Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.
A coastal trough will bring our first mentionable shower and storm chances in a few days for Sunday as a few showers and thunderstorms could drift ashore from time to time. While some of the high-resolution guidance has been awfully aggressive about rainfall amounts and how far inland measurable rain gets, generally expect the best chance for any showers toward the coast. An isolated downpour can’t be ruled out particularly if deeper moisture can make it ashore. With all that said, the rain chances are far from substantial enough for canceling any outdoor plans — just keep an eye out tomorrow in the unlikely event a storm approaches.
Temperatures will continue to run right around normal for this point in the year. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s across much of the metro (low 70s at the beaches) before temperatures head up to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints are forecast to approach 70° in the afternoon, and that’ll yield heat indices in the low 90s at peak heating.
We’ll see similar conditions on Monday before a ridge of high pressure asserts control at the surface and aloft. We’ve got a few hot days in store next week, with air temperatures in the low 90s possible mid-week as we reach the autumnal equinox and Fall begins. A dry front will usher in a shot of cooler and drier air just in time for the weekend, though. NWS’s opening bid for next Saturday: Low 66°, high 81°, mostly sunny skies, dewpoints in the low 60s. (Can we fast-forward?)
We’ve got a pleasant weekend ahead, despite humidity creeping back up for Sunday with the specter of a stray shower or two in the mix.
Saturday’s the pick day, in my view: it’ll be the last day of the lower humidity we’ve been experiencing over the past few days, which will keep that high of 86° feeling like it’s 86°. On Sunday, we’ll see a little bit more in the way of humidity working back into the area as dewpoints creep back up to around 70° in the afternoon, causing that high of 86° to feel closer to 90-91°. A stray shower isn’t out of the question, but the vast majority of us look to stay dry.
We’ve got a much nicer-looking weekend ahead than we had last weekend as a few more days of comfortable temperatures and generally quiet weather continue across the area. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will generally be the rule each day. We start Friday back in the mid-60s for one more day before dewpoints begin to creep up heading into the weekend, nudging lows up to the upper 60s for Saturday and Sunday. Highs, though, will remain in the mid-80s — right at normal for this point in the year.
Sunday’s looking like the only day that could see a little shower and storm activity. A wave of low pressure is expected to form along a stationary front well to our south, with a coastal trough developing on its northern flank. This may be enough to push a few showers and storms inland from the Atlantic, but rain chances are slight at best; many of us should stay rain-free. Otherwise, though, quiet weather looks to persist well into next week as ridging develops aloft. Temperatures will warm a bit more under this ridge, and it’ll feel a touch more humid with dewpoints climbing to around 70° beginning Saturday night and Sunday, but rain chances remain next-to-nothing heading into next week. (We’ll take all the drying out we can get.)
We’ve got a really nice weather day coming up for Thursday. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the coast (where the warmer water temperatures will keep lows above 70°). Temperatures will head into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies with a northeasterly breeze keeping things feeling seasonable. Meanwhile, dewpoints will mix out to around 60°, making for a very comfortable afternoon. All in all, it should be a really nice day to get out and about a bit as you can — I’d certainly recommend it.
Pleasant weather will continue for Friday into the weekend, too. A coastal trough could help get a shower or two toward the area on Saturday and Sunday, but otherwise, expect rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures.
A cold front is working its way through the area this evening which will usher in some positive changes for our weather as we close out the work week.
First thing you’ll notice on Wednesday morning is that it’ll almost feel a little more like fall (away from the coast, anyway — the warm water temperatures will blunt the cooldown some there). Expect lows in the mid-60s to start the day; dewpoints in the low 60s will feel fairly amazing coupled with those temperatures. Highs head to the mid-80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with a northeasterly breeze. Rain chances are very minimal, though the happy hour NAM was a bit intrigued with the idea of a few seabreeze popup showers in the afternoon. This seems to be an outlier solution, though.
Winds turn a touch more easterly on Thursday, which could expose the coastal areas a bit more to the potential for a few showers and storms to drift ashore. This’ll depend on where the front ultimately stalls out, and the probabilities for precipitation remain rather low in general. Otherwise, skies will once again be partly cloudy; lows will run in the upper 60s and highs in the mid-80s with continued comfortable dewpoints.
Friday looks to feature a little bit more in the way of sunshine, though northeasterly winds will keep warmth from running wild as we top out once again in the mid-80s after a nice start to the day with lows just below 70°. Rain chances are once again so low as to be unmentionable, though we’ll want to continue to monitor trends with the front and any waves that might try to form along it.
