A beautiful day lies ahead with mostly sunny skies expected and comfortably warm temperatures in the low 80s. Expect a few clouds from time to time, but we should generally see more sunshine than we have the past couple days.

Our warming trend continues through the end of the work week. We still appear to be on track to at least challenge a record high or two before the week is over as highs head into the mid-to-upper 80s.

Looking for fall? It’s coming: A front will swing through sometime Saturday evening, and this will send temperatures closer to, if not slightly below, normal for mid-October starting on Sunday. Stay tuned!

Persistent low cloud cover will break up overnight, yielding a pretty nice Tuesday across the Lowcountry as high pressure continues to build in over the area. Temperatures will be seasonably, but not unreasonably, warm as we begin the day in the mid-60s to head to a high of 81° under mostly sunny skies. The north to northeast breeze could be a touch gusty at times, but no major concerns to speak of there.

A brief bout of minor coastal flooding will be possible around the 1:52 PM high tide as water levels in the harbor are forecast to touch 7′. This won’t cause widespread problems, but should still be high enough to put some salt water on Fishburne and Hagood around the Citadel and Gadsden Creek.

The upcoming week looks much more rain-free than the past week was, as ridging aloft builds across the area. Said ridging will drive temperatures up toward “Augtober” levels by the end of the week — mid to upper 80s will be possible, challenging record highs — but the good news is that humidity will remain tolerable. Monday looks to be a rather nice weather day as we begin the day in the mid-60s and top out in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds, a lot like what we saw Sunday.

A front looks to get by the area sometime during the upcoming weekend, and that will have a bit of a downward effect on temperatures, with highs in the 70s in the long range as we get into next Sunday. There are some hints of a little more crisp fall weather as we get into early next week, but we will need to see how things pan out with the front and high pressure behind it. Stay tuned.

Finally, coastal flooding issues will taper off early this week, but minor flooding will be possible once again an hour or two around the 12:46 PM high tide on Monday. This could close a few roads in downtown Charleston, especially near the Citadel and MUSC. The current forecast has some lingering effects for the Tuesday afternoon high tide as well, but it remains to be seen if winds will be enough to push us over the 7’ threshold.

There is a light at the end of this very muggy and rainy tunnel as we get into the weekend. We’ll still be dodging scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Saturday as low pressure meanders nearby and some upper-level energy moves through. By Sunday, though, a little drier air works its way in and the low shifts away for what should turn out to be a fairly nice day. We’ll keep a mix of sun and clouds around, but rain looks to stay away as temperatures peak around 80° in the afternoon — not too bad for this time of year.

We will need to continue to watch times of high tide Saturday and Sunday morning for minor to moderate coastal flooding with the new moon and some north to northeast winds. Tide levels could approach 7.5′ both days, causing some road closures in Downtown Charleston. High tide on Saturday morning will arrive at 10:49 AM, and on Sunday morning around 11:45 AM. Expect flooding 1-2 hours either side of high tide.

Our unsettled pattern continues into the weekend as low pressure meanders offshore and we stay within some troughing aloft. Another round of widespread rain will characterize Friday as storms develop in GA and move northeastward through the afternoon. From there, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Saturday before the aforementioned low pressure moves a little further away to our north and east, allowing for some drier air to filter in from the north to keep Sunday rain-free and a little more comfortable to boot.

Astronomical influences and onshore winds will continue to cause coastal flooding issues around times of high tide through the weekend. Moderate coastal flooding is in the forecast for high tide around 9:58 AM Friday. With the forecast between 7.5-7.7′, we can expect some road closures to occur in and around Downtown Charleston. Another round of moderate coastal flooding, which could peak even higher, is expected Saturday morning around the 10:49 AM high tide, causing another round of road closures. As always, we’ll need to see what the rain is doing around this time as well as any water on top would be most unwelcome. Moderate coastal flooding will again be an issue around midday Sunday, but the risk for rain will be much lower than previous days, so the specter of more widespread problems is diminished.

