High pressure will ridge into the area for much of the new week ahead, sending air temperatures up and thunderstorm chances down before weakening into the weekend, bringing back a better chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

A fairly standard mid-July weekend lies ahead across the metro area. Highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s each day after starting out in the mid-to-upper 70s. The seabreeze will be the main instigator for afternoon and evening thunderstorms; as is customary for this point in the year, heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main threats, with gusty winds possible within the strongest storms. Severe or not, all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors.

Friday and the weekend will feature another round of warm temperatures, with heat indices running 105-110° by the weekend, and a solid chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. We’ll start each day in the upper 70s — perhaps not getting below 80° downtown and at the beaches — before warming to the mid-90s each afternoon. Surface dewpoints running solidly in the mid-70s will yield heat indices approaching 105° on Friday. The weekend should peak even hotter, with heat indices approaching 105-110° each afternoon. Stay tuned for the potential for Heat Advisories from the National Weather Service.

From there, showers and thunderstorms will fire each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will be the main concerns, though the stronger updrafts found where outflow boundaries collide could be capable of producing a marginally severe storm or two with damaging wind gusts the main concern. As is often the case in July, it will not rain all day, and some of you may not see rain every day. Just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms approach. Severe or not, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

Expect one more generally quiet weather day on Thursday (though a shower or storm can’t be ruled out in the afternoon, especially further inland) before things turn more unsettled as a trough digs in for Friday and the weekend.

Another day or two of quiet weather is expected as deep-layer dry air remains in place over our part of the world, suppressing thunderstorm development and keeping temperatures a little more in check. Wednesday looks pretty good by July standards, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s expected. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s should yield a peak heat index around 99°, generally after the seabreeze moves by. Thursday will run a degree or two warmer with a little bit more in the way of cloud cover as moisture starts to tick up somewhat. Peak heat indices should run around 100° during the mid-afternoon hours.

We get back to a more traditional July pattern of afternoon thunderstorms on Friday as more humid air begins to work back into the area. We start the day in the upper 70s and top out in the mid-90s before scattered thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and evening hours along the seabreeze. Heat indices could top out above 105°. We’ll keep this going into the weekend, too, with the potential for advisory-level warmth (heat index 110°+ for two hours) and scattered thunderstorms as the main weather concerns for outdoor activities.

Somewhat drier air (aloft, anyway) moving into the area Tuesday will put an end to the soggy weather for a few days, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm does remain possible. We start the day in the low 70s — the coolest start to a day since June 28 — before warming into the low 90s in the afternoon. While the drier air will provide for generally partly cloudy skies amidst a somewhat brilliant blue sky, it’ll still be fairly humid at the surface; expect heat indices to peak around 100° in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves by. All in all, though, we should have plenty of sun to help sop up this latest round of heavy rain.

The week ahead will feature what passes for a “cooldown” in mid-July followed by a return to temperatures running a few degrees above normal for this point in the year. But first, a soggy Monday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front take center stage. Some very heavy rain is possible, with another 1-2″ of rain possible across the area with locally higher amounts. We’ll have to watch for the potential for flooding as storms could train across some of the same spots repeatedly; there is also the matter of the 3:07 PM high tide to be concerned about, too, for downtown Charleston. The clouds and rain will keep highs in the mid-80s for the first time since June 23rd, so at least there’s a brief break from the heat. (Silver linings, etc.)

We have another hot day ahead on Sunday before showers and thunderstorms erupt once more generally in the mid-to-late afternoon and evening hours. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s will warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Ever-so-slightly drier air should keep heat indices below 105° and delay the onset of thunderstorms later than they started on Saturday. Storm coverage also should be a little thinner than Saturday as well. Still, a strong to severe storm can’t be totally ruled out, so stay alert for possible warnings, and just be ready to change outdoor plans to indoor ones if a thunderstorm approaches your area.

“Speak Now” (Taylor’s Version) is not the only thing that’s going to get replayed over and over this weekend — so it shall be with the forecast as well. Expect muggy starts in the mid-70s each morning (with temperatures struggling to get below 80° downtown) followed by high temperatures in the mid-90s each afternoon. Heat indices will peak around 105° each day. While that would be a Heat Advisory in June, it happens so frequently in July and August that the criteria is moved to 110° on July 1. So, even though there’s no advisory, the risk for heat stroke is elevated in the afternoons.

From there, scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the seabreeze as convective temperatures are reached, eliminating the cap that we’ll start the day with. Heavy rain and frequent lightning from slow-moving storms are the main concerns, and these will once again be mostly pulse-type storms (essentially pop up and fizzle out, much like Friday’s storms) with very weak wind shear in place. However, a damaging wind gust or two can never be totally ruled out where outflow boundaries get together and help improve lift, leading to stronger storms.

All in all, don’t expect a washout, but just be ready to move outdoor activities indoors at a moment’s notice. And stay hydrated!

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday and the weekend with an active seabreeze and plenty of heat and humidity. Highs each day will top out in the low to mid-90s, with heat indices over 105° expected. Sunday’s heat index could approach 110°, in fact. Airmass showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the early afternoon, with more activity kicking up along the inland-moving seabreeze as we head into the evenings. As always, keep up to date with forecast changes as small tweaks — such as the pocket of drier air aloft that enveloped the area Thursday, which kept thunderstorms to a dull roar — could mean a better (and vice versa) day of weather.