The hottest weather thus far in 2022 looks to arrive on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s and warm well into the mid-90s in the afternoon. The record high of 96°, set in 1996, will be challenged under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Heat indices could run close to 100° in the afternoon, so be sure to hydrate and take breaks accordingly.

As a series of mid-level disturbances ripple through the area, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms to fire off and move through in the late afternoon and evening hours. IF storms can fire — and this is a big IF — they could be on the strong to severe side. The thermodynamics certainly look good for storms to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, but it remains to be seen if they can get going thanks to a strong cap on the atmosphere. Gonna be a game of wait, see, and watch the satellite and radar in the meantime.

No mincing words: Here comes the heat. Mostly sunny skies combined with high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring us a period of hot weather to close out the work week.

Wednesday will be the last day of the warm-but-not-horribly-humid weather. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the warmer coastline on our way to flirt with 90° once again in the afternoon. The saving grace will be dewpoints in the mid-50s at peak heating, which will help keep heat indices well in check.

Southerly winds, though, will begin to send warm and humid air into the area. Thursday should feature the hottest temperatures thus far this season, with highs in the mid-90s expected away from the coast. Heat indices will run into the upper 90s given the elevated humidity (though certainly not quite as bad as, say, July or August). Mostly sunny skies will persist, so don’t count on cloud cover — much less a thunderstorm — to cool things off briefly.

We should see similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures for Friday — not that it is much consolation given the NWS forecast highs are topping out in the low 90s still. Skies will once again be mostly sunny and devoid of afternoon thunderstorms.

Shower and storm chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon into next week as the ridge aloft breaks down a bit. We have a few days of scattered storm chances in the offing getting into next week along with cooler temperatures as a cold front moves across the area before stalling, so the good news is that this won’t last forever. For now, though, stay cool and keep on watering in the evenings.

A cold front will sink south of the area very early Tuesday morning, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for the next couple days before the heat pump really kicks up starting Thursday.

Of course, by “slightly cooler and drier” I mean “it won’t be 90° with a dewpoint in the mid-60s in the afternoon,” so keep that in mind as you set expectations for what Tuesday will feel like. But, indeed, it should feel a little better than Monday did. With a slightly drier airmass, the afternoon cumulus field should be a little bit more scattered, allowing for more sunshine. Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 80s thanks to northeasterly flow developing across the area, coolest at the immediate coast.

The northeasterly winds combined with the recent full moon at perigee should further enhance the risk for tidal flooding with the evening high tide (peaks a little after 10 PM), with another round of moderate flooding likely between 7 and midnight. Be ready for some sporadic road closures once again as a result.

As foretold earlier, we’ll get one more day of comfortable warmth on Wednesday before a warm front lifts north and the heat pump turns on for Thursday and Friday. Expect highs in the mid-90s for the first time this year away from the coast then, with heat indices perhaps creeping into the upper 90s. Summer’s just about here, folks, whether we want it or not!

Summer’s back this week as above-normal temperatures once again take root across the area thanks to high pressure and dry air precluding much in the way of thunderstorm formation for a majority of the week.

Monday afternoon offers the best shot at a shower or thunderstorm — albeit at around a 30% probability — as a cold front approaches the area and stalls out. A storm or two could be on the strong side with damaging wind gusts and large hail possible., but the vast majority of us won’t see severe weather, and a good bit of us may not even see much in the way of rain — unwelcome news for a still-parched Lowcountry.

The aforementioned front stalls out Tuesday and lingers in the area through Wednesday. Drier air, though, is going to keep rain chances squelched for the most part. Once the front lifts back north as a warm front and high pressure builds back from the west Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will start to respond by heading into the low to even mid-90s in some spots, especially Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, rain chances are held to a whimper.

High pressure starts to loosen its grip over the weekend, and afternoon thunderstorm chances start to tick up as a result (though isolated to scattered coverage is expected at best). Highs will continue to run above normal in the low 90s on Saturday before moderating slightly back to the upper 80s on Sunday.

For now, though, keep on watering and feel free to get your car washed, because Mother Nature’s going to be of little to no help in that department for at least the next week.

