Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a front sinks into the area and stalls out. A good bit of you should see at least some rain tomorrow and over the next few days as the stalled front continues to hang around with plenty of available moisture. Given the time of year, of course, not everyone will see the same amount of rain — some of you could see very little, while others may be crying “Uncle!” by the time the week is over. It all ultimately depends on small mesoscale accidents that are impossible to predict with more than an hour or two of lead time. On average, a half-inch to an inch of rain in spots through the end of the week looks pretty reasonable.

Showers and storms will keep us out of the 90s for the foreseeable future, too. Tuesday will run in the upper 80s, but we should see temperatures suppressed solidly in the mid-80s for the rest of the week with the ongoing unsettled pattern. It looks like we’ll keep elevated storm chances into the holiday weekend, too, so be thinking about a backup plan for your outdoor activities to celebrate the Fourth.

At Sunday dinner tonight, my mom remarked to me that her grass was getting awfully crunchy with the lack of rain. Fear not, Mom and others: Rain chances return to the forecast starting Tuesday and will continue for the next several days as a front presses into the area and stalls out. We could see some fairly heavy downpours at times as precipitable water values — essentially, the amount of water you could wring out of a column of air — approach 2″ across the area heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. The caveat, as always, is that it won’t rain all the time at any one location, and some locations will see more rain than others. (A few spots might even get shut out. Such is life in late June.) Once the front washes out and high pressure rebuilds heading toward the weekend, storms will be more scattered in nature, driven by typical daytime heating and forcing along the seabreeze. Overall, most spots can expect generally about 3/4″ of rain on average during the week with locally heavier amounts. It’s not going to bust the drought, but it should at least blunt it a little.

Cloud cover and thunderstorms will also help to keep temperatures down; below-normal temperatures are forecast for a good chunk of the week, in fact, with heat indices not really factoring in all that much especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday will act as the high-mercury mark for the week, starting us in the low 90s before the front approaches and temperatures generally top out in the mid-to-upper 80s for the rest of the week. We could see another run at 90° for Sunday as the aforementioned high pressure settles back in, but all in all, welcoming July without oppressive heat and some beneficial rain isn’t all bad.

While not quite as dry as we saw this past weekend, humidity will certainly not be stifling this weekend with east and northeast flow keeping cooler and drier air in place. After a nice start to Saturday morning, expect highs to top out just shy of 90° (even cooler closer to the coast). Thanks to the lower dewpoints, heat indices will not run too far out of bounds — probably topping out around 92°. Sunday will bring similar conditions with even more in the way of sunshine. Our next rain chance will be Tuesday, with chances heading up as we head further into the next work week. That being said, we have plenty of time later to think about the next work week — let’s enjoy the weekend first.

A front will sag southward across the area on Friday, bringing with it some cooler temperatures and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. We’ll lop about 6-8° off today’s observed high of 96° tomorrow as winds turn a little more onshore as the front gets by. Only a few of us will see storms tomorrow, so keep the watering gear on standby as you’ll probably need it for a few more days.

Ridging aloft will continue to build into the area for the weekend, but east to northeast winds at the surface will help keep temperatures and humidity (to an extent) in check. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90° each afternoon with dewpoints running in the upper 60s, yielding heat indices in the low 90s. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with the somewhat drier atmosphere and sinking air keeping updrafts in check. While the air won’t feel quite as nice as last weekend, it’ll still be a good couple beach days. Pack the sunscreen!

Thursday will be the hottest day this week as air temperatures return to the mid-to-upper 90s across the Lowcountry in the afternoon. Unfortunately, dewpoints will also have recovered back into the 70s, and that could put us close to heat advisory territory for Thursday afternoon as heat indices could approach 105°. There will, however, be a shot at some isolated thunderstorms later in the afternoon into the evening hours as the seabreeze makes its move inland. Lightning and gusty winds will be the primary concern from any thunderstorm that forms, but so far widespread severe weather doesn’t look likely.

After today came in cooler than expected thanks to some cloud cover (and even a few light showers), the heat should begin to really kick back in on Wednesday as we’ll see much more sunshine than we did today. The atmosphere remains dry and capped, and that will keep afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances at bay for one more day. 70s dewpoints return in earnest for Thursday, and that combined with a 97° air temperature will drive heat indices into the lower 100s in the afternoon. We’ll also start to see the standard slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday. A weak front will head south across the area late Thursday into Friday, taking the edge off the higher heat for Friday with highs topping out around 90°. We’ll keep a slight chance of seabreeze storms in the forecast to close out the week.

Tuesday will be another warm day with plenty of sunshine and still-tolerable humidity. Highs will continue their warming trend, with low-to-mid 90s possible in the afternoon hours. Dewpoints in the low 60s, though, will yield relative humidity values around 35-40% at the peak of the day. This could make the heat index feel slightly cooler than the air temperature, which is a welcome anomaly for this point in the year. Much like the past few days, the drier air will help suppress afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

The warmest day this week looks to be Wednesday, as highs top out in the upper 90s away from the coast (though, thankfully, we’ll still benefit from some drier-than-normal air to keep heat indices somewhat in check). Wednesday could challenge the record high (98° in 2015 and 2011) so we’ll want to keep an eye on that. Dewpoints return to the 70s on Thursday, and heat indices will respond by heading into the low 100s. We’ll also start to see some slight afternoon shower and storm chances creep back into the forecast, too. Temperatures moderate a little on Friday with a little more onshore flow but also a small uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances as well.

All good things must come to an end, and that includes our brief respite of below-normal temperatures that we’ve seen today. We do get one more crisp (by June standards) morning with lows bottoming out in the low 60s away from the immediate coast Monday morning. This will be followed by highs rising to around 90° in the afternoon. Thankfully, humidity will stay on the lower side to start the week as drier air remains firmly in place. Northwest flow around an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will act to further dry out the atmosphere during the day, which will also help temperatures out to the mid-90s on Tuesday and the upper 90s on Wednesday thanks to compressional heating from downslope flow. The tempering of humidity will help keep heat indices from getting too far out of whack, but at the end of the day, the mid-to-upper 90s is still pretty hot weather. The lack of moisture will suppress development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, so we look to stay rain-free through Wednesday.

We’ll start to see changes on Thursday as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure shifts west a bit. This combined with a little bit more troughiness and onshore flow at the surface will help reintroduce some slight shower and thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday afternoons. A front encroaching on the area could lead to a little uptick in storm chances for next weekend, but so far it doesn’t look like anything completely out of the ordinary for mid-to-late June.

Folks, we’ve been handed a gift: A very not-humid, spring-ish mid-June day for Father’s Day. We start the day with lows in the mid-60s away from the coastline under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will warm into the mid-80s in the afternoon while dewpoints mix out into the 50s — very rare air for this point in the year around here. This will yield relative humidity values below 40%, and as such, a wonderful Father’s Day gift from Mother Nature. We’ll have a few clouds from time to time, so make sure you’re using sunscreen, but other than that, there are no weather concerns. Enjoy!

Another hot day lies ahead as air temperatures head back up to the mid-90s thanks to downslope flow from the Appalachians. Said downsloping, though, will help keep dewpoints — and the heat index — from getting too far out of bounds. Heat indices will “only” peak around 100° this afternoon. While still quite hot, we aren’t headed into that more dangerous temperature territory today as a result of the drier air. This will also essentially suppress thunderstorm development; in fact, today marks the beginning of what looks to be a rain-free few days across the area. With just a few clouds expected, definitely deploy the sunscreen as the UV index approaches 11 during the peak of the day.