A showery and cool weekend awaits as a trough remains draped over the eastern US, driving disturbances through the area and keeping temperatures well below normal for this point in the year.
Saturday starts in the low 70s, warming only to the upper 70s for the first time since May under mostly cloudy skies. Shower chances will be highest in the morning and will taper, but not completely cease, during the day. Rainfall amounts should be generally light, though you can never totally rule out a pocket of heavier rain or two.
Sunday’s rain chances will tick up some as the day goes on as another disturbance moves through. It’ll be another cooler-than-normal day, with a pretty seasonable start in the mid-to-upper-60s before highs once again top out in the upper 70s in the afternoon. A rumble of thunder isn’t totally out of the question as the stationary front continues to hang out, but otherwise, just be ready for some showers at times.
It’s a Meat Loaf-like Labor Day weekend this year: Two out of three ain’t bad. We’ll continue this stretch of warm but mostly quiet weather (aside from a stray shower on the seabreeze) for Saturday and Sunday. Expect to start each day in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will generally run in the upper 90s — certainly still hot, but it could (and has!) been much worse.
Attention then turns to a front that will move into the area on Monday. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase throughout the day as the front sags south into the region. Temperatures will peak around 90° one more time before the front ushers in cooler air and continued unsettled weather as we get into the working portion of next week. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major concern, but we could see brief periods of heavy rain and lightning from any thunderstorm that fires. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors!
Cool high pressure will hang tough over much of the Carolinas heading into the weekend, though coastal areas could run a little warmer and more humid depending on the position of a stationary front/coastal trough nearby. The trough keeps cloud cover in the forecast for Saturday in particular, and that combined with northeasterly winds will keep temperatures down into the mid-80s in the afternoon after another mid-60s start. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday, particularly closest to the coast, with the nearby trough. A little more humidity creeps into the area for Sunday as winds just off the deck turn more onshore. It remains to be seen just how deep the moisture becomes with some fairly serious differences in model guidance showing up, but ultimately be ready for an isolated storm or two Sunday afternoon. We will see dewpoints return to the low 70s; as high temperatures head to the mid-to-upper 80s, that will yield heat indices in the low 90s. Nothing terribly heinous, though certainly not as comfortable as it has been.
While northeasterly winds continue around the high pressure wedge, the risk for coastal flooding around times of high tide has ended as the tidal departures will stay below flood stage (though they will creep into action stage from time to time). One less thing to worry about, at least. Enjoy the weekend!
High pressure will gradually give way to another cold front this weekend, bringing humidity back to the picture particularly Sunday. However, the return to mid-70s dewpoints will be brief as slightly drier air moves back in behind the front next week.
Saturday will run a little warmer than Friday did. After another cool-ish (relatively speaking) start in the low 70s, temperatures warm to the low 90s in the afternoon as dewpoints creep back up to the upper 60s. This will make it feel more like 95° or so — not a huge jump, but certainly warmer than it’s felt the past couple days. Expect rain-free conditions on Saturday with one more day of high pressure in control before it cedes ground to the approaching front on Sunday.
Sunday starts warmer — back to the mid-70s — and warms to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will yield heat indices around 100-102° at the height of the afternoon. As the seabreeze moves inland and the front draws closer, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop. Guidance doesn’t show much to write home about with the seabreeze activity — generally scattered coverage — but a round of thunderstorms ahead of the front looks like a good bet as we get into Sunday evening. Shear and instability will be favorable for a few severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts the main concerns (though some hail can’t be ruled out, either). If we get greater coverage of seabreeze storms, that could lower the severe weather risk locally, but we’ll need to see how that materializes. Keep an eye on forecast updates for Sunday evening, just in case.
The first weekend after Debby will be a sweltering hot and occasionally unsettled affair as a front stalls out to our west and the seabreeze helps to kick off afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect to start Saturday in the upper 70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Lingering tropical moisture characterized by dewpoints in the upper 70s will drive heat indices into dangerous territory well into the low 110s. We could flirt with Excessive Heat Warning criteria if it wasn’t for the expectation that showers and thunderstorms would fire on the seabreeze by midafternoon. Unfortunately, we may see yet another round of heavy downpours for places being impacted by the ongoing flooding in the wake of Debby, and so it appears the Flood Watch will continue through at least 10am Saturday. Folks around Ridgeville, Moncks Corner, and Huger will need to continue to monitor for possible Flash Flood Warnings. We should see another round of showers and storms fire on Sunday with a similar setup in place to Saturday, too. Air temperatures may be slightly lower, but heat indices will still run close to 110°, so we will continue to swelter throughout the day Sunday. A front will squeak through next week, though, and that should allow for a little bit cooler and slightly drier air (72° dewpoints vs. 78° dewpoints, so don’t get too excited) to get into the area. So, it won’t last forever. Hang in there.
