Mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures will reign once again today as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over the Gulf. Westerly winds with a touch of a downslope component will help temperatures warm some 8-10° above normal for early December. Warm weather fans, rejoice! Cool weather fans…I’m sorry.
We hit 70° at the airport today for the first time since November 21, when we topped out at 75°. We’ll head north of 70° again on Thursday after starting the day in the low 40s in the metro (upper 30s further inland). Looks like we’ll top out in the low-to-mid 70s in the afternoon, with slightly cooler air at the immediate coast keeping temperatures in the upper 60s at the beaches. All in all, a fairly stellar December day (for our warm weather fans, anyway).
The 70s could continue all the way through next Monday before another frontal passage knocks temperatures back into the low 60s on Tuesday. Overall, the Climate Prediction Center outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures over the next couple weeks after what was a rather chilly November, tying 1940 for ninth-coolest November on record at the airport climate site with an average temperature of 54.1°. (Records began at the airport climate site in March of 1937.)
A freeze is expected overnight into Tuesday morning across much of the Lowcountry away from the immediate coast and near bodies of water. Make sure sensitive plants are covered and your pets are inside and warm!
Once we clear the chilly start, it’s going to turn out to be a really nice day across the area as highs head into the low 60s under brilliant, unfettered sunshine — a rare no weather worries day! Quiet weather continues for the next several days as a warming trend commences heading into the end of the week, in which the 70s will make a return.
The cherry on top? Tomorrow’s the last day of hurricane season — something we all can celebrate.
Sweater alert for Tuesday! We’ll start the day a little breezy and much cooler as a polar airmass takes residence in our neck of the woods. Air temperatures should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s away from the locally warmer coastline, but factor in the wind and it’ll feel closer to 30-32°. We’ll see predominantly sunny conditions throughout the day with just a few passing clouds at times in the afternoon; despite this, temperatures look to go no higher than the low 50s. Make sure your pets have a warm place to be tonight.
As we get into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, winds will come down and allow radiational cooling to develop, which should be enough to get us our first freeze of the year in many spots (with widespread frost elsewhere). Lows look to bottom out from the mid-30s away from the immediate coast to possibly some upper 20s well inland. (Areas around Lake Moultrie should stay a touch warmer thanks to the influence from the warmer waters.) You’ll definitely want to make sure pets and plants have a warm place to be.
After one more frosty morning on Thanksgiving, temperatures will moderate back into the 60s in the afternoon, where we’ll stay for a couple days before a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives in time for the weekend.
We’ve got one more mild day coming up for Thursday ahead of a cold front which will chill us out quite nicely on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures look to start about 10-13° warmer Thursday morning than they did on Wednesday, bottoming out in the mid-50s. There could be some patchy fog in the morning, so be alert on the commute for visibility drops. We’ll warm to the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon despite mostly cloudy skies — thank a little compressional heating and southwesterly winds ahead of the front for that. Moisture looks scant but a shower or two can’t totally be ruled out for a few of you; the NWS forecast has 10% probability of precipitation so if there is any measurable rain, it’s likely going to be very limited in scope.
After the front gets through, we have a couple days in the low-to-mid 60s coming up for Friday and Saturday before warming back to the low 70s on Sunday. Keep sweaters on standby for the first part of the weekend!
Tuesday is looking really, really nice with high pressure firmly in control of our weather. A dry atmosphere and plenty of sinking air will keep skies clear, and the airmass will modify just a touch to yield highs in the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon.
We may deal with some frost formation in the morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties. Cover up or bring in sensitive plants tonight into Tuesday morning. Other than that, though, no major weather concerns at all.
Enjoy a nice Tuesday!
We’ll have our warmest and most humid day for another week or so on Thursday ahead of a cold front and sharp upper trough which should bring some showers into the area starting as early as the late afternoon through Friday morning. Temperatures for this Veterans Day will run a few degrees above normal thanks to southerly flow ahead of the front — expect mid-70s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s will certainly feel a little more humid than we’ve felt the past few days, too. Expect rainfall amounts to run generally on the light side, with a few spots possibly recording around a quarter-inch of rain on the high end.
