It’s been a while since there’s been anything of consequence on radar, but we are beginning to see some rainfall move into the Tri-County from the west now. Some embedded downpours and rumbles of thunder are certainly possible, but the severe weather threat remains low and should stay that way through the evening. Now that we have seen how storms are evolving, the risk for severe weather looks greatest along and south of Interstate 16 in Georgia. A tornado watch is up for Southeast Georgia until 6PM as a squall line moves through. This line stretches from Georgia southwestward into Florida, with the worst of the weather looking to stay south of the Charleston Metro Area.

A couple more rounds of heavy rain are possible through this evening, and we will still need to watch the 6:43 PM high tide very closely for the potential for flooding, especially if heavy rain is ongoing at that time. There remains a marginal risk that one or two storms could still become severe, too, so be sure you can still receive warnings this afternoon and evening. However, a widespread severe weather event is becoming increasingly less likely.

Today marks 23 days without measurable rainfall at the airport. This is the driest start to April since 1976, when it took until the last day of the month to record some measurable rainfall. We will not match that streak this time, though, as a potent storm system will bring us gusty winds, a fair bit of rain, and possibly some severe weather on Saturday.

Friday will start out as another chilly morning as temperatures will dip into the low 40s. Frost should not be a concern in our neck of the woods, though, so no worries for your gardens. Temperatures will top out around 70-71° with cloud cover on the increase ahead of our next storm system. Note that fire danger remains high on Friday given continued dry conditions and low humidity.

Saturday will bring beneficial rain to the area, but it may bring some stronger thunderstorms as well. Showers will be possible on Saturday morning, but the best chance for heavier rain and thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon into the evening hours. NWS estimates rainfall amounts around 1-2″, which would be hugely helpful as long as we don’t get it all at one time. Temperatures look to top out in the mid-70s barring more rainfall earlier in the day. Regardless of thunderstorms, winds should be fairly breezy with gusts perhaps near 35-40 MPH at times.

The severe weather threat for Saturday will largely be modulated by how unstable the atmosphere can get. Wind shear will be plentiful thanks to a strengthening low-level jet and favorable upper-level winds, so that ingredient will certainly be there, and there is general model agreement that moisture will surge into the area later Saturday, which may contribute to further destabilization. A lot will depend on how warm we can get during the day — if rain fires up and sticks around, which is certainly possible, then that takes the severe threat down a peg or two (but doesn’t completely eliminate it given the aforementioned favorable wind shear). If it doesn’t, though, there will be fuel available for the storms by the time they get here, and with the expected shear in place, a few severe storms will be expected. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns, but given the favorable vertical wind profiles, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

All this nastiness clears the area overnight Saturday as a front sweeps through, and by Sunday, we will have a much nicer day with clouds gradually breaking down and temperatures rising into the mid-to-upper 70s. It’ll remain windy throughout the day in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in behind it, but otherwise, there are no weather concerns for Sunday into much of next week as our fairly arid April rolls on.

A cold front has gotten through the area this evening, and temperatures are on their way down in its wake. By morning, we’ll be bottoming out in the mid-40s, and you’ll be excused if you’re not quite sure whether it’s late April or not. Despite unencumbered sunshine, temperatures will only reach the mid-60s as chilly high pressure builds in overhead. The April sun angle should still make short sleeves reasonably comfortable, though.

Wednesday promises to be another warm day across the Lowcountry ahead of a cold front. A dearth of moisture will lead to mostly clear skies despite the front, and with winds picking up out of the west due to a tightening pressure gradient (30+ MPH gusts are possible), we will need to keep an eye on the risk for wildfire danger tomorrow given continued dry conditions across the area. Highs will top out in the low 80s with heat index values running potentially cooler than the air temperature with very low humidity expected. (I don’t get to say that often around here!) The aforementioned cold front will move through the area in the evening, bringing a wind shift to the northwest and a relatively quick cooldown. Cool advection will help knock Thursday morning’s temperatures down into the mid-40s, a tad chilly for this point in April.

Saturday continues to be our next best hope for significant rainfall across the area. It’s looking pretty good for that, too, with perhaps even some thunderstorms getting into the mix as well in the afternoon and evening hours. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, be looking at indoor options.

We’ll see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, allowing for a little more moisture return off the Atlantic. Temperatures will also run a few degrees cooler than we saw today, but we still should remain relatively comfortable.

It looks as if we get much, if not all, of Tuesday in rain-free. A couple of the models continue to come in with some shower activity Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, but it’s unclear if this is overdone. Any rain that falls would be relatively light, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Otherwise, our next substantial rain chance arrives this weekend, most likely Saturday night. More on that as we get through the week.

Our long-standing dry spell will continue for much of this week, save for a small chance of showers on Tuesday as a little upper-level energy ripples through.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail on Monday as temperatures reach right around 80° — still a few degrees above normal at this point in the year. We’ll run a touch cooler on Tuesday with a few more clouds in place and perhaps even a shower or two, but those won’t be enough to break us from our abnormally dry April. Mostly sunny skies return on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front which will swing through overnight. By Thursday, cool high pressure will build in with temperatures near 8-10° below normal across the area under clear skies. High pressure gets off the coast on Friday and temperatures recover to the mid-70s with gradually increasing cloud cover in the evening ahead of a storm system.

If we are going to thwart the driest start to April since 1976, it’s likely going to happen Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as low pressure moves through the area. At this range, of course, there are certainly model differences, and we will need to see how the details ultimately unfold, but this is the best shot at rain we’ve had probably all month! We’ll watch it closely. For now, though, keep watering your plants and washing your cars as we get through another dry work week.

After yesterday turned out to be quite a stunner, we have more good weather in store for today. Temperatures will head into the upper 70s with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Cloud cover will come and go as debris clouds from showers and storms to our south encroach into the area at times, but we look to remain rain-free.

Our dry stretch of weather likely continues into Tuesday at a minimum. Our best chance of rain this month — and it has been a dry month, with only a trace of rain at the airport so far — may not arrive until later Saturday. More on this later today.

As I mentioned last night, the weekend’s forecast remained a bit fluid and there could still be changes. As time has gone on, we’ve seen a more southward trend to this weekend’s rainfall chances as drier air looks to hold on a little more tightly across the area. Thus, shower chances remain generally low as the target timing for showers generally lies between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Looking at the data coming in right now, it certainly looks like Sunday morning may be the better opportunity for some showers to come through, but rainfall amounts look light.

Temperatures will continue to run a little cooler than normal across the area with more cloud cover than sun, but mid-70s won’t feel too bad, either. All in all, it’s not the best weekend of weather we’ve ever had, but it could be a lot worse, too.

A cold front will be moving through tonight, bringing some cooler air to the area as the front settles south and then stalls out. Cooler, drier air should win out on Friday, keeping us rain-free but only in the low 70s. Waves of low pressure along the front reintroduce rain chances for Saturday, with periods of showers expected through the evening. Depending on how Saturday plays out, we should see a rain-free Sunday with temperatures warming back up a little closer to normal.

Exact timing of any rain on Saturday is going to be difficult to pin down even tomorrow. A lot depends on how showers and thunderstorms transpire along the Gulf Coast during the day Friday into early Saturday. A couple of the variables forecasters will be taking into consideration includes whether moisture transport this far up is disrupted due to thunderstorm activity further south of us as well as how far north the frontal boundary can meander. It’s a tricky one — stay tuned. Indoor backup plans are a good idea for Saturday — we’ll just need radar and sharp attention to observations to determine when you’ll need to enact them.