Rain will increase across the area by early Sunday morning as the potent storm system we’ve been watching for the last several days makes its approach to the Charleston area. 1-2″ of rain will likely fall before it’s all said and done Sunday evening. Gusty winds will be a concern especially as the cold front moves through, potentially bringing gusts 30-40 MPH at times especially on elevated surfaces.
Temperatures will remain above freezing for the duration across the Tri-County, and no winter weather is expected. The exact temperatures are going to be somewhat difficult to pin down as it will largely depend on how far inland a warm front can get. We could easily see highs in the low 60s at the immediate coast and temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s for much of the day around the Santee Cooper lakes and the I-95 corridor. Even though we’re now at the point where the highest-resolution models are able to resolve these features, it’s going to be really, really tough to say with much confidence exactly how the temperature curve will shake out tomorrow. The warm front will bear close watching.
Flooding is becoming an increasing concern for early Sunday morning as well. Water levels in the harbor are forecast to peak around 7.2′ with the 6:47am high tide, owing to strong northeasterly winds developing within the wedge as low pressure deepens to our west. Recent guidance suggests a non-zero possibility for a few heavy showers to be in the area around this time, too, so we’ll need to watch closely in case tides and rainfall combine for road flooding in downtown Charleston.
There is a non-zero risk for a thunderstorm or two near the coast during the day Sunday. However, conditions don’t look terribly favorable for severe weather in our neck of the woods. (There is a slightly better risk of severe weather as you head into the Grand Strand and southeastern North Carolina.) Of course, we will want to keep an eye on this, but right now this thunderstorm threat looks rather minimal.
Overall, it’s a tricky forecast day across the Southeast, but at least we look to escape wintry weather for this go-around. It’ll be a good day to stay indoors, keep devices charged in case winds cause a power outage or two, and watch some football (if that’s your thing, anyway).
Keep an eye to the Carolina Weather Group throughout the day tomorrow for updates on the storm, including for Charleston from yours truly, as it impacts the Carolinas.
Thursday will run several degrees warmer than what we saw today, bringing a brief return to the 60s as winds turn a little more out of the west. A weak trough looks to stir up some cloud cover particularly later in the day. While a shower can’t totally be ruled out, it is highly unlikely that we’ll see any rain.
We continue to watch trends for a Carolina winter storm this weekend. So far, confidence continues to increase in precipitation remaining all liquid across the Charleston metro area, and that is the going NWS forecast as a result. There are still many details to be worked out over the next few days as we start to get into range of the higher-resolution mesoscale models, so stay tuned for updates as the weekend draws near.
We’ve got another chilly Tuesday in store as lows drop below freezing away from the coast tonight. Expect temperatures around 30-31° to begin the day in the Charleston metro area, with upper 20s further inland. Winds will make it feel like the mid-20s, though, so be dressed with layers accordingly.
Despite full sunshine, high temperatures will only top out around 50° in the afternoon. This runs about 10° below normal for this point in January.
Otherwise, no other major weather hazards are expected. Enjoy your Tuesday.
Tuesday’s weather, in a word: Quieter. It will also be much less windy than today was, though that’s not a hard bar to reach either. We’ll start the day around freezing in the metro area, with upper 20s further inland, while places near the coast will stay above freezing. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule, with cloud cover increasing a bit as the day goes on.
The main weather hazard for Tuesday will be the potential for moderate coastal flooding with the morning high tide. The forecast is for water levels to reach 7.8′ around 9am. This will certainly be high enough to close several roads in downtown Charleston, including the Highway 61 off-ramp from the Ashley River southbound bridge as well as parts of Lockwood Drive. Be ready to use alternate routes if downtown is in your commuting plans.
Our blowtorchy end to 2021 continues on Thursday despite increased cloud cover and even the specter of a few showers moving into the area. Highs could once again get close to the 80° mark in the afternoon. Thursday’s record high of 82° will probably stay safe, but it’ll be close.
Some showers look to move into the area in the mid-afternoon hours and persist through early evening as a front gets close to the area (but doesn’t get through). There’s a chance that we could even see some rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavy rainfall if the convection-allowing models are sniffing things out correctly. The risk for severe weather appears extremely low, but we’ll need to keep an eye on how things evolve to our northwest. All that being said, keep rain gear handy if you’ve got outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon, but forget about any winter clothing until Monday.
Atlantic high pressure will keep its hold across the area, and as a result, we’ll stay quite warm continuing into Tuesday. Cloud cover will act as a bit of a governor on just how warm we get, but we should expect another day of upper 70s across much of the area. It won’t be record heat, though: the record high for Tuesday is 82°, last set in 2015, which appears safe (unlike today’s record high of 78°, which we tied).
Cooler weather is still several days away, but it does look like we’ll begin to see things cool off as we kick off the first work week of 2022. Stay tuned…
A reinforcing cold front will drop through the area tonight, bringing us mostly clear skies overnight and another round of cool air that should help temperatures drop to near freezing in the metro area, and likely right at freezing inland. (We’ll stay a little warmer at the coast.) Make sure pets and plants are in a warm, protected place tonight.
After Thursday, temperatures will warm back into the 60s for Friday and the low 70s for Christmas. We’ll keep fair weather in the forecast through early next week with continued warmer-than-normal temperatures as we approach the end of 2021.
For as cruddy as Tuesday was, Wednesday looks significantly nicer. We’ll keep a late-December feel to the air with highs only getting to about 60° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in from the west. This will begin another rain-free stretch for our area into early next week. High pressure moves to our north and shifts winds around to the northeast for Thursday, keeping us in the 50s despite almost full sunshine. After high pressure moves offshore Friday, we’ll warm up into the 70s for a few days starting on Christmas Day. All in all, looking good for any last-minute gift acquisition.
Get ready for an unsettled and chilly Tuesday with rain and breezy northeast winds for much of the day. Rain could start as early as 1-2am, but will peak during the day with up to 1-1.5” possible in spots as low pressure moves northeastward parallel to the coast.
Chilly high pressure will remain wedged into the area through tomorrow, and the interaction between it and the low pressure system will help kick up northeasterly winds, especially at the coast. We could even see some minor salt water flooding with the 9:02am high tide as the wind could push the tidal anomaly close to 7’.
Elsewhere, this wind will make temperatures feel even cooler than they already will be, with wind chills in the 30s possible well into mid-morning. Winds notwithstanding, the forecast high of 51° may very well be optimistic especially given rain falling into the wedge, helping to reinforce the cold air dam across the area.
The good news is that our weather improves beginning Wednesday, and we’ll be on our way to a warming trend with much more sunshine heading into and beyond Christmas.
We’re turning much cooler for Tuesday as high pressure wedges into the area from the north in the wake of a cold front which will pass through overnight, perhaps bringing a few showers with it as it moves by. Southwest winds in the low levels will lift moisture over the high pressure wedge, producing ample cloud cover with occasional light showers possible throughout the day. This will act as a strong governor on temperatures, which may not break 60° in the afternoon.
We should see another round of minor coastal flooding around the 10:18 AM high tide Tuesday morning. Be ready for salt water on a few area roads, especially around Gadsden Creek (Fishburne/Hagood corridors near the Citadel and the Joe). Widespread coastal flood impacts are not expected.
