A solid pollen rinse is in the offing this week as a cold front is forecast to stall over the area, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the area for much of the upcoming work week.
First, though, we have one more day of great weather teed up for Monday. It’ll be a good day to catch a meal outside at some point during the day with highs once again topping out in the low 80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
A cold front will then approach the area on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the day on Tuesday, though it won’t rain all day. The front will stall out across the area on Wednesday, and waves of low pressure will ripple along it, keeping persistent cloud cover, shower, and even some thunderstorm chances in play. Our best rain chances right now look to be in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Saturday should still feature some showers, but rain chances will be headed down as one final cold front pushes through the area, which will bring quite a cooldown to the area — think upper 50s for Sunday’s highs, which is quite a bit below normal for this point in the year. If you’ve not planted, think about delaying a bit longer — we could be talking frost and freeze issues heading into mid-March, because that’s what March does.
We do need the rain, that’s for sure — we are running way behind so far this year and are getting into quite a drought. The pollen rinse will certainly help, too!
February gives way to March this week with very little fanfare in the weather department. We start the week with temperatures running a touch below normal, but a gradual warmup is in the cards as we get through the work week before we approach 80° by the weekend. High pressure will keep things rain-free for the next few days, though it may be a little more cloudy than we might like Monday into Tuesday.
The only main weather concern this week will be the risk for minor coastal flooding with the Monday and Tuesday morning high tides thanks to persistent northeast flow and the upcoming new moon. The 6:03am high tide Monday morning could clip 7’. Tuesday morning’s will run a little higher around 7.2-7.4’, which could close a few vulnerable roads near the edges of the Charleston peninsula. Beyond then, winds begin to go around to the north and then the west, which will cut down the coastal flooding risk for the rest of the week.
After a really nice, seasonable weekend, temperatures will climb back into the 70s again on Monday, with 80s returning to challenge record highs by mid-week. A cold front looks to snap us back to more seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
Precipitation-wise, there will be a slight chance for some showers on Monday as a coastal trough develops and brings Atlantic moisture inland, but we otherwise look to stay dry through Friday, when the front brings a small chance of showers to the area.
With such warm temperatures and cooler shelf waters, sea fog is certainly a possibility over the next few days. This may impact visibility and temperatures at times, especially near the coast.
This week’s forecast is largely straightforward and gets better as the week wears on. We’ll get much of the rain out of the way Monday morning, with shower chances diminishing heading into the evening as coastal low pressure departs. Monday’s going to be the chilliest day of the set with highs struggling to crack 50° thanks to the showers and persistent cold wedge.
Cloud cover and maybe a shower or two will linger to start Tuesday, but we’ll be trending clearer as the day goes on. Highs top out in the mid-50s. From there, temperatures begin to trend at or even above normal with several days of quiet weather on tap from Wednesday to at least Saturday if not beyond. There is a little model noise around some rain in the area by next Sunday, but agreement and consistency is meh at the moment. For now, the NWS forecast maintains dry but slightly cooler weather for Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on that in case it changes!
After a couple rather chilly weeks, we’ll give the heavy jackets a bit of a rest as ridging builds in aloft. We start the week with low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and highs in the low-to-mid-60s with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover ticks up a little bit for Wednesday, but so do temperatures as we get close to 70° in the afternoon. By Thursday, another storm system will be approaching from the west, but we should top out in the low 70s before it starts to get into the area. Right now our best rain chance arrives Friday as the cold front gets through. Saturday will turn much cooler with highs back in the mid-50s. This continues into Sunday, with perhaps a slight rain chance as moisture overruns a wedge of high pressure at the surface.
Overall, the forecast is looking a bit quieter (at least right now) as we head into the final full week of January (yes, already). Below-normal temperatures (normal highs for late January are around 60°) will continue as the overall pattern continues to show a ridge in the west and a trough in the east, keeping this side of the country in cooler temperatures and in a more active storm track overall.
