We’ve got a much nicer-looking weekend ahead than we had last weekend as a few more days of comfortable temperatures and generally quiet weather continue across the area. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will generally be the rule each day. We start Friday back in the mid-60s for one more day before dewpoints begin to creep up heading into the weekend, nudging lows up to the upper 60s for Saturday and Sunday. Highs, though, will remain in the mid-80s — right at normal for this point in the year.
Sunday’s looking like the only day that could see a little shower and storm activity. A wave of low pressure is expected to form along a stationary front well to our south, with a coastal trough developing on its northern flank. This may be enough to push a few showers and storms inland from the Atlantic, but rain chances are slight at best; many of us should stay rain-free. Otherwise, though, quiet weather looks to persist well into next week as ridging develops aloft. Temperatures will warm a bit more under this ridge, and it’ll feel a touch more humid with dewpoints climbing to around 70° beginning Saturday night and Sunday, but rain chances remain next-to-nothing heading into next week. (We’ll take all the drying out we can get.)
Well, today was supposed to feature a lull in the shower and storm action, with more isolated coverage…and then it rained for five hours, flooding downtown Charleston again while 3-5″ of rain dumped on Johns Island and West Ashley. This was due to the combination of a stalled front and outflow from a thunderstorm cluster that developed to our northwest. Add in a little upper-level energy and you have a very, very soggy Thursday afternoon. Thankfully, the bulk of today’s rain is over and we should largely dry out overnight (though with fog a distinct possibility).
As we head into Friday, scattered storms remain in the forecast as the ever-present front remains close by. The impact on our weather will largely be driven by how far south it slips tonight into tomorrow. Right now, the expectation is that the greatest concentration of storms will be to our south and west, but I do anticipate that we’ll see a few more downpours tomorrow across the metro area, perhaps again having impacts on the evening commute.
Shower and storm coverage is expected to tick up a little bit more Saturday as onshore flow becomes a little more convergent at the surface. That’ll be the day with the greatest potential for persistent rainfall (at least as currently forecast). There is a little model disagreement with where the surface front will be, though, and so that’ll drive a little uncertainty. Heading into Sunday and Labor Day, rain chances continue to persist, with scattered coverage expected as a coastal trough develops and hangs around. This doesn’t look to be a full-day washout for Labor Day, but be ready to move outdoor activities inside.
With the persistent risk of scattered storms and the ensuing cloud cover, highs should stay in the mid-80s each day after starting in the lower 70s. This is around, if not a touch below, early September normals.
The pattern looks to stay generally unsettled heading into the last weekend of August, though some subtle changes will help reduce coverage at least a little on Saturday and Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms remain likely particularly Friday afternoon and evening as a front remains stalled just offshore and energy aloft pivots into the area. We continue the risk for heavy rain with precipitable water values well in excess of 2″ expected to persist — plenty of moisture for deep convection to wring out. Watch for ponding of water on roads or even isolated bouts of flooding.
Slightly drier air will then poke in from the north on Saturday into Sunday. This should have the effect of scattering out shower coverage a little bit more, particularly on Saturday. However, the area won’t totally get off scot-free when it comes to rain this weekend, so be sure your outdoor plans have an indoor backup just in case.
Temperatures will remain a few clicks below normal for late August as cloud cover and rainfall stick around. Generally, we should expect lows in the low 70s each morning (running a little warmer near the coast thanks to warm sea-surface temperatures) followed by highs in the mid-80s in the afternoons.
Unsettled weather will continue this weekend as the lingering front remains a thorn in our side. Friday morning could be a particularly tricky commute as there’s the potential for some heavy rain to be moving through the area around that time. Fortunately, the commute will coincide with low tide, but whenever we’re talking heavy rain we’ll want to keep an eye on the vulnerable areas, such as downtown Charleston, Summerville, and West Ashley near Church Creek (to name a few). Showers and thunderstorms will lift north of the area with the front as the day goes on, but more storms should fire in the afternoon as the seabreeze gets going. Temperatures will generally run in the mid-80s.
With the front having lifted north, warmer weather returns to the area for the weekend. Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90° on Saturday with scattered thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the seabreeze, possibly starting as early as the late morning hours. On Sunday, we’ll stay unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, when storms could turn a little more numerous. Highs once again will top out in the upper 80s. Overall, not the best weekend of weather, but there will be dry times, too — rarely, if ever, do we see total washout days in the summer.
