Hurricane Idalia, which as of this writing was a strong Category 2 hurricane with 100 MPH maximum winds, will make landfall as a major hurricane in Florida later Tuesday or early Wednesday. From there, Idalia will turn more northeast, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal and freshwater flooding, and the risk for a tornado or two within rain bands to the area later Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Trends have been for the storm to track a little more inland of the coast than we’ve seen forecasted in the past day or so, and there is pretty good agreement that this will be the case, expanding the heavy rain threat further inland along with the tornado threat in the evening. Here’s a full rundown of what to expect.

Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day as we prepare for Idalia’s arrival in the Lowcountry. We start the day in the mid-70s and warm to around 90° with heat indices approaching 100° within the increasingly tropical airmass. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to fire along the seabreeze in the afternoon and become somewhat numerous at times. Heavy rain capable of minor flooding will be possible. We’ll also need to watch the risk for coastal flooding in the evening, with minor to moderate flooding possible as water levels approaching 7.5′ with the 7:31 PM high tide. Due to the Storm Surge Watch in effect, there will be no Coastal Flood Advisory, so keep that in mind.

Much of the weather scuttlebutt this week will be about Tropical Storm Idalia, which increasingly looks like it’s going to have impacts on the area Wednesday into Thursday. We have a couple reasonably quiet days ahead before the weather begins to head downhill later Tuesday night. Expect highs on Monday to top out in the low 90s with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze; it’ll be a similar story for a good bit of Tuesday before moisture from Idalia potentially triggers a predecessor rain event along and ahead of a stalled front, which could bring very heavy rain to some spots and maybe even some flooding ahead of the storm’s arrival.

Sunday will be yet another warm and muggy late-August day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s before highs head to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should peak in the low 100s. From there, we should see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze. We may also see some activity from the north near a stalling cold front trying to infiltrate the area as well. The strongest storms will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds, though widespread severe weather is far from in the cards. Overall, no washout of a day, just be ready to move outdoor activities inside if storms approach.