This weekend will feature scattered storms both days, with a little better coverage on Saturday as a trough moves inland. The good news is that it won’t rain all day, and there will be plenty of sunshine mixed in around the storms. Coverage becomes more isolated on Sunday, generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major issue, but remember that all thunderstorms are dangerous thanks to the lightning they produce.

Temperatures will run a little warmer this weekend, but onshore flow will continue to keep them tamped down a few degrees below normal (about 90° this time of year). Mix in humidity and it’ll feel a little more like the low 90s in the afternoon. That’s pretty warm, but it could be so much worse in late June.

After a remarkably nice couple days behind a rare summertime cold front, said front retreats back over our neck of the woods as a trough of low pressure on Friday, bringing humidity, showers, and thunderstorms back into the weather picture. These elevated rain chances stick around to start the weekend before tapering off to more traditional isolated afternoon thunderstorm coverage on Sunday. Temperatures warm up from 84° on Friday to 88° on Sunday, but we are typically talking about 90s on a regular basis in late June, so we’ll take it.

One thing I’m not seeing is a total washout of the weekend by any stretch. Don’t cancel outdoor plans, just have a good backup ready to go in case you need it. Remember, all thunderstorms are dangerous because of the lightning they produce. If you see lightning or hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck, so get inside as soon as you can if storms approach.

Coastal flooding will remain a possibility Friday and maybe Saturday nights as lingering astronomical influences and continued onshore flow could push tides above 7’ in the harbor in the late evenings. Be ready for additional bouts of coastal flooding and possible road closures as a result.

A cold front will pass through the area and stall out to the southeast as high pressure wedges down a little bit from the north. This will generate a bit of onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the mid-80s through the end of the work week. This will also combine with enhanced astronomical tides thanks to Thursday’s full moon to cause some minor to moderate coastal flooding each evening through at least Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Friday, with the best chances coming along with the inland-moving seabreeze especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. By Friday, we’ll see an increased chance of thunderstorms as high pressure to the northeast gives way, allowing a trough of low pressure offshore to migrate inland and provide a sharper focus for precipitation to form.

With such saturated ground from a pretty rainy June thus far, we’ll want to watch any areas of heavy rain that develop for an isolated flooding threat. This doubly goes for times of the evening high tides due to the aforementioned king tides. With that in mind, the good news is that it won’t rain all day, every day, and not everyone will see rain every day, either.

Most of us saw a dry day today, giving us a respite from the heavy downpours that have characterized June thus far. A cold front approaching from the west is going to put a swift end to this respite, though, as it runs into an atmosphere still plenty juiced up with tropical moisture and ready to wring out some more rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm coverage could begin to ramp up as early as tomorrow morning (and some guidance is fairly persistent in it firing up as soon as midnight), with the greatest risk of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms could produce torrential downpours which may produce isolated flooding episodes. Overall, 1-2” of rain will be possible across the area with locally higher amounts.

Additionally, there is the potential for wind damage to occur in some of the stronger thunderstorms, especially where outflow boundary collisions occur. Be alert for possible warnings in the afternoon.

The prevalence of showers and thunderstorms will act to keep high temperatures a few degrees below normal, generally running in the mid-80s. Heat indices will still climb into the 90s, though, thanks to the ever-present humidity.

As of about 9PM, Claudette’s center was moving eastward across northern parts of South Carolina. The exact center fix is a little murky, but radar suggests that as of this writing it is roughly riding the SC/NC border around Chesterfield County, SC. The leading edge of Claudette’s primary rain band has cleared downtown Charleston and is headed offshore, with light to moderate rain behind it. This rain band appears to have cleared downtown with relatively little fanfare, but winds have been gusting quite a bit, with a recent gust to 62 MPH recorded at the Isle of Palms WeatherFlow station.

Light to moderate rains look to continue for the next few hours as the primary rain band swings through the area. It appears that there could be additional showers and thunderstorms behind it; these are moving southeastward out of Augusta and could swing around into the Tri-County before it’s all said and done. A Flash Flood Watch continues across the Charleston Metro Area effective until 8am Monday, though this may yet be canceled early once this band lifts out.

