A stalling cold front and a cutoff low aloft will combine to bring shower and storm chances back to the area starting Friday afternoon, peaking on Saturday, and then gradually tapering on Sunday. Highs on Friday top out in the low 90s, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms generally being found along and ahead of the seabreeze. With the upper low drifting across the area Saturday, showers and thunderstorms could fire at any point, with some guidance hinting at Saturday getting off to a bit of a soggy start as showers and thunderstorms drift inland. Highs on Saturday top out in the mid-to-upper 80s given the rain and cloud cover. We’ll see the upper low lift out of the area on Sunday, decreasing the risk of showers and storms somewhat, but coverage should still be decent given the nearby front.
We have one more rain-free and rather warm day coming up on Thursday. Expect highs to once again top out in the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies, with some humidity mixing in to drive heat indices to the upper 90s to around 100°. It’s worth noting that the NWS forecast high of 95°, if it did indeed come to pass, would tie the daily high temperature record set in 1941 and then tied in 1947 and 2019. (For reference, last year’s high on September 7 topped out a degree shy of the record.) Ridging will weaken throughout the day, but much of us should expect to get the day in rain-free. I don’t know that I’d totally rule out a shower or storm closer to I-95, though.
The forecast for the rest of the work week is generally on track: Temperatures in the mid-90s will continue through Thursday with peak heat indices around 100° thanks to some, but not too much, humidity. Skies will generally run partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Storm chances don’t return to the picture until Friday, and even then, it looks like coverage will be more on the isolated side. The weaker ridge will keep temperatures running a little lower (low 90s) on Friday, but above-normal temperatures look to continue heading into the weekend despite steadily increasing storm chances as a front arrives and stalls out nearby. (Remember, normal is looking a little lower these days: normal highs for this week generally run around 87°.)
Plenty of sunshine is in the offing for the rest of the work week as high pressure remains the primary driving force for our weather. Temperatures climbed back into the low 90s on Labor Day, and this will continue as we head into the rest of the week, with mid-90s expected by mid-week. Dewpoints in the mid-60s will keep heat indices in the mid-90s on Tuesday, but as dewpoints creep up throughout the week, so it shall be with the heat index as well. Feels-like temperatures will be flirting with 100° again starting Wednesday through the rest of the week.
There’s not much in the way of rainfall to report on for much of the week with high pressure in control, but we start to see some cracks in the armor on Friday as a few storms should pop on the seabreeze, with slightly better coverage of showers and storms each afternoon this weekend.
Not sure if there are enough superlatives for how this Labor Day Weekend looks, weather-wise. Temperatures will be comfortably warm with reasonable humidity all weekend. Expect mid-80s Saturday and Sunday before we turn back toward 90° on Monday, though dewpoints in the mid-60s should negate any heat index impacts. Clouds will be few and far between, with predominantly sunny skies dominating. It’ll be a truly fantastic long weekend of weather, and I hope you can take advantage.
The only issue we’ll run into is some tidal flooding with each high tide cycle through Sunday morning. After Friday evening’s expected moderate flood, we’ll only see minor coastal flooding thereafter. You’ll simply want to keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service so you know when the risk for a few closed roads will be highest.
A nice round of decent and less-humid post-Idalia weather continues for Friday into the weekend. Expect highs in the mid-80s each day as high pressure wedges south into the area, with a string of lows in the mid-60s for the first time since early June expected. It will be comfortable outside — not too humid, not so dry that you need to constantly apply lip balm, either. Expect dewpoints to run in the low 60s for the next few days, yielding relative humidity values around 45-50% at peak heating. Not too shabby at all. The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for coastal flooding with each high tide cycle as winds go to the northeast and remnant water loading from Idalia. We should see minor flooding with the 9:16 PM high tide this evening along with the 9:37 AM high tide on Friday, with moderate flooding expected with Friday evening’s high tide peaking just after 10PM. This will cause some road closures in downtown Charleston, so be ready if you have plans downtown on Friday night. We’ll continue to see at least minor flooding with each high tide cycle this weekend, too, as the northeasterly winds — which are giving us this rather nice start to September — persist. It’s a small price to pay for what will be some of the best air we’ve felt in a while.
As we head into Sunday and Labor Day, Summer will get a proper sendoff with highs topping out closer to the upper 80s but with little appreciable change in dewpoints. Lingering high tides may keep the rip current risk elevated at the beaches, but otherwise, things look good. We stay rain-free, in fact, through Thursday as temperatures head back into the 90s next week. Enjoy!
