Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to feature prominently in the forecast as we get into Saturday, with perhaps another round of morning storms to greet us as a mid-level trough and some embedded energy draws closer to the area. With the warm front north of us, peeks of sun should allow temperatures to continue to moderate into the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon.

By Sunday, the troublesome trough lifts out of the area and we get back into more of a traditional summertime regime. Scattered storms will continue, though they should be a little less numerous Sunday. Highs return to the 90s across the area and look to stay that way as we get into the new work week. But it’s the weekend, and there’s no reason to think about the new work week right now. 🙂

After two straight days of 70s — the earliest that’s happened in August on record — a warm front will lift across the area late tonight into Friday morning. Said warm front will scour out the cool season-esque wedge of high pressure that’s been in place for the last couple days and bring warm temperatures and humidity back to the Lowcountry. This, too, combined with good mid-level forcing from a trough approaching from the west, will keep plentiful showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Saturday.

With the wedge scoured out, we shouldn’t have quite as much overcast as we’ve seen the past few days. The change in airmass and ensuing periods of sunshine between storms will allow high temperatures to rise through the upper 80s each day through Sunday. Mix humidity in, and it’ll feel closer to the mid-90s on Friday, and will feel closer to 100° Saturday and Sunday afternoons. (At least it’s not 115° like this time last week!)

The trough that’s responsible for Friday and Saturday’s shenanigans will shift eastward as Sunday goes on, giving way to weather that’s more characteristic of early August to start the next work week. The fall preview was nice, though, and it’s a nice reminder that we’re coming through the peak of summer now, with the cool season not too terribly far off.

We woke up to some fairly rude shower activity generally along and east of 17-A this morning as the front repositioned a little further north. Lift across the boundary within an enhanced corridor of moisture is keeping us in cloud cover and showers this morning. We could see another round of showers in the next couple hours lift out of Savannah into the metro area. Guidance continues to indicate a dry slot for at least a few hours late this morning into early afternoon, but then begins to advertise scattered showers (and maybe a thunderstorm near the coast) returning to the picture later this afternoon.

We could still see some peeks of sun throughout the day, but the best chances of that are going to be further inland, generally west of 17-A to the I-95 corridor. Closer to the coast, we’ll remain within a plume of higher precipitable water values and somewhat better forcing in proximity to the front, which will certainly make it tougher to get some sunshine through. Depending on the strength and timing of the high pressure wedge lifting out, this could make for another significantly cooler-than-normal day for much of the Charleston metro area.

By tonight, rain chances will spread further inland as the front begins to lift back to the north in response to a trough, currently found over the Midwest into the southern Plains, pushing eastward. This will increase rain chances markedly for tonight into Friday.

After a record cool day — Wednesday’s high of 77° breaks the record low maximum temperature of 80° set in 1969 — we’ll warm up by a few degrees for Thursday as more sunshine mixes in. Still, though, with high pressure wedging in from the north, we’ll stay cooler than normal once again.

The high pressure wedge will retreat a bit as Thursday goes on. This will allow for the seabreeze to help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, but we will still not have a ton of moisture to work with behind the front. Rain chances will steadily increase overnight Thursday into Friday as the front moves back north of us, increasing available moisture and instability.

There’s a reason we tell y’all to stay tuned to forecast updates, and that’s because sometimes things change. In this case, it’s changing for the better thanks to a front that pushed a little further south and a trough moving a click or two more eastward.

A soggy pattern takes shape beginning Tuesday as a stalled front and an open pump of Gulf of Mexico moisture combine to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all of the time all day — will generally be on-and-off — but keep the rain gear handy regardless as when it does rain, it could rain pretty heavily. Some guidance is pointing to a particularly heavy slug of rain coming through starting tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours, which is certainly worth monitoring for the evening commute. Flooding is certainly a concern, and trends will be monitored appropriately, especially as high tide comes up at 5:06 PM.

Temperatures will be kept handily in check thanks to the rainfall. NWS has a high of 83° at best across the area. Depending on how “on” the rain ends up being, it’s conceivable we might not make it out of the 70s. Quite a contrast to last week, that’s for sure.

Stay abreast to forecast updates on Tuesday and throughout the week as we keep close watch on the potential for flooding rain.

