An unusually potent storm system will affect the area on Tuesday, bringing strong, gusty non-thunderstorm winds, some tidal flooding in the morning, and a squall line in the afternoon and early evening that could bring a swath of damaging winds and maybe a few tornadoes on its leading edge.

The active weather pattern we’ve found ourselves in for the start of the year continues this week as we’ll see at least two storm systems visit the area, with quiet and generally cool weather days interspersed between them.

Monday will feature increasing clouds and a steady east to northeast breeze as high pressure wedges southward. We start the day in the mid-30s and warm to around 60° in the afternoon with clouds steadily increasing ahead of Tuesday’s storm system. Late Monday, a warm front will lift north of the area, which may bring some scattered showers along with it, but we should get much of the daylight hours, if not all of them, in rain-free.

After a rather warm Saturday — the warmest day of the young year so far with a high of 75° — temperatures return to normal on Sunday as cooler and drier air blows in behind a cold front. We start the day in the mid-40s, but the ongoing cool air advection will hold highs to around 60° in the afternoon despite partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. It’ll be another breezy day; expect winds generally 10-15 MPH out of the west with gusts approaching 25-30 MPH once again.

We’ll likely be waking up to rain Saturday morning as a storm system moves through the area. Rain could be heavy at times, with a half-inch to an inch of rain possible in many spots. It’ll be windy, too: gusts to 30-35 MPH will be possible, so batten down the hatches if you have rain-or-shine outdoor events. The bulk of the rain should exit by early afternoon, though guidance does suggest some wrap-around moisture may keep a few showers around through early evening. From there, we should dry out. Temperatures during the day will be as warm as they’ve been so far in the small sample size of 2024: expect lows in the mid-40s to yield to highs near 70° in the afternoon as warm air advects into the area.

Sunday will be a quieter weather day, with cooler and somewhat drier air working into the area in the wake of Saturday’s storm system. Expect to start the day in the mid-40s with breezy westerly winds keeping highs capped to around 60° in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds.

The recent spate of quick-hitting storms continues over the weekend. Friday will get off to a chilly start, with lows around freezing in the metro and likely lower further inland. Highs head to the mid-50s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Clouds will be increasing late as a Gulf storm system approaches the area, but we get the vast majority of Friday in rain-free.

Showers look to begin around midnight and will last through Saturday morning. Many spots should see an inch or more of rain, with a few spots pushing 1.5-2″. There will be the risk for a few rumbles of thunder, but no severe weather is expected. Rain should depart by mid-afternoon, so it’s not an all-day washout. Saturday will also be notable for how warm it will be: we start the day in the mid-40s and warm to near 70° in the afternoon as we remain in the warm sector of the storm system, about as warm as we’ve been in 2024’s short time.

The storm system’s cold front swings through late Saturday/early Sunday and yields a quiet end to the weekend. Lows in the mid-to-upper 40s will yield to highs around 60° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Quiet weather continues Monday, though a potent storm system looks to affect the area on Tuesday with strong, gusty winds, heavy rain, and maybe some severe weather — stay tuned.

A brief round of rain on Wednesday night will depart the area by daybreak Thursday, leaving behind a little bit cooler air as well as unfettered sunshine. We start the day in the upper 30s to around 40° before warming to the mid-50s in the afternoon — a few degrees below early January normals (60°). It’ll be a little breezy, with winds out of the north and northwest around 10-15 MPH, which will be a contributor to keeping high temperatures below normal despite all the sunshine.

Wednesday gets off to a freezing start across the metro area as lows dip into the low 30s away from the warmer coastline thanks to calm winds and mostly clear skies setting up for a good night of radiational cooling. The sub-freezing air doesn’t last long, though, as moisture increases ahead of a storm system that will be traversing the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday. It’ll fling some showers our direction, primarily from late afternoon Wednesday into the overnight and very early Thursday morning.

The storm system clears the area by daybreak Thursday, setting up a couple quiet days of weather. Expect highs in the mid-50s on Thursday and Friday, with an upper 30s start on Thursday before heading back to near the freezing mark on Friday morning.

The holidays are over, and we’re back at it in 2024. The good news is that mostly quiet weather, except for a wet Wednesday evening, looks to be the rule for the first work week of 2024. A cold front coming by Monday evening (which was able to squeeze out a few showers as it passed) will set us up for a chilly start to Tuesday, with lows around freezing in the metro and likely below further inland. Despite clear skies, highs will only get to the mid-50s — a few degrees below early January normals (60°).

After a freeze in the morning, we’ll get much of Wednesday in rain-free before showers arrive generally around and after sunset ahead of another storm system. The rain from this will be reasonably short-lived, though, and should depart before daybreak on Thursday. We start Thursday around 40° and warm back into the mid-50s in the afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Aside from a chillier start on Friday, in which we’ll once again flirt with freezing, expect highs to warm to the mid-50s once again under mostly sunny skies. The next storm system looks to arrive Saturday; it’ll probably be a bit more of an effective rainmaker than Wednesday evening’s storm, though it should depart by Sunday morning.

We’ll depart 2023 and enter 2024 with a minimum of meteorological fanfare as high pressure remains in control through Monday. Temperatures on Saturday will start in the mid-30s, but elevated winds will make it feel closer to the upper 20s. Highs will only top out in the low 50s as gusts reach 25-30 MPH once again during the prime heating of the day. The chill is in spite of nearly full sunshine, though much like Friday, a fair-weather cumulus field should take shape.

Clear skies and diminishing winds will improve radiational cooling conditions overnight Saturday into Sunday, and so we should start the day around the freezing mark away from the coast. Another mostly sunny day lies ahead, and a warming trend will start to kick in as the core of the cold air moves out. Expect temperatures to head close to 59-60° in the afternoon, right in striking distance of December 31 norms. There are no weather concerns for New Year’s festivities on Sunday night except for the need for a jacket — it’ll be getting into the low 40s in many spots as we ring in 2024.

New Year’s Day will start a little warmer, with lows in the upper 30s to around 40° warming to the low 60s in the afternoon. There will be a little more cloud cover ahead of a cold front that’ll swing through overnight Monday into Tuesday with a slight chance of a few showers. The next substantial rain chance appears to be next Thursday with a stronger front moving by, followed by high pressure leading into the first weekend of 2024.

A cold front coming through overnight will send temperatures even cooler for Friday. We start the day in the low 40s, but cold air will be blowing in throughout the day. This will keep temperatures suppressed to about the mid-50s in the afternoon despite mostly sunny skies. It’ll be a breezy day, too; winds will generally run 10-15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH as daytime heating helps push mixing heights to about 5,000 feet. Cloud cover will generally be sparse with a fairly dry atmosphere in place, with maybe a few fair weather cumulus showing up from time to time.