Hang in there — next week is looking drier, at least. True fall weather, though, still appears to be well down the road as elevated dewpoints and ridging aloft will keep temperatures above normal through the end of next week.

Rinse and repeat: More scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast as we remain within a deep plume of moisture ahead of a large upper low. We’ll sit between that low to the west and ridging to our south, with periodic disturbances rippling through instigating unsettled weather. Temperatures will remain above normal, especially in the mornings as we bottom out only around 72° away from the warmer coastline. (The normal low for early October? 62°.) Highs top out in the low 80s with plenty of cloud cover and rainfall in the area.

This pattern will begin to abate as we get into the weekend with the upper low opening up and retrograding to the north, but isolated to scattered showers will remain in our forecast well into next week.

We’ll want to keep an eye on times of high tide over the next few days, especially in the mornings, as astronomical effects combined with onshore winds will drive tides into flood stage. Salt water flooding could factor into the tail end of tomorrow morning’s commute. Some showers look to move through the area overnight, but should be out of here before tides become a problem.

Scattered storms will enter the picture in earnest for Tuesday, perhaps as early as daybreak, as surface troughing combined with an upper low will provide the necessary ingredients for periods of rain tomorrow and for the next several days. Rainfall amounts should generally be light, but a few downpours within stronger storms cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will reflect the rather soggy atmosphere in place; lows won’t crack 70° in most spots and could bottom out in the mid-to-upper 70s at downtown, while highs won’t top out too far above 80° given expected cloud cover and rainfall in the area.

No severe weather is expected, but we will want to watch for the potential for some salt water flooding around the 7:52 PM high tide as astronomical effects combine with onshore flow to raise water levels in the harbor. The 7:35 AM high tide, which is forecast to fall short of coastal flood stage, will still bear a little watching in case a downpour develops near Downtown around that time, but the flood probability in the morning is generally low.

After a coastal trough made this weekend quite a bit wetter than first anticipated, we’ll see rain chances steadily head up throughout the week as an upper low approaches the area and stalls out. Rain chances continue into the weekend as we watch a surface trough approach the area from the Bahamas.

We’ll likely see a wide scattering of showers on Monday, but between high pressure’s last gasp across the area and the better forcing from the upper low staying just to the west, we’ll likely mark Monday as the driest day of the week. Said upper low gets closer and stalls out Tuesday and Wednesday, helping to enhance lift and moisture transport across the area, which in turn improves rain chances. Moisture hangs around into the weekend, keeping rain chances in place as troughing approaches from the Bahamas. NHC is watching this for a slight chance of tropical development, but high wind shear should preclude any development. Shower chances look to persist into the weekend as a coastal trough redevelops and persists.

Temperatures will remain right around normal for early October, but we will remain on the humid side with lows bottoming out around 70° inland and in the mid-70s near the coast.

High pressure moving into the Atlantic has pushed a coastal trough closer to the coast. Its enhanced moisture convergence has kept us a little cloudier than we might like today, with even some showers coming ashore at times throughout the day. A mix of sun and clouds looks to continue into Sunday, with a slight chance of some showers once again brushing the coast. The vast majority of us look to stay rain-free, and northeasterly winds combined with a little bit more cloud cover should keep temperatures down in the low 80s once again.

All in all, expect another nice weekend across the Lowcountry as a little cooler air works down into the area over the next few days. Temperatures will generally top out in the low to mid-80s across the area, with lows in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s near the coast. Aside from a small risk for a shower or storm tonight, particularly in the upper reaches of the Tri-County, our next appreciable rain chance doesn’t arrive until next Tuesday.

The tropics remain busy, but Hurricane Sam and recently-minted Tropical Storm Victor are staying out to sea and are not threats to the Lowcountry. We may see some enhanced rip current risk and wave action from Sam over the next few days, so be aware of this risk if the beach is in your plans. Otherwise, no concerns. Fingers crossed it stays this way — we’ve got two months to go in what has been a very busy 2021 hurricane season.