So the disclaimer at the outset with this weekend’s forecast, especially for Sunday, is that a lot hinges on the eventual path, forward speed, and strength of what is, as of this writing, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. You’ll want to keep closer tabs on forecast updates than you normally might as things are a little more fluid than normal due to the uncertainty.
With that in mind, though, one thing that’s certain is that Saturday is going to be a hot and muggy day with ample storms in the afternoon. Temperatures don’t look to get below 80° across more of the metro area than we might like, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 70s will yield heat indices that peak around advisory criteria (108°) before showers and storms develop and cool things down.
Sunday will start on the mild side once again, but showers and thunderstorms should — provided the current NHC track for Four holds — become fairly widespread across the area by Sunday afternoon as the surge of tropical moisture and a little daytime heating combine for some rather heavy downpours. The upside will be that highs will be suppressed to the mid-80s, but I’d expect it to be soggy enough to where we wouldn’t get to enjoy that all that much. An inch or two of rain will be possible Sunday, especially near the coast.
After several days of periodic, road-flooding deluges, a break is in store for the weekend as a front pushes south of the area. While we could see a few lingering storms on Saturday, we should see a little more in the way of sunshine through broken cloud cover as well. After a mid-70s start, temperatures will head to about 90° in the afternoon. Heat indices will not be quite the factor that they have been thus far in July, either: it’ll feel around 95° or so. Certainly not cool by any objective measure, but it’s not 105°, either.
Drier air pushes into the area on Sunday, and despite highs in the low 90s once again, it’s just going to feel a lot better as dewpoints mix out to the mid-60s in the afternoon. (We’ve been dealing with mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints for the better part of several weeks now, so this will be nice!) The drier air will help promote generally sunny skies with little to no chance of any rain in the afternoon. It’ll be one of the better outdoors days in recent memory, and dewpoints in the mid-60s essentially remove the heat index from the equation.
Enjoy this, because as we depart July and head into August next week, we’re back into a pretty standard summertime pattern with warm temperatures, mid-70s dewpoints, and afternoon storms.
The weekend’s forecast will feature continued summer heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
We’ll start Saturday in the mid-to-upper 70s away from the coast, warming to the low to mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be on the rebound after a slightly drier Friday, but heat indices should stay below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108° for one more day. That being said, it’ll still be plenty hot: it’ll feel like 103-105° at the height of the afternoon. The seabreeze will be the focal point for scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with additional storms firing off outflow boundaries. Some of us may see a storm to cool us off, but others will not. High-resolution guidance is pointing at areas along and west of 17-A for the best chance for storms.
More widespread storms are possible Sunday ahead of another “cold” front that’ll be moving in from the north. Ahead of this front and before storms kick off, air temperatures could head into the mid-90s. This, combined with an increasingly humid airmass, could send heat indices toward the upper 100s and, after a couple days off, another Heat Advisory. Many of us should see relief, though, as showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon through the evening via the seabreeze, outflow boundaries, and the approaching front. A couple storms could be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts the main concern as well, so be aware of that possibility.
The tropical low — but not depression — that’s been driving Friday’s periods of rain will be ashore in far southern Georgia by Saturday morning. It’ll start to turn more northward throughout the day, and that’ll help instigate showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Outside of storms, expect a warm and muggy day with highs topping out around 90°.
We’ll keep the risk for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday as well, with the best chances once again in the afternoon (though a few showers or storms could be around all day). We stay muggy, with lows in the mid-70s yielding to low 90s in the afternoon that’ll feel more like the upper 90s.
Heat continues to build into Saturday before onshore flow knocks thermometers down a few clicks starting Sunday. After starting the day in the low 70s, temperatures should head to the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon especially away from the coast. A few thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland, which may offer some relief, but otherwise, be ready for a hot day that’ll feature heat indices over 100° at the height of the afternoon. Take frequent breaks in the shade and with plenty of water if you must be outside.
Winds turn more onshore Sunday, which will make it a little more humid but also “cooler” (technically, 91° is cooler than 97°), though heat indices will peak in the upper 90s so it all comes out in the wash. A few storms will be possible along and ahead of the seabreeze once again in the afternoon, but a rain-free day is quite possible for many of us. Just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case a storm threatens your location.
