We have an even warmer day on tap for Tuesday before storms move in late in the afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front. We’ll start the day in the low 60s before temperatures head to the mid-80s away from the cooler coastline. The warmest it’s been so far this year is 86° on February 23rd and again on February 25; we should tie this tomorrow. (The daily record high of 92°, set in 1989, is safe.)

We’ll be watching a cold front move into the area throughout the day Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front, with brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds the main concern. There’s a low risk that a storm could produce a damaging wind gust or two, but severe weather doesn’t look to be a big concern with tomorrow’s front.

Rain should clear the area with the front by daybreak Wednesday, leaving behind cooler, drier air and overall pleasant weather for the next couple days. High pressure shifts offshore thereafter, and a warming trend will commence heading into the weekend. We could be in the mid-80s again by Sunday with a slight storm chance to go with it. Overall, though, quiet weather remains the rule as we head into the second half of the week.

We have another warm — and even slightly muggy — day ahead of weather as temperatures head back into the low 80s once again. Onshore flow will help keep dewpoints somewhat elevated, putting a touch of muggy into the air, but it’s nothing terribly out of the ordinary for this point in the year. We may contend with some patches of fog in the morning, but these should mix out shortly after sunrise.

One potential fly in the ointment to this forecast is something we saw this morning and could repeat itself tomorrow: the risk for a very isolated shower. The convection-allowing models have a few areas of low-end reflectivity coming ashore between 8am-12pm. This is likely the model depicting a somewhat more agitated cumulus field within an area of low-level convergence on the periphery of the surface high. However, I bring it up because this morning’s cumulus field did, in fact, toss some raindrops on me as I was doing my morning walk. So, we’ll see. All that said, though, if you see a raindrop or two tomorrow, don’t be totally surprised, then go buy a lottery ticket. It might be your lucky day.

After another cool day by mid-April standards, we return to the 70s on Thursday as surface high pressure shifts offshore and we begin to see ridging start to build in aloft. We’ll have a few more clouds than we’ve seen in previous days with a little more available moisture, but they will be benign and non-precipitating.

A cold front will continue to press south of the area this evening, clearing things out and cooling things off to kick off a stretch of pleasant weather. We’re gonna be pretty chilly to start this stretch off, though — lows Tuesday morning will dip into the upper 40s, but more notably, highs will only top out in the mid-to-upper 60s despite clear skies.

This chill will continue into Wednesday morning, with mid-40s lows a good bet in the metro area (trending even cooler in more rural areas). The trend will be warmer from that point forward, though, and before you know it we’re back in the 80s for Friday and the weekend.

Rain-free conditions will continue throughout the rest of the week into next Monday. Peeking ahead, it may not be until Wednesday before we start to see some showers work back into the forecast. Stay tuned for that, but in the meantime, enjoy the nice stretch of weather!

We’re looking at another unsettled day for Easter Sunday as a cold front sinks south of the area, stalls out, and disturbances ride atop it to generate more showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening hours.

We could have some showers in the area on Easter morning, but these should be relatively tame and not drop too much in the way of rain (though a downpour can’t be ruled out particularly as we get later into the morning). It’ll start out warm and muggy, with lows only getting into the mid-60s. A front will push southward across the area during the morning, as well, marked by winds shifting to the northeast. This will limit temperatures to the mid-70s at best.

The better rain chances will arrive later in the afternoon into the evening with another disturbance swinging through. We could see some substantial rain from this round, with some spots potentially seeing up to 1-2” of rain. This rain will persist overnight and into Monday, as well.

One thing we will need to watch very closely for late Sunday: Tides. With winds turning northeasterly and the ongoing perigee, water levels could approach moderate flood stage with the 9:37 PM high tide. If heavy rain is in the area leading up to or during these high tides, we will almost certainly see some decent flooding in parts of downtown Charleston. Not a given yet, for sure, but something to watch very closely to see if things line up.

If you’re celebrating, I hope you have a happy Easter!

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, packing a (thankfully weaker) line of showers and thunderstorms that will continue to lose oomph as it trudges ever eastward. We should get a majority of the day in rain-free, with only slight shower and storm chances as we get later into the afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the low 80s despite the increased cloud cover. The better rain chances are pegged for later in the evening and into Friday morning, which you’ll want to keep in mind for dinner plans and beyond. Severe thunderstorms are highly unlikely in the Charleston metro area, with a low risk of severe weather around and west of I-95.

