We’re headed back to the 90s as we head back to work and, for the last week this year, school. We’ll see a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze on Tuesday, with chances starting near the coast around noon-ish, then migrating inland for the rest of the afternoon. Not everyone sees storms. Expect highs to top out in the upper 80s.
As drier air filters in aloft, we’ll have less cloud cover, less of a shot at afternoon thunderstorms, and thus better opportunities to reach the low 90s each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. A front will get closer to the area on Friday; compressional heating ahead of the front should send us back to the 90s in the afternoon but with a greater risk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Peeking toward the weekend, it appears the front is going to stall out and hang around. This, combined with an infusion of tropical moisture from the south, could keep the weekend somewhat unsettled. With the front by and high pressure wedging southward, though, we should run a few degrees cooler than we have been as of late (mid-80s as opposed to low 90s). We’ll keep a close eye on this as time goes on for fine-tuning.
In any event — stay cool and keep on watering for at least the next few days as moderate drought continues across the Lowcountry.
The forecast turns a touch quieter for a couple days as a front sags south across the area, capping the atmosphere off a bit and limiting shower and thunderstorm development. Expect partly cloudy skies for Wednesday and Thursday with highs topping out generally in the mid-80s. While you can never totally discount a shower or storm this time of year, strong capping on the atmosphere should prevent much in the way of storms.
Rain chances return on Friday as a surface cold front, aided by a trough of low pressure aloft, approach the area. We’ll see plenty of moisture streaming into the area thanks to the upper-air configuration, which should aid numerous showers and thunderstorms heading into Friday afternoon and evening. (Not exactly great timing for the Spoleto opener.) The atmosphere will be pretty juiced, too, allowing for heavy rainfall to be an issue in some spots. We’ll want to keep an eye out for flooding as a result. We do need the rain, but perhaps not all at once! With the rain and cloud cover in the area, expect high temperatures in the mid-80s after starting in the low to mid-70s.
No mincing words: Here comes the heat. Mostly sunny skies combined with high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring us a period of hot weather to close out the work week.
Wednesday will be the last day of the warm-but-not-horribly-humid weather. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the warmer coastline on our way to flirt with 90° once again in the afternoon. The saving grace will be dewpoints in the mid-50s at peak heating, which will help keep heat indices well in check.
Southerly winds, though, will begin to send warm and humid air into the area. Thursday should feature the hottest temperatures thus far this season, with highs in the mid-90s expected away from the coast. Heat indices will run into the upper 90s given the elevated humidity (though certainly not quite as bad as, say, July or August). Mostly sunny skies will persist, so don’t count on cloud cover — much less a thunderstorm — to cool things off briefly.
We should see similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures for Friday — not that it is much consolation given the NWS forecast highs are topping out in the low 90s still. Skies will once again be mostly sunny and devoid of afternoon thunderstorms.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon into next week as the ridge aloft breaks down a bit. We have a few days of scattered storm chances in the offing getting into next week along with cooler temperatures as a cold front moves across the area before stalling, so the good news is that this won’t last forever. For now, though, stay cool and keep on watering in the evenings.
We’ve got one more really good weather day in store for Wednesday before low pressure drifts westward toward the coast, bringing in periods of showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday, leaving some scattered shower activity around for Saturday as well. We could definitely use the rain, and it doesn’t look like there will be any severe weather coming along for the ride, either — a win-win situation considering our worsening drought situation. (We could still see a few thunderstorms, though, and lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous.)
Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday given continued northward winds and then rain-cooled air, especially as we get into Friday. Peeking ahead toward the weekend, though, we will begin to see temperatures rebound into the mid-to-upper 80s as winds go more southerly, with the 90s returning to the picture on Monday. Savor the cooler weather while we’ve got it, because we’ve got fewer and fewer days like this ahead until the fall.
Our warm start to May continues for the rest of the work week as Atlantic high pressure and ridging aloft build across the area. We should see our first 90° reading of the year on Thursday. This comes a few weeks earlier than we saw 90° for the first time last year, but overall, we touch 90° in the first week of May more often than not. We stay warm on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west, perhaps getting close to 90° once again.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will factor into the forecast each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze, with a pulse severe thunderstorm or two possible with damaging downburst winds and perhaps some large hail. Widespread severe weather is not expected, and I suspect that the best chances for a severe storm will be found where outflow boundaries and/or the seabreeze intersect, giving a little more oomph to thunderstorm updrafts.