The good news for next week is that there will be no 110°+ heat indices to speak of. The bad news is that we’ll accomplish this with periods of heavy rain helping to keep temperatures down as a front stalls out across the area. Troughing aloft will help unfettered moisture transport over the next several days, and with the boundary in place focusing development of showers and storms, we look to see quite a bit of rain especially as we get into mid-week.

Monday looks to be the driest day of the work week as showers and storms should hold off until late. (It will also be the warmest day of the week as a result, but highs should only top out around 90°.) Deeper moisture will be shunted southward for a good bit of the day, helping to limit shower and storm coverage. This will change by Monday night, though, as the moisture feed retreats northward. Once this happens, expect the boundary to begin to come alive with periods of heavy rain moving across the area. Generally speaking, this will be the basics of the forecast for the next several days. As of right now, it’s unclear how long this setup will remain in place, especially when looking toward the weekend.

It’s important to note that this doesn’t mean it’s going to rain all the time. It is difficult to predict exactly when and where the heaviest rain — and the dry slots — will set up more than a day in advance in regimes like this. The general advice is this: Prepare to have plenty of indoor plans this week, monitor forecast updates for dry periods, and stay alert for the potential for flooding, especially in advance of and around times of high tide. That, and don’t totally toss your weekend plans just yet, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in the long range.

Storms have remained mostly at bay today (aside from a few popups in the Walterboro/Summerville corridor) as we put in another hot day with highs topping out at 95° at the airport and 92° at Downtown.

We’ve seen showers and thunderstorms essentially split the area so far today; severe thunderstorms with even a few tornado-warned cells fired up in North Carolina, while a separate round of convection has been ongoing in far southern Georgia into Florida. This has kept the Charleston Metro Area fairly quiet, but I suspect that will be changing fairly soon as a frontal boundary continues its southward trajectory across the state. Radar is doing a good job at picking out an outflow boundary cutting through the Midlands right now, which has caused storms to fire in the Columbia metro area.

This outflow boundary is approaching a few smaller popup storms in Orangeburg and northern Berkeley counties. The atmosphere over Charleston continues to be fairly ripe for thunderstorm development, and short-term models continue to indicate additional shower and thunderstorm coverage developing in the I-95 corridor by 10PM. With the loss of daytime heating, instability has been waning, but there is still more than enough fuel for some loud and rainy thunderstorms in spots tonight.

The front helping to drive all this will stall out across the area tomorrow. With plenty of available moisture and instability, we’ll see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. I’ll have more details in another post later this evening.

Temperatures will once again reach the mid-90s this afternoon across the area (fun fact: yesterday was the first 95° day all year at the airport). Combined with moisture-laden air characterized by dewpoints near 80°, this will once again drive the risk for excessive heat indices upwards of 115° near the coast, where an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for today. For the inland counties, a Heat Advisory will be in effect with heat indices approaching 110°. Regardless of whether you are in the advisory or warning area today, you’ll want to take precautions against heat illness if you must be outside during the afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms look to initiate a little later in the day than we saw yesterday, with the best risk of storms coming in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Models suggest a line of thunderstorms could develop and move across the area today. Timing is always a question mark, but I would be on guard for storms starting about 3-4 PM, with the earlier timeframe the further north and west you are. Available energy will be abundant with such strong surface heating and moist dewpoints. Thus, a few storms could be on the strong to severe side with damaging wind gusts, but frequent cloud-to-surface lightning and pockets of heavy rain remain the overwhelming concern from any storms that form this afternoon.

A cold front looks to get close to the area tonight. This will help shut off the oppressive heat of the last few days, but at the cost of another few days of on and off heavy, flooding rainfall. Will have more on the upcoming week later this evening.

We will continue our string of hot days this weekend as we remain under mostly westerly flow at the surface and aloft. A cold front will be closer to the area, though, and this along with some upper-level energy will instigate a few more showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday afternoon. A few of these storms could turn severe with damaging wind gusts the primary concern; locally heavy rain and lightning will also certainly factor in. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday, though it won’t rain all day.

Heat and humidity will continue to combine for heat indices around 110° on Saturday and perhaps approaching that number again on Sunday. A heat advisory is in effect for Saturday afternoon as a result; you’ll once again want to take heat safety precautions if you must be outside.

The heat will back off Monday, but at the cost of the resurgent potential for isolated flooding rainfall as deeper moisture and upper-level features become favorable once again for very heavy rainfall.