We’ve got another mostly sunny day in store for Tuesday. We’ll start the day about 10° warmer than we did today, bottoming out in the upper 50s as opposed to the 40s. Temperatures should reach the 80s away from places near the coast such as downtown or the islands, where we’ll run a few degrees cooler. The beaches themselves could run significantly cooler.

Quiet weather continues into at least Wednesday before a slight rain chance enters the weather picture Thursday as a front gets close to the area. On and off showers and storms will be possible thereafter, possibly through the weekend, as the front stalls nearby. The good news is that no severe weather is expected as the shear and instability parameters are solidly in the “meh” category, at least as far as the global models can resolve right now.

Thursday will start unsettled, but we will dry out as the day goes on as the cold front finally gets through the area, changing up the airmass and leading to a really gorgeous weekend. We will likely wake up to showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the area; this could have some commute impacts, but no severe weather is expected. Showers will gradually scour out throughout the day and we should end with a fair bit of sunshine. Highs will top out around 80° ahead of the front; that’ll be as warm as we get until next week.

The weekend looks pretty great, if not downright chilly at times. I hope you haven’t stowed your hoodies, because you’re gonna need them Saturday as highs only top out in the mid-60s! The April sun angle will make that feel pretty good, though. Savor these days — not many more of them until we get into the dredges of summertime in the Lowcountry.

After what turned out to be a rather raucous and busy Tuesday in the weather department, we look to potentially have additional strong to severe storms develop on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area and mid-level energy comes up from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability should once again develop nicely, and with the assist from the pocket of energy aloft, there’s another shot at organized thunderstorms across the area. Severe weather should not be as widespread as it was today, but there will be the risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a tornado in the strongest storms. We could see a smaller but still organized line of thunderstorms come out of Georgia and move through the area in the 8-10 PM timeframe, so we’ll want to watch model trends on that carefully.

Outside of thunderstorms, it’ll be another warm and muggy day in the warm sector. Lows will bottom out just in the mid-60s, while highs should peak in the low 80s before thunderstorms develop.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Thursday morning before a cold front sweeps this mess offshore, setting us up for a pleasant — if not a touch chilly! — Friday and the weekend.

A vigorous complex of showers and thunderstorms will traverse the Southeast tomorrow, arriving here in the Lowcountry around early evening with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.

Tuesday’s severe weather potential has a little different feel in that there’s a good chance more instability will be available ahead of the line, as it should be coming through right in that sweet spot time of 5-10 PM or so. (Stay tuned for inevitable tweaks to exact timings as the storm system gets underway.) Wind shear is plentiful, on the order of 50-60 knots, and if thunderstorm updrafts can take advantage of instability rooted in the surface, there will be plenty of available energy for strong to severe thunderstorms. (More on this in a sec, though.) Despite expected cloud cover, the heat pump is on, and warm and moist air will flow into the area readily during the day, allowing for highs near 80°. Winds outside of thunderstorms will once again be gusty as well, with gusts 30+ MPH not out of the question particularly on elevated surfaces.

Damaging straight-line wind gusts are certainly the main concern, with probabilities high enough to drive an Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk in tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. However, tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storms as well as embedded within a squall line (if that ends up being the storm mode).

There are possible failure modes here, though. Forecast soundings from this evening’s models do show some capping trying to hold across the Charleston metro with an inversion a few thousand feet up and dry air entrainment trying to put a damper on an even more unstable environment. This could act as a governor on a more substantially widespread severe threat. We can’t bank on this, though, especially as wind shear remains strong enough to keep thunderstorm updrafts healthy.

Bottom line: Be ready for possible watches and warnings tomorrow. Keep weather radios in the alerting position and phones charged. Know what you’ll do if a warning is issued for your area. If you live in a mobile home, be thinking carefully about where you’ll go if severe weather threatens. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and mobile homes can be a tragic mix. A site-built structure will give you more protection in situations like these.

With any luck, we’ll see another round of storms fizzle out as it reaches Charleston. But if that doesn’t happen, you’ll be glad you were prepared.