The risk for severe weather (particularly the tornado threat) has ended across our area at this point. With the center directly to the north, surface winds coming out of the west lowering shear, and instability having been sapped by the rain band, the environment is not really conducive to tornado formation anymore. We caught a break with this today, especially considering the ample sunshine we saw for a good bit of the day to aid destabilization. Still, straight-line gusts of 40-50 MPH across saturated grounds could still be sufficient for downed trees and power lines, so keep flashlights nearby in case of power outages.

We continue to watch Tropical Depression Claudette’s circulation move through northern Georgia into the Upstate and Midlands of South Carolina this afternoon. NHC’s last fix at 2PM had it roughly around Athens, GA, heading east at 17 MPH. So far, a few spots have seen some brief rainfall, but we have been largely within a dry slot surrounding the inner bands of the circulation. Indeed, it appears that moisture inflow may have been disrupted in part due to vigorous thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast — a common occurrence for choking off more widespread rainfall in our neck of the woods. However, we continue to watch a decent rain band stretching from roughly Mt. Vernon, GA up toward Augusta. This band is steadily making eastward progress, and satellite data suggests it could be becoming a little more vigorous as it moves eastward into a more unstable atmosphere.

A blend of timing tools and model guidance puts this rain band in the Charleston Tri-County area roughly in the 4-6 PM timeframe. It will undoubtedly bring the greatest risk for very heavy rainfall, with models suggesting 1-2″ of rain will be common. 3″+ cannot be ruled out in some spots, either, and wherever this heaviest rain falls could be in line for flooding issues.

High tide is at 4:55 PM. Right now, it appears that the heaviest rain will arrive about an hour or two afterward, but trends will need close monitoring. I would still be prepared for flooding this evening in downtown Charleston.

We’ve had gusty winds in the area thanks to a strong low-level jet — a gust to 32 MPH was recently recorded at Charleston International Airport. Guidance suggests the core of the low-level jet looks to move atop the SC coastline around the time the rain band is moving in, so that could increase the risk for a damaging wind gust or two. This strengthening low-level jet will also assist in creating favorable conditions for a tornado or two, so we’ll want to monitor these trends as we go throughout the day.

Stay weather aware — more updates here and on Twitter as needed.

We will be watching the weather closely today as showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the Tri-County area on the southern flank of Tropical Depression Claudette. Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado or two are all on the table. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 8am Monday, and it is conceivable that a tornado watch will be needed later today.

Tropical Depression Claudette, which is moving through western Alabama this evening, will be taking a bit more of an easterly turn around the subtropical ridge, heading through northern Georgia and SC during the day on Sunday. This will, in turn, bring along another plume of tropical moisture into the area, setting up another round of heavy and perhaps flooding rain in spots, along with the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and maybe a tornado or two.

It’s been a great couple days of weather in the Lowcountry, but the remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three look to bring unsettled weather back beginning Saturday afternoon.

After what ended up being a stellar Thursday for mid-June, we’ll get another warm but less humid day for Friday. Temperatures will start in the upper 60s and will top out around 90° in the afternoon. Dewpoints will run in the upper 60s to around 70°, yielding heat indices a couple ticks above the air temperature, but nothing we can’t handle.

As we get into the weekend, we will start to see tropical moisture increase across the area ahead of what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 3. There are some timing differences in the models which will have influences on the forecast, but for now, Saturday could feature a couple showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours after a high of 91° that will feel closer to 97-98°. As we get into Sunday, moisture continues to increase, and the remnants of the tropical low move roughly along the NC-SC border. This will continue to kick up showers and storms into Sunday. Expect periods of heavy rain at times. The big question, though, remains timing, which has run a little later in recent guidance. Thus, I wouldn’t start canceling too many plans just yet — just keep an eye on forecast updates as we get into the weekend.