One other good thing about the southerly to southwesterly flow that’s developing is that it should help put an end to this week of coastal flooding. The tide in the harbor reached 7.17′ this morning, allowing for some shallow salt water flooding to occur. It’s expected that tomorrow’s tides will stay below the 7′ threshold for the first time since this stretch of coastal flooding began November 3rd. (And good riddance, too.)
Tuesday is going to be an excellent weather day across the Lowcountry with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming nicely into the mid-70s in the afternoon as high pressure remains in firm control at the surface. We won’t start quite as chilly as we did this morning — the low of 37° today was the coldest since April 4, when it was also 37° — but it’ll still feel crisp with low 40s away from the warmer coastline.
We still cannot shake the risk for coastal flooding on Tuesday. Moderate coastal flooding is once again forecast around the 11:33am high tide, which should close some roads in downtown Charleston near the lunch hour. While a fifth consecutive day of major flooding is not expected, it is still well within the possibility that salt water could impinge upon major roads downtown, including the 17-to-61 off-ramp, Lockwood Blvd., and the areas around the City Market among other places. Be ready once again to use alternate routes. Fingers crossed that this is it!
Our weather takes a positive turn Sunday as the coastal storm moves northeast and away from the area. We will see some showers hanging around in the morning, but these will depart as the morning goes on. Expect the sun to begin peeking through by afternoon before sunset at 5:24 PM. (Don’t forget to set your clocks back an hour tonight!)
Temperatures will thankfully respond to the sunshine as well, with highs around 60° in the afternoon. (The normal high for November 7, though, is 72°.)
Winds will remain breezy, with gusts to 30 MPH still a possibility as we remain within a very tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east. Use extra caution on bridges and overpasses once again tomorrow.
There will be a risk for minor to moderate for tidal flooding Sunday morning. Water levels could approach about 7.5′ with the 9:34 AM high tide. Be ready for a few road closures, though certainly nothing to the extent that was seen this morning when the water level peaked at 8.44′, good for 11th highest on record at Charleston Harbor.
Saturday’s gonna be a meteorological mess, it appears. A coastal storm, which has been trending more westward in modeling, is expected to develop tonight and move parallel to the coast during the day Saturday. This is going to bring the potential for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds (with gusts 30-40 mph possible particularly near the coast), and a forecasted top-10 tide in Charleston Harbor during the morning hours.
High tide on Saturday morning is currently forecast to peak between 8.5-8.7′ in Charleston Harbor. This would be good enough for at least tenth on record at the harbor, and would be the highest tide since the water level reached 8.76′ on November 24, 2018. This will introduce significant salt water flooding across downtown Charleston, resulting in numerous road closures. It’s also possible that we will see road closures along Long Point Rd. in Mt. Pleasant and Harborview Rd. on James Island. The tide is forecast to peak at 9:40am, but with these events, there’s often a little lag, so it may peak later. Expect floodwater 2-3 hours either side of high tide.
Guidance continues to hit on the potential for rain to be in the area around this time of high tide, which could make the situation even more dicey. One other thing to keep in mind is that there will be a round of minor tidal flooding on Saturday evening, as well. Some simulated radar products bring some of the heaviest rain into the area Saturday afternoon, ahead of high tide. If it’s enough rain, we could be in for a long-duration flooding event. This will bear close watch throughout the day. The NWS forecast is generally for 2-3″ of rain across Charleston County, with somewhat lower amounts inland.
Finally, with the strong pressure gradient between developing low pressure to our east and high pressure to our northwest, winds will turn quite gusty at times. Gusts to 40 MPH appear possible on bridges and overpasses as well as the beaches. (It’s this strong northeast wind which will help drive water levels higher.)
Combine all this with highs in the low 50s, and well…you’ve got a perfect excuse to stay in on Saturday.