We should see an uptick in shower and storm coverage on Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front gets a little closer; however, these storms will remain generally scattered. Keep an eye out for storms Friday evening and be ready to bring outdoor activities indoors quickly if lightning approaches. If you’re hearing thunder or seeing lightning strikes, you’re close enough to be struck!
The front will get into the area on Saturday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air moves in Sunday, gradually scouring out precipitation and cloud cover while bringing temperatures back down closer to early May normals (low 80s).
After a cold front gets through tonight, we’ll see another round of cooler and drier air move into the area to set up a fantastic finish to the work week. Temperatures will run around 10° cooler tomorrow afternoon with plenty of sunshine — an excellent day for outdoor lunch, getting some walking in, or however you wish to be outside. This continues into Thursday, which will be another brilliantly beautiful day with highs once again topping out in the mid-70s. We’ll start to see a little bit of a warming trend commence on Friday as high pressure moves offshore, sending winds more southerly. Still, it’ll be another really nice day with lows in the mid-50s and highs in the upper 70s. The warming trend continues into the weekend, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday and in the mid-80s on Sunday. Enjoy!
No complaints in this forecast: Plenty of sun will continue as temperatures embark on a warming trend as the work week progresses. Temperatures on Wednesday will start out rather chilly by April standards, dipping into the low 40s in the metro and possibly into the upper 30s further north into rural locations. Not expecting frost to become an issue, though. After a high of 68° today, highs will top out a touch warmer, likely around 70°. Skies will be mostly sunny once again, belying the cool airmass which remains in place.
A warming trend then commences on Thursday as high pressure slips a bit offshore. This will bump highs into the mid-70s, much closer to where we typically find ourselves in mid-April. There will be a few more clouds with moisture coming in off the Atlantic, but that will just make the skies a little more interesting to look at. High pressure retreats back to the west a little bit for Friday, clearing skies a bit. More notably, though, we’ll see high pressure begin to stack aloft, allowing for temperatures to warm even more noticeably into the upper 70s to around 80° for Friday.
The great weather continues into the weekend, too, with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature at the surface and aloft. It’s great to be able to say that there are absolutely no weather concerns for High Water Fest this year! (Well, other than that you’ll definitely want sunscreen.)
Warmer-than-normal conditions continue this week despite a weak front poking into the area on Friday. Temperatures will generally run in the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with slightly cooler and drier air on Friday behind the front.
Said front will usher in some shower and storm chances starting Thursday afternoon. The best chances of showers and storms will arrive overnight Thursday into Friday with the frontal passage. The front will stall out nearby on Friday, perhaps keeping a shower or storm chance in play across the Charleston metro during the day.
The severe weather threat looks very low and, at least as of right now, should stay generally west of I-95. Will keep an eye on it, but the ingredients look incredibly marginal. (I don’t think anyone’s complaining about this, either.) With the area remaining in drought even after last week’s rains, we’ll take what we can get — bonus points if it arrives without severe weather.
Peeking ahead toward the weekend, unsettled weather does continue to appear probable, but the models are disagreeing quite a bit on the details still. Temperatures should remain on the warm side of normal, though, through the weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more fine-tuned.
A warm front will lift north across the Lowcountry on Wednesday, putting an end to this stretch of below-normal temperatures and getting us in the warm sector of the next storm system which will affect the area Thursday before clearing the area Friday morning, yielding a docile finish to the work week.
Up-and-down weather will finish out the work week with a nearly equal mix of nice and unsettled mixed in.
Wednesday will be the stormiest day of the set as surface low pressure and its parent upper low continue to rumble eastward into the area. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms for a good bit of the day on Wednesday. One thing we’ll want to watch is if any instability can develop; if so, wind shear will be enough to support some strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. With rain in the area, highs should top out around 70° at best, which will put a governor on any severe threat that might materialize.
The storm system departs overnight Wednesday, and by Thursday, we clear out a bit, allowing for good sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Should be a nice day to get out and about for lunch!
Friday starts out fairly nice as well — mid-50s for lows remain well above normal for this point in the year — before cloud cover increases ahead of another cold front. Showers could work into the area as early as the afternoon and evening hours, but the best risk of rain from this next storm system will be in the area for Saturday. Sunday, though, looks good with comfortable temperatures and ample sunshine.