A cold front will push southward across the area on Friday, likely bringing with it showers and storms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. The convection-allowing models generally agree on some sort of linear storm organization pushing southward into the area tomorrow evening; the greater question is whether storms will fire ahead of it as well. I’d be prepared for periods of unsettled weather throughout the day, and be ready for another commute impacted by showers and thunderstorms. A severe storm or two can’t be totally ruled out, but the main concern will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Cloud cover and rain showers should help keep highs suppressed to the mid-and-upper 80s.
The front will move south of the area and stall out on Saturday, switching winds around to the northeast and beginning to usher in some cooler and drier air the likes of which we haven’t seen since late June. Dewpoints will fall into the mid-60s and cloud cover will scour out somewhat. However, there’s still a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a wave of low pressure develops along the front. If that wave develops nearby (as tonight’s NAM 3km suggests), it could spread some moisture ashore. That aside, Saturday should actually feel really terrific, especially further inland. Same for Sunday, where partly cloudy skies and mid-60s dewpoints will persist, making for another comfortably warm day across the Lowcountry.
Onshore winds and the recent full moon at perigee could contribute to water levels approaching minor flood stage with the Saturday evening high tide. So far, I’m not expecting any major tidal flooding issues, but it always bears watching with northeasterly wind directions near a full moon.
Atlantic high pressure keeps us appropriately warm and muggy by early August standards for tomorrow into the weekend. Onshore flow will help air temperatures run in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, while humidity will make it feel closer to the upper 90s and low 100s.
The aforementioned onshore flow keeps a chance of showers in the forecast Friday morning closer to the coast. Rain chances will migrate inland with time, with a few thunderstorms possible as the seabreeze pushes inland across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Saturday’s setup looks similar, too, though the NAM nest is a little less excited about morning showers. Sunday could be a little more active as what looks like a weak TUTT (tropical upper-tropospheric trough) whirls into the area from the east, helping to enhance shower and storm coverage across the area. Overall, the risk for severe weather remains low, but as always, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. When thunder roars, go indoors!
We’ll stay hot heading into the last few days of July as ridging continues to feature prominently in the weather pattern. Temperatures will run in the low to mid-90s each day, with heat indices between 105-108° a distinct possibility during the height of each afternoon. Lows, meanwhile, will struggle below 80° away from the coast, with temperatures not getting below 80° at the beaches for the foreseeable future. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible each afternoon — it’s hard to avoid this time of year, but the risk for additional rain remains quite low overall. Where storms develop, pockets of locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible, but as mentioned, they’ll be quite sparse — a relatively quiet end to what’s been a rather unsettled month.
Another hot day is in store Thursday. After starting in the upper 70s away from the coast and Downtown (lower 80s there, gross), temperatures will warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Mix in humidity and that’ll yield heat indices around 106°, plenty warm enough for heat exhaustion concerns during the peak of the afternoon. Much like today, expect rain-free conditions to persist as high pressure and the surface and aloft keep thunderstorm development at bay. Indeed, the only relief may be a cumulus cloud or two blocking out a bit of sun for a time.
More steamy and occasionally stormy weather is in store for the weekend as a cold front moves close by and stalls out. It won’t be a total rainout, but backup plans for weekend activities are not a bad idea.
Friday should start out rain-free in the metro area, but it’ll still be quite warm as we start In the mid-to-upper 70s, warmer toward the coast. Temperatures should rise to around 90° by early afternoon before thunderstorms develop. Humidity will make it feel closer to 103°. Once again, there’s a risk for very heavy rain with these storms, and given the soaking we’ve had recently, flooding is once again a concern.
And so it will go heading into the weekend, as well, with the stalled front acting as a focal point for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop around the area. Temperatures will, before thunderstorms mess things up, top out around 90° each day, with heat indices reaching into the 100s. Heavy rain and flooding remain a threat; a wet microburst with damaging wind gusts can’t be ruled out in the strongest storms, either.
There is change coming, though. We’ll see high pressure begin to reassert itself both at the surface and aloft. This will help to suppress the more widespread thunderstorm activity we’ve seen for the balance of this month as we head into next week, though it won’t eliminate it completely as an isolated shower or storm will be possible along and ahead of the seabreeze. Temperatures, though, will continue to generally run in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices continuing to run in the low 100s. And so, summer rolls on. (At least the tropics remain quiet!)
