2018, but today also marked just the fourth time since records began in 1938 that the high temperature reached 86° in February. Previously, this happened on February 25, 2018, February 16, 1989 (when the high was 87°, setting the all-time February record), and February 28, 1962.
We look to take another trip into the 80s tomorrow. While surface flow coming a touch more off the Atlantic may modulate temperatures a bit, it is still certainly possible we may at least tie the daily record of 83° set in 2018. Fog may be a greater issue tonight and tomorrow morning, though, with lighter winds making for more favorable conditions for fog development. This fog could be dense, so be ready for visibility restrictions as you commute Thursday morning. The slightly more onshore trajectory could also help spread sea fog inland later in the day, which would have a chilling effect on temperatures as well. As usual with our weather, there’s so many variables to watch, even when there’s no precipitation involved. But regardless, prepare for another absurdly warmer-than-normal February day.
