Folks, we’ve been handed a gift: A very not-humid, spring-ish mid-June day for Father’s Day. We start the day with lows in the mid-60s away from the coastline under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will warm into the mid-80s in the afternoon while dewpoints mix out into the 50s — very rare air for this point in the year around here. This will yield relative humidity values below 40%, and as such, a wonderful Father’s Day gift from Mother Nature. We’ll have a few clouds from time to time, so make sure you’re using sunscreen, but other than that, there are no weather concerns. Enjoy!

Another hot day lies ahead as air temperatures head back up to the mid-90s thanks to downslope flow from the Appalachians. Said downsloping, though, will help keep dewpoints — and the heat index — from getting too far out of bounds. Heat indices will “only” peak around 100° this afternoon. While still quite hot, we aren’t headed into that more dangerous temperature territory today as a result of the drier air. This will also essentially suppress thunderstorm development; in fact, today marks the beginning of what looks to be a rain-free few days across the area. With just a few clouds expected, definitely deploy the sunscreen as the UV index approaches 11 during the peak of the day.

Thursday will run a little cooler — 91° with a heat index of 94° certainly qualifies — as onshore flow behind a backdoor cold front gives us a little break before the heat picks back up on Friday. With the slightly cooler weather comes a somewhat more stable atmosphere, which will keep the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to a bare minimum. All in all, should be a fairly decent day for an outdoor dinner. (Might still be a bit much for eating lunch outside, though.)

Another dangerously hot day for the Lowcountry is on tap for Tuesday, as temperatures soar into the upper 90s — and perhaps over 100° well inland — in the afternoon courtesy of an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft. Factor in the humidity, and it’ll feel as hot as 110°+ during the peak of the afternoon, prompting a Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm for the entire Tri-County area.

We haven’t seen heat like this in a long while. The last time air temperatures reached Tuesday’s forecast high of 98°, COVID wasn’t even in our vocabulary: it was August 10, 2019.

Looking for thunderstorms to help temper the heat? Don’t count on them, as coverage should be isolated at best. If storms do get going, they’ll be able to take off and become severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail. We’ll also be watching areas to our north with close interest tonight into tomorrow, as a potential mesoscale convective system could move into and through the Mid-Atlantic states during the day. This could help drive a cold front southward, bringing with it perhaps a better shot at some showers and storms later in the evening. These, too, could be on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center outlines the area in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms Tuesday.

Oppressive heat looks to continue for much of the rest of the week, with a slight downshift in intensity Thursday and Friday (but not enough to elude more Heat Advisories). Mercifully, this heat wave should break on Sunday after another front pushes through the area and actually cools things off somewhat. But for now, make sure you’re getting plenty of shade and water if you must be outside in the afternoon.

Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue as well around the times of evening high tide. Watch for the potential for road closures each evening, and be on the lookout for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Despite the air temperature topping out around 91°, Thursday’s going to be the hottest day of the week because of quite a bit of humidity. Heat indices could approach 100° in the afternoon before scattered thunderstorms develop along the inland-moving seabreeze. A storm or two could be on the strong side where outflow boundaries intersect, but as is typical in the summertime, any severe weather will be quite localized. Heat will certainly affect everyone, though, so be sure that you’re getting plenty of water and shade if you’re outdoors in the height of the afternoon.

After what was a rather pleasant day today, summer warmth returns to the weather picture beginning Tuesday. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s in the afternoon, with heat indices running in the low 90s. An isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out, but the majority of us get the day in rain-free.

Another hot day is in store for Thursday as highs once again soar into the 90s under partly cloudy skies. Add humidity in, and heat indices could reach 96-97°. There’s a slight chance of a popup thunderstorm or two tomorrow, but the vast majority of us once again look to remain rain-free. If storms do fire, they could produce some gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning, so be ready to move indoors if you’ve got outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon.

Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)

There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.

Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.

Thursday looks to be another warm and somewhat muggy day as onshore flow keeps humidity up a notch or two. Temperatures will top out a little warmer than they did today, ending up around on the higher end of the mid-80s away from the coastline; factor in the humidity and we’ll see heat indices running in the low 90s. We look to stay rain-free, though, as drier air aloft stays in place for one more day.

We remain warm and muggy on Tuesday as we remain on the warm side of a stalled frontal boundary to our north. Storm coverage should be a little lower for the afternoon, generally driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze, but a few spots may still yet get some heavy rain and even some gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though. Highs in the afternoon top out in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.

Later in the evening, the aforementioned frontal boundary should get a bit of a move-on as low pressure heads eastward across North Carolina. Some of the convection-allowing models push the front into the area as early as 9-10 PM, accompanied by showers and maybe some thunderstorms. We’ll see how this ultimately pans out. Regardless, we should see the front — and some slightly drier air — at least temporarily poke into the area for Wednesday, stalling out over or just south of the Tri-County. Wait and see, but for now, we’ll continue to take the shots for beneficial rainfall, as long as the extra-curricular activity remains to a minimum.