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Tag: daily forecast

Heat continues through the weekend and into next week

/ July 27, 2022 at 5:58 PM

Another hot day is in store Thursday. After starting in the upper 70s away from the coast and Downtown (lower 80s there, gross), temperatures will warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Mix in humidity and that’ll yield heat indices around 106°, plenty warm enough for heat exhaustion concerns during the peak of the afternoon. Much like today, expect rain-free conditions to persist as high pressure and the surface and aloft keep thunderstorm development at bay. Indeed, the only relief may be a cumulus cloud or two blocking out a bit of sun for a time.

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Tuesday turns warmer; storms less prevalent

/ July 25, 2022 at 6:12 PM

We saw a lot less rainfall across the area today as ridging began to take hold. This continues into tomorrow and for much of the rest of the week as high pressure strengthens and maintains its grip. Highs will top out in the low 90s; mix in some humidity and you’ve got yourself heat indices in the low 100s.

Rain-wise, there’s not too much to write home about: We’ll have a shot at a shower or storm or two in the morning along the coast, but much of that activity should remain largely offshore. An isolated storm or two cannot be totally ruled out in the afternoon; where a storm fires, the rain could turn heavy and winds could be briefly gusty. However, the vast majority of us should stay dry. Expect this pattern to largely repeat itself for the rest of the work week, too, just with warmer air temperatures contributing to heat indices eventually reaching 105-110° by Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday: Another steamy day with afternoon thunderstorms possible

/ July 20, 2022 at 7:10 PM

We’ve got another warm, steamy day ahead on Thursday with the potential for heavy afternoon thunderstorms once again affecting the area. Temperatures will start in the mid-70s once again, and your glasses (sun or otherwise) will almost certainly fog up when you walk outside in the morning. Temperatures should rise to the low 90s by early afternoon, and when you factor in the humidity, it’ll feel closer to 105-106° or so — certainly stifling heat that’ll require precautions against heat exhaustion or heat stroke if you must be outside tomorrow afternoon.

Attention will then turn to the threat for showers and thunderstorms. The seabreeze may once again be the culprit for at least an initial round of storms, while west-northwest flow aloft will be monitored closely for any thunderstorm complexes that can develop and push our direction. The seabreeze should have an easier time moving inland tomorrow than it did today, but it could still face some resistance and stay pinned closer to the coast. We’ll want to watch the seabreeze’s inland progression carefully; the lack of such progression today, with storms firing along it and then training heavy rain in the same places, led to 2″ of rain in a little over an hour in spots and resulted in yet another urban flooding event in downtown Charleston. If storms get going, they’ll have plenty of moisture to work with, as precipitable water values continue to be in the 2-2.2″+ range. Hopefully we won’t see a repeat of today — odds are, we won’t — but we’ll keep an eye on it regardless.

Hot, steamy Tuesday with a few afternoon storms

/ July 18, 2022 at 10:33 PM

Tuesday will be another steamy July day in the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s in much of the metro area, while the beaches and downtown may very well not get below 80°. Highs will climb into the low 90s; mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Unlike the past few days, showers and thunderstorms should hold off until the afternoon. As always, a strong storm or two can’t totally be ruled out, with wet microbursts a possibility. More broadly, though, heavy rain will be possible as precipitable water values remain around 2”, and ample amounts of energy will be conducive to lightning-laden storms.

We’ll stay in the 90s for much of the rest of the week, with heat indices approaching 105° at times. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will be the rule, with perhaps a little uptick in activity heading toward Friday as a front approaches the area.

Entering another soggy stretch to close the work week

/ July 13, 2022 at 8:07 PM

Another front will be approaching the area on Thursday, and this will bring a renewed round of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, one or two of which could be on the strong to severe side with damaging wind gusts. The main concern, though, will be the potential for very heavy rain. We’ve gotten pretty waterlogged in the past few weeks, and continued heavy rain on top of it will lend itself to the risk of some flooding.

It will be another sauna day, with highs topping out around 90° and heat indices rising into the low 100s thanks to the continued stifling humidity that’s blanketed our neck of the woods for the better part of July. The heat and humidity should help fuel-wise for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

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Tuesday: Turning warmer with scattered storms

/ July 11, 2022 at 8:27 PM

After an absolutely delightful break from the heat today — as of this writing, today’s high was 80°, putting us on track to break the record low maximum temperature of 81° set in 1972 — we return to a little more reality for Tuesday as the wedge of high pressure in place today breaks down and the stationary front washes out. Air temperatures will approach 90° in the afternoon, and with the humidity in place, it’ll feel closer to 100°.

Showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility throughout the day, with the best chance in the afternoon. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a few storms earlier in the morning, though, based on some of the high-resolution guidance. In particular, the HRRR depicts a cluster of storms moving northeastward through the Tri-County in the morning, and the NAM 3km gives some support to this idea as well. We’ll want to keep an eye on that for commute-time downpours. Otherwise, the seabreeze should do its thing in the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms a possibility along and ahead of it. Not everyone will see a storm, but where it does storm, there will be a risk for heavy rain considering the abnormally high moisture content in our little slice of the atmosphere. Lightning and maybe an isolated wet microburst will pose a concern as well, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Moderate coastal flooding will be a concern in the evening around the 7:47 PM high tide. Water levels could approach 7.6-7.8′ in the harbor, leading to another round of road closures due to salt water flooding. With any luck, the thunderstorm threat should be inland by this point, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday before another front approaches Thursday, driving rain chances up quite highly once again to close out the week. We’ll want to watch Thursday and Friday for the potential for another round of flooding rainfall, too. As always, stay tuned…

Sunday: Storms becoming numerous by afternoon, heavy rain and minor flooding possible

/ July 9, 2022 at 10:15 PM

Another round of soaking, heavy rain is expected on Sunday as a front sinks into the area and stalls out. There will be a chance of rain for much of the day, but the best risk of rain will arrive in the afternoon and evening hours as thunderstorms look to erupt near the frontal zone as well as on other boundaries. Thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rain and a good bit of lightning. Minor flooding will be a concern given 2.3-2.4” precipitable water values — atmospheric moisture that’s very much on the top end of what we’d see this time of year. We’ll also want to watch closely around the time of the evening high tide (5:48 PM) for the potential for heavy rain and said tide to coincide, perhaps increasing the flood threat for downtown Charleston in particular. An isolated wet downburst could pose an issue as well, but the overall severe threat will be limited.

We should see temperatures run up to the mid-80s before storms fire; this, combined with mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints will yield heat indices around 100° in the afternoon.

Stay alert for rapidly changing conditions tomorrow, and be ready to find alternate routes in case you encounter flooded roadways!

Thursday: Another hot one, better PM storm chances

/ July 6, 2022 at 10:40 PM

We’ve got another hot day on tap Thursday as heat indices soar well into the 100s, perhaps approaching 110° in the afternoon. (Never mind the fact that the lows will barely get below 80° inland and likely will stay in the 80-82° range at the coast.) Once again, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the seabreeze, and we’ll be watching once more for the potential for a more organized thunderstorm complex to approach the area later in the evening, possibly bringing some gusty winds along with it. Overall, there will be plenty of fuel for any storms to work with, but shear remains light. Thus, if storms produce severe weather, it’ll likely be in the form of downburst winds. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rain could factor into any storm that gets going, too, so be aware of that if you’re out and about Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday: Heat indices 105-107°, then some storms

/ July 5, 2022 at 10:23 PM

Wednesday will be another quite hot July day ahead of the usual round of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. After a very muggy start — lows in the upper 70s inland, probably not getting below 80° downtown and at the beaches — expect air temperatures to top out in the low-to-mid-90s across the area. Mix in dewpoints running in the mid-to-upper-70s and that’ll yield heat indices approaching 107° in the peak of the afternoon. You’ll definitely want to be taking frequent breaks and getting plenty of water if you’ll be outside for an extended period tomorrow. (Note that Heat Advisory criteria for July onward is heat indices at or above 110° for more than two hours, so while these heat indices would have garnered an advisory last month, they will not in this case.)

Showers and thunderstorms should once again develop along and ahead of the seabreeze in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be primed for a strong storm or two, with plenty of available energy for storms to tap into once the capping inversion erodes. Damaging wind gusts and maybe even some hail will be possible in the strongest storms, while all storms will be capable of locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Not everyone will see severe weather, much less a storm at all — coverage looks scattered at best. But if you do, it could be a good one.

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Independence Day: Hot, humid, scattered thunderstorms

/ July 3, 2022 at 9:58 PM

As is customary for the Lowcountry, heat and humidity will feature prominently in the Independence Day forecast, with some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms to cool some of us off. Before thunderstorms fire, we should see temperatures reach into the upper 80s to low 90s away from the somewhat cooler (but still quite humid) coastline. This warmth when combined with mid-70s dewpoints will yield heat indices in the low 100s for tomorrow. Be sure to get plenty of water and shady breaks if you’re outside for an extended period. (Don’t forget the sunscreen, either.)

By 1-2 PM, we should begin to see some showers and thunderstorms start to initiate along and inland of the seabreeze circulation. We’ll want to watch the 1-4PM period closely for the greatest risk for lightning to the beaches as there will be more than ample instability for strong updrafts to develop. (Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!) Places that get caught under a thunderstorm will not see it move too terribly much during its lifecycle; with precipitable water values at or exceeding 2″, we could see some pockets of rather heavy rain in a short time in some spots. Wind shear is nearly nonexistent, so severe weather looks quite unlikely outside of the potential for a wet microburst somewhere. Severe potential aside, lightning makes all thunderstorms dangerous, so please do move indoors if you see lightning or hear thunder.

The good news, though, is that the Fourth of July will not be a complete washout. We should see storms begin to clear the Tri-County by early evening as the seabreeze progresses inland, and fireworks shows should be very much go for liftoff. Have a safe and fun holiday!