It’s going to be a pretty amazing weekend of weather, folks. Temperatures will return to the 80s as ridging continues to build aloft, and clouds will be at a minimum as high pressure rebuilds at the surface. The only weather concern I’d have is sunburn! Use sunscreen if you’re out and about, especially if you’re putting in a couple days at High Water Festival this weekend. Enjoy the excellent stretch of spring weather! We’ll stay dry through at least Monday before our next rain chances enter the picture later Tuesday.

After another cool day by mid-April standards, we return to the 70s on Thursday as surface high pressure shifts offshore and we begin to see ridging start to build in aloft. We’ll have a few more clouds than we’ve seen in previous days with a little more available moisture, but they will be benign and non-precipitating.

No complaints in this forecast: Plenty of sun will continue as temperatures embark on a warming trend as the work week progresses. Temperatures on Wednesday will start out rather chilly by April standards, dipping into the low 40s in the metro and possibly into the upper 30s further north into rural locations. Not expecting frost to become an issue, though. After a high of 68° today, highs will top out a touch warmer, likely around 70°. Skies will be mostly sunny once again, belying the cool airmass which remains in place.

A warming trend then commences on Thursday as high pressure slips a bit offshore. This will bump highs into the mid-70s, much closer to where we typically find ourselves in mid-April. There will be a few more clouds with moisture coming in off the Atlantic, but that will just make the skies a little more interesting to look at. High pressure retreats back to the west a little bit for Friday, clearing skies a bit. More notably, though, we’ll see high pressure begin to stack aloft, allowing for temperatures to warm even more noticeably into the upper 70s to around 80° for Friday.

The great weather continues into the weekend, too, with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon as high pressure remains the dominant feature at the surface and aloft. It’s great to be able to say that there are absolutely no weather concerns for High Water Fest this year! (Well, other than that you’ll definitely want sunscreen.)

A cold front will continue to press south of the area this evening, clearing things out and cooling things off to kick off a stretch of pleasant weather. We’re gonna be pretty chilly to start this stretch off, though — lows Tuesday morning will dip into the upper 40s, but more notably, highs will only top out in the mid-to-upper 60s despite clear skies.

This chill will continue into Wednesday morning, with mid-40s lows a good bet in the metro area (trending even cooler in more rural areas). The trend will be warmer from that point forward, though, and before you know it we’re back in the 80s for Friday and the weekend.

Rain-free conditions will continue throughout the rest of the week into next Monday. Peeking ahead, it may not be until Wednesday before we start to see some showers work back into the forecast. Stay tuned for that, but in the meantime, enjoy the nice stretch of weather!

The work week will certainly get off to a meteorologically inauspicious start: Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from overnight Sunday heading into Monday morning. Heavy downpours will certainly be possible, so you’ll want to make sure you’re allowing extra time to get where you’re going in the morning. (You know how it gets around here when it rains.)

The bulk of the rain heads offshore by midday, but the short-range and convection-allowing models allow the atmosphere to recover some before the cold front gets through. This is kind of tricky as a high pressure wedge will be trying to build southward at the same time, and models are notorious for under-doing this. I wouldn’t rule out an additional shower or storm forming in the afternoon hours, but that’ll be highly conditional on just how much the atmosphere recovers before the front gets offshore, which is expected generally around mid-afternoon.

From there, though, the week turns nice and tranquil. Tuesday and Wednesday will run much cooler than normal for mid-April as highs only top out around 70° each day despite full sunshine. Ridging will develop aloft thereafter, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-70s on Thursday and back into the 80s for Friday and the weekend. All the while, we look to remain rain-free given the firm control high pressure will have over our weather at the surface and aloft.

The only potential fly in the ointment will be the risk for minor coastal flooding late Monday night, when high tide around 10-11 PM looks to peak in the 7.2-7.4’ range. Thereafter, though, the effects of the new moon and perigee diminish, bringing a quick and merciful end to this round of coastal flooding.

We’re looking at another unsettled day for Easter Sunday as a cold front sinks south of the area, stalls out, and disturbances ride atop it to generate more showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening hours.

We could have some showers in the area on Easter morning, but these should be relatively tame and not drop too much in the way of rain (though a downpour can’t be ruled out particularly as we get later into the morning). It’ll start out warm and muggy, with lows only getting into the mid-60s. A front will push southward across the area during the morning, as well, marked by winds shifting to the northeast. This will limit temperatures to the mid-70s at best.