Overall, though, a solid close to the work week as we emerge from a drencher of a few weeks. Good-looking weather continues into the weekend, too as high pressure continues in place over the area. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a coastal trough that looks to take shape, which may provide a focal point for a few isolated showers in the afternoons, mainly near the coast. We’ll watch trends, but in the meantime, enjoy the tiny sniff of fall — it’s better than what we’ve had, that’s for sure…
Ready for a break in the humidity? If so — as I suspect most of you are — it begins on Tuesday as drier air filters into the area throughout the day. We’ll see dewpoints fall from the low 70s to start the day to the mid-60s by sundown. High temperatures will still top out in the upper 80s, and it’ll still feel a little more like 90-91°, but overall, it’ll start to feel a lot better. There’s a small chance for a few showers to fire near the coast in the late afternoon, but the vast majority of us look to stay rain-free under partly cloudy skies.
It gets better from here, too: Wednesday morning will feel positively refreshing with dewpoints in the low 60s and air temperatures in the mid-60s away from the coast. It’ll also be the first day with zeroed-out rain chances all month. Should be an excellent day for an outdoor lunch or an evening walk. (Why not both?)
Rain chances within onshore flow creep up a bit starting Thursday as a coastal trough forms, but temperatures will remain a little more seasonable — not quite fall, but not quite blazing summer, either, as highs top out in the low 80s after morning lows in the upper 60s.
We’ll get a chance to dry out a little bit this week as a front swings through, ushering in some cooler and drier air around midweek. Rain chances don’t totally evaporate, though, and we’ll keep the risk for isolated to scattered storms especially as we approach the weekend. (At least it will feel quite a bit better than it has over the past few days!)
Monday will mark one more day with the unseasonably moist airmass that’s been torturing us for much of recent memory blanketing the area. There will be a slight chance for some morning rain, but much of that should be out of here by sunrise. We’ll wake up to lows in the mid-70s (higher near the coast and downtown) before highs reach the upper 80s under partly cloudy skies. A scattering of showers and thunderstorms will fire off in the afternoon and evening hours. Not everyone gets wet, but some heavy rain will be possible in the strongest storms.
Changes begin to arrive Tuesday as the front moves into the area. We should still see a fairly warm afternoon — highs mid-to-upper 80s are expected — but storm coverage should be a bit more sparse as some drier air begins to work into the area. The front gets through overnight Tuesday and we’ll start Wednesday perhaps in the upper 60s in some spots away from the coast. (Baby steps.) There will be a slight chance of showers coming ashore in the afternoon, but overall expect a partly cloudy day with less humidity than we’ve seen over the past few weeks.
High pressure wedging into the area will keep highs suppressed to the mid-80s Thursday and the low 80s for Friday and the weekend. There will be a chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm depending on the track of a low that develops along the front, but certainly nothing like the sog-fest that we’ve seen lately.
Expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday as moisture continues to pump into the area from the Gulf and beyond. We may see some pre-sunrise showers and storms in the area to start the day, but the greater probability of precipitation will arrive in the afternoon as the seabreeze begins trekking inland and thunderstorms get rolling. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns for any thunderstorm that develops. Once again, don’t expect it to rain all day at any one location — just be ready to move outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.
Given the scattered cloud cover, expect temperatures to head into the upper 80s in the afternoon. Mix in the humidity, though, and it’ll feel closer to 100-102°. Given just how much rain has fallen in the last few days, too, grassy areas without much tree cover may be especially heinous.
Elevated rain chances continue for Monday, but we will start to see a bit calmer weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday before a front stalls out nearby Thursday, which will bring some scattered rain chances back into the picture — though right now, it looks nothing like we’ve been experiencing recently.
The weather pattern remains fairly active heading into the weekend, and there will be a continued risk for tidal flooding around times of high tide. It won’t rain all the time, though.
We enter Saturday with a front draped near the coast. This front will begin to lift northward during the day; this will focus the potential for heavier rain a little more inland than we’ve seen the past couple days. We may have a few showers around in the morning, but expect more robust showers and thunderstorms to initiate in the vicinity of the front by mid-afternoon. As mentioned, these will be on and off storms, and it won’t rain all day. Be flexible with outdoor plans and be ready to head inside at a moment’s notice in case storms threaten. Temperatures will head into the mid-80s ahead of showers and storms as we get on the warmer side of the front.
We’ll start to see some changes in the upper-air configuration on Sunday as the cutoff low starts to open up and lift out as a trough comes out of the central US. The moisture tap will remain wide open, and with the additional energy from the trough, we should see on and off showers and thunderstorms particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain remains a chief concern as precipitable water values range from 2-2.2″. Temperatures will run in the mid-80s once again ahead of any showers and storms.
We will still be contending with the risk for tidal flooding around times of high tide. Minor flooding will be possible Saturday morning around 7-11am, while moderate flooding will become a possibility Saturday evening around 7-11pm. Another couple rounds of minor flooding will be possible again with Sunday’s high tides, though we’ll see less severity with those overall as winds start to lose some of that more easterly onshore component.