After today’s round of rain for many of us, we return to a drier and warmer pattern once more as low pressure slips out of the area. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, a good bit of us will remain dry. Highs will begin to head back up starting Saturday, with low-to-mid-80s expected across the area. On Sunday, highs look to peak closer to the upper 80s, and we’ll be flirting with 90° by Monday, as above-normal temperatures are expected heading into much of next week.

Coastal flooding will remain a concern with each high tide cycle through Saturday evening, and then with the evening high tide on Sunday as well. Minor to moderate coastal flooding looks to be probable, with road closures a consideration an hour or two each side of the predicted time of high tide. Expect Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

This weekend’s high tides:

• Saturday: 6:55 AM (approaching minor flood), 7:33 PM (minor flood stage)
• Sunday: 7:46 AM (currently predicted to stay below flood stage), 8:23 PM (minor to moderate flood)

Low pressure, which has brought some generally light showers to the area today, will continue to push southwestward across the area for Friday and the first part of the weekend. The best rain chances arrive tomorrow as the low makes its closest approach, but aside from some pockets of heavier rain, storm totals should generally run around a half-inch to 3/4” at best — certainly not the drought-buster we need. Temperatures will top out a little warmer in the upper 70s to around 80° as winds begin to turn more southerly as the low moves inland.

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two will continue to be possible heading into Saturday as the low meanders westward. Southerly flow around the low will continue to keep the heat pump running, though, and highs should top out in the mid-80s in the afternoon after we start in the mid-60s. While a shower or storm can’t be ruled out for Sunday, most should stay dry, and temperatures continue to nudge upward in the afternoon on the higher end of the mid-80s. By next Monday, we should be in the 90s again, so soak up the last of this cool air while you can!

After a rather gorgeous — if not a touch windy — stretch of weather across the Lowcountry, rain chances return to the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening as coastal low pressure drifts closer to the area. We’ll start to see an increase in cloud cover overnight into tomorrow morning, but the best rain chances should hold off until the afternoon. We may be contending with some showers for the evening drive, so be alert to that possibility. Temperatures will still run on the cool side as breezy north and northeast winds continue across the area; with the cloud cover and approaching rainfall, we shouldn’t see highs much warmer than the mid-70s.

We’ve got one more really good weather day in store for Wednesday before low pressure drifts westward toward the coast, bringing in periods of showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday, leaving some scattered shower activity around for Saturday as well. We could definitely use the rain, and it doesn’t look like there will be any severe weather coming along for the ride, either — a win-win situation considering our worsening drought situation. (We could still see a few thunderstorms, though, and lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous.)

Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday given continued northward winds and then rain-cooled air, especially as we get into Friday. Peeking ahead toward the weekend, though, we will begin to see temperatures rebound into the mid-to-upper 80s as winds go more southerly, with the 90s returning to the picture on Monday. Savor the cooler weather while we’ve got it, because we’ve got fewer and fewer days like this ahead until the fall.

After a highly unseasonably cool Mother’s Day, temperatures will remain generally pleasant over the next few days as high pressure runs the show. We’ll see a gradual warming trend into mid-week, with highs topping out near 80° by Wednesday. Lows, though, will continue to run well below normal in the low to mid-50s away from the coastline into Thursday. Skies should be more clear than we saw for much of today, too — keep the sunscreen applied if you’re out and about!

On Thursday, shower chances will begin to increase in the afternoon as moisture from an offshore low pressure system begins to kick up some as said low moves more westward. The best chance of rain will arrive Friday as the low moves across the area, with the potential for a few heavy downpours in there as well. (Fingers crossed, given the current drought situation!) Shower chances linger into the weekend as above-normal temperatures return. Sunday could once again approach 90° in some locations — ’tis the season.

Mother’s Day in the Lowcountry looks pretty outstanding, weather-wise, if not a touch chilly for this point in the year. A reinforcing cold front will come through overnight, helping to drop tomorrow morning’s lows to the mid-50s. Highs will only reach the low 70s despite mostly sunny skies as a trough lingers aloft. This is well below normal for this time of year — the normal high for May 8 is 82°!

We’ll continue this run of below-normal temperatures for a couple more days. Lows could bottom out in the upper 40s in spots on Monday morning before a warming trend begins. Even still, expect temperatures to run right at or just a touch below normal for much of next week. We have all summer to head back into the 90s each day, after all, so let’s get some more spring in while we still can.