The better rain chances will arrive later in the afternoon into the evening with another disturbance swinging through. We could see some substantial rain from this round, with some spots potentially seeing up to 1-2” of rain. This rain will persist overnight and into Monday, as well.

One thing we will need to watch very closely for late Sunday: Tides. With winds turning northeasterly and the ongoing perigee, water levels could approach moderate flood stage with the 9:37 PM high tide. If heavy rain is in the area leading up to or during these high tides, we will almost certainly see some decent flooding in parts of downtown Charleston. Not a given yet, for sure, but something to watch very closely to see if things line up.

If you’re celebrating, I hope you have a happy Easter!

After a gorgeous (if not a bit windy) Friday, a warm front will lift northward across the area on Saturday, bringing warm and moist air back into the picture. This will be the fuel needed for some scattered showers and thunderstorms as a disturbance aloft ripples through the area and helps to kick off and sustain storms in conjunction with an inland-moving seabreeze. A couple storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds and hail, so keep an eye out if you have outdoor activities. A widespread severe weather event is not anticipated, though.

Temperatures on Saturday start in the upper 50s but rebound well into the low 80s after the warm front moves by.

Sunday will continue to feature scattered storm chances as upper-level energy continues to move through the area and a front stalls out nearby. We’ll run a touch cooler behind the backdoor front, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s. A continued feed of moisture will allow the stronger storms to produce a heavy rain threat, which could lead to some minor flooding in poorly-drained and low-lying areas.

Even without rain, evening high tides will get high enough to cause some minor coastal flooding through early next week. Any rain on top of that would not be great, so we’ll want to keep a close eye on things.

Expect similar conditions on Monday with improving weather starting Tuesday into much of the rest of the next work week.

A series of cold fronts will make for a bit of an unsettled forecast heading into the weekend. A washout is not anticipated, though.

Said front will come through sometime Friday morning, clearing out any shower activity from overnight. Cooler and drier air will punch into the area, setting up a rather nice day for many of us as highs peak in the mid-70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. It’ll be breezy, though, with gusty winds possibly approaching 30 MPH at times according to NWS. Keep this in mind if you decide to have lunch outside!

Unsettled weather returns Saturday as moisture return improves across the area and mid-level disturbances pass on by. These disturbances should kick off some scattered showers and some thunderstorms across the area, particularly in the afternoon. Ahead of thunderstorms, temperatures will top out in the low 80s across the area with the more warm and moist airmass returning to the area.

Sunday, another cold front will stall out across the area and another disturbance will ripple overhead. This will bring another round of scattered showers and maybe some thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures will run noticeably cooler behind the second front with highs only topping out in the mid-70s in the afternoon.

The good news in all this is that no severe weather is anticipated — getting the rain without all the other stuff is a win for our still-parched part of the world.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, packing a (thankfully weaker) line of showers and thunderstorms that will continue to lose oomph as it trudges ever eastward. We should get a majority of the day in rain-free, with only slight shower and storm chances as we get later into the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s despite the increased cloud cover. The better rain chances are pegged for later in the evening and into Friday morning, which you’ll want to keep in mind for dinner plans and beyond. Severe thunderstorms are highly unlikely in the Charleston metro area, with a low risk of severe weather around and west of I-95.

Warmer-than-normal conditions continue this week despite a weak front poking into the area on Friday. Temperatures will generally run in the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with slightly cooler and drier air on Friday behind the front.

Said front will usher in some shower and storm chances starting Thursday afternoon. The best chances of showers and storms will arrive overnight Thursday into Friday with the frontal passage. The front will stall out nearby on Friday, perhaps keeping a shower or storm chance in play across the Charleston metro during the day.

The severe weather threat looks very low and, at least as of right now, should stay generally west of I-95. Will keep an eye on it, but the ingredients look incredibly marginal. (I don’t think anyone’s complaining about this, either.) With the area remaining in drought even after last week’s rains, we’ll take what we can get — bonus points if it arrives without severe weather.

Peeking ahead toward the weekend, unsettled weather does continue to appear probable, but the models are disagreeing quite a bit on the details still. Temperatures should remain on the warm side of normal, though, through the weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more fine-tuned.