Fall’s hiatus continues this week as we sit between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Eta to the south. Monday looks to be the driest day of the week with just a slight chance of showers throughout the day. Rain chances head up into Wednesday as tropical moisture associated with Eta gets drawn up into the area by a frontal system approaching from the west. This front looks to stall out by the end of the week, keeping a chance for showers in the forecast through the weekend. (Eta could make the weekend a little more wet and windy, so consider that forecast somewhat low-confidence at the moment.)

Temperatures will remain rather warm for early to mid-November. NWS notes that some record high minimum temperatures could fall this week, with lows in the 70s forecasted especially Wednesday and Thursday. (For contrast, the typical high temperature this time of year is around 71-72°.) Highs will generally run in the upper 70s to low 80s, roughly 8-10° above normal for this time of year.

If you’re looking for a shift back into Fall, this week ain’t it. While we may cool off as we get into the following week, long-range guidance continues to hit on above-normal temperatures remaining the norm (as one would expect in a La Niña winter, which tends to trend warmer and drier in the Southeast).

Get your sweaters ready, at least for Monday and Tuesday morning: A cold front swinging through tonight will usher in the coolest airmass of the season thus far. The high of 59° forecast on Monday would be the coolest high since early March, and this is happening despite full sunshine. We could see some frost develop away from the barrier islands Tuesday morning as temperatures dip into the 30s. We’ll rebound to near 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies, making the weather a non-impediment for Election Day.

Temperatures recover fairly quickly as we get into mid-week; we’ll be up into the 70s by Wednesday, and that continues for the rest of the week. We’ll gradually see a warmer and more humid airmass get into the area, with lows creeping up into the 60s by the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers become possible later this week, but so far, not seeing a prolonged rain event.

We’ll close out this rather warm month of October (eighth warmest on record as of this evening) with one last stretch of warm, muggy days before a storm system rolls through the area Thursday into Friday.

Temperatures will head back above normal this week with shower chances coming back into the picture starting Tuesday. Showers will be isolated to scattered at best for most of the week as a coastal trough persists. Onshore flow will keep dewpoints up, making for a warm and humid mid-to-late October week. Expect highs in the 80s just about every day with lows in the mid-60s. (Closer to the coast, take a couple degrees off the high and add it to the low.)

Astronomical influences and onshore winds will send water levels in Charleston Harbor well into flood stage at times of high tide this weekend. Moderate to major coastal flooding (8.0′ MLLW) will be possible with each morning high tide through at least Monday, while minor flooding is expected with each evening high tide. Road closures will be possible at times of high tide, with some routes becoming temporarily cut off due to salt water inundation.

The remnants of Delta are on their way out, giving way to a series of fronts over the next few days that will gradually ease us back into fall weather. First, though, we will still contend with elevated heat and humidity Monday into Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. Then, a front will wedge in from the north, cooling us off a little for Wednesday and Thursday with highs only topping out in the low 80s. A better shot of cooler and drier air arrives late Friday into early Saturday — perhaps with some showers — as another area of high pressure builds in from the west. This one will bring us back to fall, with upper 60s to around 70° for Saturday and low 70s for Sunday.

Temperatures this week will run a little warmer than last week with a bit more moisture in the area. We’ll start off the work week with a pleasant mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid-70s. A little more moisture moves in with a trough of low pressure on Tuesday, bringing some shower chances to the area. Temperatures warm into the low 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before high pressure wedges in, with moisture riding over the top of the wedge bringing some shower chances into the cards. Overall, not too shabby, if not quite as crisp as it felt last week.

We’ll start this new work week rainy and warm ahead of a cold front. NWS is forecasting 1-2″ of rain for most of us through early Wednesday before the front swings through. And once that front swings through, what a difference — humidity will get knocked back down a peg and we’ll get into a really nice fall-like pattern to start October with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s away from the coast.

Keep an eye on Tuesday’s forecast. As the cold front swings through with low pressure riding just to the north, there will be a chance for a couple strong storms. Right now, widespread severe weather is not expected. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Otherwise, make sure your hoodies and other light jackets are present and accounted for as we turn nice and crisp heading into next weekend!

We’ll start the week off continuing our taste of fall, with highs running in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s — the coolest since mid-May — expected through Wednesday. We’ll also continue to take a break from the rain for a few days as high pressure continues to build overhead. Coastal flooding will remain a concern with Monday and Tuesday’s high tides, with major flooding possible with the high tide cycles on Monday before gradually diminishing on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the coastal flooding risk will have ended.

As we get later into the week, we’ll see some moisture stream into the area courtesy of the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta. This could instigate a few showers at times as we head into the weekend. We’ll also see an uptick in temperatures and humidity as well, but we’ll stay right around normal for late September, so don’t expect anything too heinous.

If you step outside this morning, you’ll notice a welcome lack of humidity as high pressure wedges in from the north, drying out the air at the surface (though cloud cover will remain in place today thanks to some moisture trapped between 4-6,000 feet as well as some upper-level energy that will stir up high cloud cover later today). Dewpoints this morning were running well into the low 60s, with even a reading of 59° at Charleston International Airport at 8am.

Unfortunately, this surge of Fall weather will also come with several rounds of major coastal flooding this weekend into early next week.