Monday looks to be a repeat of today without the 21° start or the falling ice onto the Ravenel Bridge. We’ll start the day again around freezing, but that will be fairly short-lived as temperatures will top out in the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies. Low pressure sliding south of the area could toss some moisture in play on Tuesday with a slight shower chance across the area, but temperatures will remain above freezing. We run a little cooler Wednesday and again on Thursday as a front comes by, with another hard freeze possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
By Friday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as we watch for an area of low pressure that looks to develop off the coast of Florida and move northeastward. The global models are pretty far apart on the position of a trough that would push the low further offshore. Right now the ECMWF (Euro) solution favors a dry forecast for us, while the GFS has been slower on the trough and thus keeps the low a little more eastward, spreading some precipitation ashore. We’ll wait to see how things develop, but for now, NWS has kept the area rain-free as we head into Friday and the weekend, which will continue to be significantly cooler than normal. Right now, the forecast shows mornings in the 20s and highs in the mid-40s on Saturday and low 50s on Sunday with generally quiet weather. Stay tuned for changes here, though.
We’ll see some showers and thunderstorms overnight as a cold front approaches the area. No severe weather is expected, but some gusty winds and brief heavy downpours are possible as the line gets through. Rain should clear the area before daybreak.
Once the front is through, temperatures will plummet and clouds will scour out. Expect high temperatures to only top out around the mid-50s with some afternoon sunshine. Then, we’ll have a pretty cold night overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with lows getting into the upper 20s in the metro area away from the coast. Highs on Tuesday will only top out in the upper 40s despite full sunshine.
After another somewhat hard freeze Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate some as an upper disturbance approaches from the west and high pressure slips offshore. We might see a few showers Thursday morning as the disturbance swings through, but will close the work week with mostly sunny skies. Showers re-enter the realm of possibilities for the weekend as another front approaches the area. Temperatures will remain generally around if not a click or two below normal.
Tonight’s forecast is rather tricky. We’ve had a good bit of rain across much of the Tri-County today that has helped to knock temperatures back into the 60s in most spots, but it is still conceivable that a few severe thunderstorms may develop overnight.
After a cold front came through and chilled us way out today, we will stay in this chilly pattern for a few more days ahead of a late-week warmup as high pressure wedges into the area. Monday looks to remain dry with peeks of sun amongst the clouds; chilly northeasterly winds will keep highs suppressed in the low 50s. Low 50s may be very optimistic for Tuesday’s highs given the potential for strengthening northeasterly winds and expected rainfall around a low pressure system throughout the day helping to reinforce the cool wedge.
Said storm system departs Wednesday, allowing us to dry out and warm up a little bit with highs near 60° in the afternoon. Even fewer clouds look to be an issue for Thursday as temperatures once again approach 60°.
By Friday, we will be heading into a warming trend that’ll put us in the upper 60s to low 70s for Christmas Day with continued sunny skies. Certainly no concerns for sleigh aviation overnight Friday into Christmas morning on Saturday, which is always welcome news.
Aside from the storm system on Tuesday, we’ll need to watch morning high tides this week for the potential for coastal flooding given the recent full moon and strong northeasterly winds. A major coastal flooding event is not expected, but minor salt water flooding could cause a few roads to take on water. We’ll especially need to watch Tuesday in case heavy rain coincides with high tide. Fortunately, as the pressure gradient near the coast relaxes, so will the coastal flooding threat.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will make for a quiet and increasingly warm work week across the Lowcountry. We’ll start Monday on a chilly note as lows should dip into the 30s across much of the area away from the immediate coast. Highs will top out in the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. We turn a little warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday, starting out with mid-40s and ending in the upper 60s. As high pressure slips offshore, we’ll start to see even more of a warming trend establish itself to close out the week, with highs in the 70s Thursday through Saturday. Our next front and rain chance looks to arrive Sunday, with showers possible and highs topping out in the mid-60s. Other than that, though, there are no weather worries to speak of other than the potential for drought to continue to expand across parts of the Southeast.
