We’ve got one more really nice day on Tuesday before temperatures begin to fall back off into sweater weather territory. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.) Expect highs to top out in the mid-70s after starting around 50° in the morning with mostly sunny skies throughout. We’ll begin to cool off after Tuesday as high pressure wedges southward into the area; highs don’t get out of the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, and might not even crack 60° on Friday.
If the random few shots of cool weather in the past few weeks haven’t gotten you to extract your fall attire just yet, you’re going to want to get on that by the end of this week as prolonged below-normal temperatures are in the cards. Indeed, the air is going to take on quite a November feel (though one more characteristic of late November than the beginning) by the weekend. While you’re grabbing the sweaters, though, you might want to reach for the waders, as well, with moderate to major salt water flooding possible around times of high tide by the end of the week.
The potent upper low which helped drive through a front with heavy rain and gusty winds yesterday remains over the Southeast through this weekend, keeping temperatures on the cool side and cloud cover a little elevated, particularly on Saturday. We’re very likely not to get out of the upper 60s on Saturday given the mix of clouds and sun that’s expected. (You might want a sweater, at least for a bit!)
Sunday will run a touch warmer and a little sunnier, too, making for a rather pleasant Halloween free of weather-related frights. Nice weather on a warming trend looks to continue for the first few days of November, too. Enjoy your weekend!
After some lingering showers clear the area Friday morning, we will head into the weekend with quite seasonable weather to close out October. Friday looks to be another breezy day across the area as low pressure in the Tennessee Valley lumbers northeastward. A shower or two can’t be totally ruled out in spots on Friday afternoon, but the chances are relatively small. Same for Saturday, as a mix of sun and clouds keeps highs in the mid-to-upper 60s across the area with a stray shower or two possible (but unlikely). Expect more sun for Halloween as high pressure begins to reassert itself a little bit and drier air takes hold over the area. Trick-or-treating will be in fine shape (weather-wise, at least). Be safe and enjoy!
We’ll start Thursday much as we started today — a mix of sun and cloud cover with a bit of a chill in the air as lows bottom out in the low 50s. We look to end it with widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe, as a potent upper low and associated cold front approach the Lowcountry.
The severe weather threat on Thursday is certainly not a slam-dunk, but there are some concerning signals. First, there’s going to be plenty of wind energy available. A low-level jet of 55-65 MPH winds around 3,500 up looks to traverse the area in the afternoon and evening hours. This will help promote gusty winds throughout the day, even ahead of thunderstorms. Second, winds are veering with height, with southeasterly surface winds turning southerly and then southwesterly as you go up. This wind shear helps sustain thunderstorm updrafts and also can induce spin within stronger storms. Third, there is the potential for instability to spread into the area as a warm front passes by in the evening. However, instability is the biggest question mark given cloud cover and rain ahead of the storms, which often helps to tamp down on this “storm fuel” and, as a result, decreases the severe weather risk.
Ultimately, we will need to keep an eye on how things evolve tomorrow. If that instability does materialize as some of the guidance suggests it will, a few thunderstorms will be able to pull down some strong, potentially damaging winds. Given the spin in the atmosphere, a tornado or two is not out of the cards, either. Our best risk for severe weather appears timed between 4 and 10 PM, according to NWS, with the latter end of the timeline looking the most likely for SC. Stay weather-aware tomorrow and make sure you have multiple, redundant weather warning sources.
Wednesday will be another pleasant weather day. We’re going to get off to a chilly start with lows in the 40s across the area away from the locally warmer coastline. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s, and it’ll feel good in the sun.
As we head into Thursday afternoon and evening, we will want to watch the risk for heavy rain with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but the forecast wind profiles are such that a tornado cannot be totally ruled out. We’ll need to see how much instability can develop — the less instability, the better. Stay tuned to forecast updates.
The upper-level low that will help to drive Thursday’s severe threat will linger into Friday, keeping clouds and perhaps a few showers in the forecast. Temperatures won’t top out much higher than 70° on Friday afternoon.
Good news, though: The weekend looks good with sweater weather on Saturday, and Halloween is very much game on with picture-perfect weather to close out October.
A cold front will come through early Tuesday, and with it will be a shot of cooler and drier air that will make for a pleasant day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the low 60s with highs rising to the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. Overall, a really good day to get lunch outside if you can.
We’ll see a similar weather day on Wednesday with a cooler start (40s look possible in many spots). Thursday continues to look unsettled as a potent storm system approaches the area. Rain, heavy at times, will be the main concern, though a couple stronger storms are possible as well. We keep showers around on Friday as a lumbering upper low swings through the area before gradual clearing into the weekend.
We’ll see a little more of an unsettled pattern going into this week with plenty of temperature peaks and valleys to close October. Monday looks to begin with rain overspreading the area in response to an area of low pressure developing offshore, making for a wet morning commute with some rumbles of thunder possible especially near the coast. Overall rain amounts shouldn’t be terribly heavy, but watch for some slick roads nonetheless as much of the area hasn’t received rain for the better part of two weeks.
A cold front swings through late Monday, bringing with it a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Thereafter, we will see a nice little cooldown for Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather expected. Lows Wednesday morning look to dip into the lower 50s.
We’ll be dealing with a pretty potent storm system heading into Thursday and Friday as a strong upper low digs southward toward the Gulf Coast and brings a cold front with it. Showers and thunderstorms — with a couple stronger storms not out of the question — look to come into the area primarily Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Temperatures on Thursday peak in the mid-70s and the low 70s on Friday as clouds and maybe a shower or two persist through the rest of the day.
After the front passes through, we’ll get another shot of autumn-appropriate air for the weekend. Lows will flirt with 50° and lower with highs not even reaching 70° on Saturday under partly cloudy skies. Seasonable weather continues for Sunday — solid weather for costumed candy acquisition activities.
