A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight across the Charleston metro area. Protect sensitive plants and bring in your pets tonight. We should stay just above freezing closer to the coast, but some frost can’t be ruled out. Best bet is to err on the side of caution and go ahead and protect that vegetation.

After an unexpectedly cool day in which temperatures did not get out of the 50s for the first time since February 18, we have another rather chilly day ahead for Tuesday despite full sunshine. Air temperatures to start the day will run in the low 40s in the immediate metro area (and cooler than that further inland), but factor in a decent 5-10mph northwest breeze and it’ll feel closer to the mid-30s in the morning.

As the day goes on, freezing levels will drop close to 4,000 feet and occasionally breezy northwest winds will continue to pump cooler air into the area, keeping surface temperatures in the upper 50s at best in the afternoon. This is more in line with early January normals than mid-March. A very dry atmospheric column will preclude anything in the way of cloud cover, so sunshine will be brilliant and unfettered at least, and should make the resulting cool air temperature feel a little better.

Today’s high was 87°, breaking the record of 86° set in 1961 while also being the warmest day of the year so far in 2023. Downtown got in on the record warmth action, too: the high of 84° broke the record of 83° set in 1945 and tied in 1961.

This changes drastically starting Wednesday. Lows in the 60s turn into lows in the mid-40s; highs in the 80s drop off 20°+ to the mid-60s in the wake of a front that is ushering in some much more seasonable — if not slightly below normal — temperatures for this point in the year. Winds may be gusty overnight as the cooler air moves in, and we’ll stay a little breezy through a good bit of Wednesday. The ongoing cool advection will counteract the otherwise mostly sunny skies to yield those mid-60s highs.

February — and meteorological “winter” — will close on an abnormally warm note. Today’s high of 86° at the airport tied the record high first set in 1962. This stretch of record warmth looks to continue as we kick off March and meteorological spring, but there are signs that cooler weather is on the horizon, both this weekend and in the longer term.

After setting a new record high on Tuesday (83°, breaking the record of 82° last set in 2019), we’ll take another shot at the record books on Wednesday as highs look to once again top out in the lower 80s. The NWS forecast explicitly ties the record high of 82° last set in 2018, and it’s certainly plausible we’ll break that record.

Thursday will represent the peak of the warmth before a cold front gets closer on Friday. The record high of 86° on Thursday, while not explicitly forecast to be broken, will still be well within striking distance and has a chance to fall. Friday’s high of 82° will also be in range of the record high of 84°, though that record may be a little tougher to realize with increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front that will cool things down markedly for Saturday (and bring some rain chances, as well). That cooldown will be short-lived, though, as we head back well above normal for Sunday and beyond.

After reaching a lovely 70° on Valentine’s Day, we will climb even higher into the 70s for Wednesday as southerly flow on the back side of high pressure and ridging aloft turns the heat pump up. We’ll see a little more in the way of cloud cover, but still expect plenty of sunshine.

Thursday turns even warmer as a cold front gets closer and compressional heating starts to come into play a bit more. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Incredibly, this will not even be close to a record — the record high of 87°, set in 1989, looks to remain solidly intact.

Rain returns to the weather picture on Friday, though unlike the last few weeks, it won’t hang around for the weekend. Expect highs to top out early in the day around 72° before the front and its associated showers arrive in the area. Said front cools us off below normal for Saturday before a little rebound in temperatures for Sunday, but the operative thing here is that the sun will be out for both days this time — quite a rare occurrence lately.

Mother Nature’s Valentine’s Day gift to Charleston is beautiful weather as high pressure remains in control. We’ll start Tuesday in the low 40s before temperatures rebound to around 70° under mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will run in the low-to-mid-40s, yielding comfortable relative humidity values — overall, should be a nice day to enjoy some lunch outdoors. The only fly in the ointment may be the winds shifting to the south around 10-15 MPH at times. Other than that, though, no cold shoulder this year.

We turn much warmer Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds continue ahead of a cold front which arrives Friday. Temperatures will jump to around 80° on Wednesday and could exceed 80° on Thursday despite increasing cloud cover. While we could get within striking distance of Wednesday’s record high of 82° set in 1989, we’ll be a far cry from Thursday’s daily record which is 87°, also set in 1989.

A cold front and associated band of showers moves through the area on Friday, limiting highs to the low 70s early in the day and cooling us off pretty quickly in the evening. The good news is that this rain won’t linger — the sun will be back out on Saturday, and a rain-free (albeit much cooler) weekend is expected.

We stay in the 70s for the rest of the work week ahead of a storm system that will cool us back off for the weekend. Cloud cover increases Wednesday, but that won’t stop temperatures from heading even warmer than they did Tuesday with highs expected in the mid-70s. Thursday should represent the peak of the warmth, with solid mid-70s expected across the area ahead of the storm system. Showers look to begin late Thursday and will last into Saturday morning, with the main rain event on Friday. Highs will still top out in the low 70s on Friday after starting the day in the low 60s — closer to the average high for February 10 as opposed to the average low. Once the front is through later Friday/early Saturday, temperatures will head back to a little below normal for the weekend.

No major weather concerns to write home about for Tuesday. There may be some patches of fog in the morning, but nothing too heinous or concerning (though if you do run into fog, make sure you’re using your low beams and keeping some extra following distance). Otherwise, temperatures around 40° will rise into the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, making for a nice day across the Lowcountry.

After a soggy couple days, we get a respite from some of the rain on Wednesday as we sit between storm systems and high pressure sinks south across the area. Fog may be an issue in the morning once again, so be ready with the low beams and a little extra time to get where you’re going. Temperatures should peak in the low 70s in the afternoon before cooler high pressure and an associated wedge front press southward across the area later in the day. It remains to be seen just how far south the wedge can get, but expect it to help cool temperatures to around 50° in the morning on Thursday.

I’d consider mid-60s to be a best-case scenario for temperatures on Thursday as it will be highly dependent on the position of the wedge front. It is expected to lift a little more northward as a warm front during the day Thursday with shower chances throughout the day. However, rain chances tick up later in the day into the overnight, and the rain falling into the cool wedge should strengthen it and allow it to sink back into the Lowcountry by evening. We stay wedged in Friday as showers move across the area for a majority of the day ahead of a storm system. It’ll be chilly on Friday, with lows in the upper 40s giving way to highs in the mid-50s at best with rain blanketing the area as low pressure traverses the Gulf Coast and moves across the Florida panhandle, staying south of us and keeping us in the cool sector.

Chilly weather continues into Saturday, though with a much-needed shot of sunshine before another storm system begins to affect the area on Sunday. For now, though, keep the rain gear nearby!