We’ve got another nice-looking day of weather coming up for Sunday. We start the day a little warmer than we did Saturday — lows generally around 60° away from the locally warmer coast — but it’ll still feel nice and fall-like to start the day. High temperatures will head up into the mid-80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies; southwesterly winds will bring a little more in the way of humidity into the picture as well, but dewpoints in the mid-60s will still feel alright.
Sunday marks the beginning of a brief warming trend that’ll see us head into the upper 80s on Monday ahead of another cold front. That front should pass with minimal fanfare, though a shower or two can’t be totally ruled out Monday evening. This will set us up for a nice day of weather on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s expected.
We’ve got one more hot day in store for Thursday before the weather takes a turn for the fantastic for Friday and the weekend. Compressional heating ahead of a cold front will drive highs into the mid-90s for Thursday afternoon, perhaps approaching the record high of 96° set in 1990 at the airport. Downtown could very well tie or break the record high of 92° set in 1925, too. Mix in a little bit of humidity and it’ll feel closer to the upper 90s (though heat indices should stay south of 100° as the deep-layer dry air helps to mix out dewpoints to the mid-60s). There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening hours as the front passes by, but don’t expect anything too heinous as there’s still plenty of dry air to overcome for much in the way of active weather.
Tuesday will kick off a period of quiet and warming weather as expansive high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the region from the west. This’ll put the lid on much in the way of cloud cover, much less thunderstorm activity, allowing temperatures to approach 90° in the afternoon. Humidity won’t be terribly heinous, but will be enough to push the heat index to around 92° or so. Temperatures, especially highs, will run several degrees above normal through Thursday (which could approach the mid-90s) before a trough digs in to our north and drives a cold front through, which will make for a rather pleasant Friday and weekend of weather. (Not that I’m counting down or anything.)
A coastal trough will bring our first mentionable shower and storm chances in a few days for Sunday as a few showers and thunderstorms could drift ashore from time to time. While some of the high-resolution guidance has been awfully aggressive about rainfall amounts and how far inland measurable rain gets, generally expect the best chance for any showers toward the coast. An isolated downpour can’t be ruled out particularly if deeper moisture can make it ashore. With all that said, the rain chances are far from substantial enough for canceling any outdoor plans — just keep an eye out tomorrow in the unlikely event a storm approaches.
Temperatures will continue to run right around normal for this point in the year. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s across much of the metro (low 70s at the beaches) before temperatures head up to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints are forecast to approach 70° in the afternoon, and that’ll yield heat indices in the low 90s at peak heating.
We’ll see similar conditions on Monday before a ridge of high pressure asserts control at the surface and aloft. We’ve got a few hot days in store next week, with air temperatures in the low 90s possible mid-week as we reach the autumnal equinox and Fall begins. A dry front will usher in a shot of cooler and drier air just in time for the weekend, though. NWS’s opening bid for next Saturday: Low 66°, high 81°, mostly sunny skies, dewpoints in the low 60s. (Can we fast-forward?)
We’ve got a really nice weather day coming up for Thursday. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the coast (where the warmer water temperatures will keep lows above 70°). Temperatures will head into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies with a northeasterly breeze keeping things feeling seasonable. Meanwhile, dewpoints will mix out to around 60°, making for a very comfortable afternoon. All in all, it should be a really nice day to get out and about a bit as you can — I’d certainly recommend it.
Pleasant weather will continue for Friday into the weekend, too. A coastal trough could help get a shower or two toward the area on Saturday and Sunday, but otherwise, expect rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Ready for a break in the humidity? If so — as I suspect most of you are — it begins on Tuesday as drier air filters into the area throughout the day. We’ll see dewpoints fall from the low 70s to start the day to the mid-60s by sundown. High temperatures will still top out in the upper 80s, and it’ll still feel a little more like 90-91°, but overall, it’ll start to feel a lot better. There’s a small chance for a few showers to fire near the coast in the late afternoon, but the vast majority of us look to stay rain-free under partly cloudy skies.
It gets better from here, too: Wednesday morning will feel positively refreshing with dewpoints in the low 60s and air temperatures in the mid-60s away from the coast. It’ll also be the first day with zeroed-out rain chances all month. Should be an excellent day for an outdoor lunch or an evening walk. (Why not both?)
Rain chances within onshore flow creep up a bit starting Thursday as a coastal trough forms, but temperatures will remain a little more seasonable — not quite fall, but not quite blazing summer, either, as highs top out in the low 80s after morning lows in the upper 60s.
Expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday as moisture continues to pump into the area from the Gulf and beyond. We may see some pre-sunrise showers and storms in the area to start the day, but the greater probability of precipitation will arrive in the afternoon as the seabreeze begins trekking inland and thunderstorms get rolling. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns for any thunderstorm that develops. Once again, don’t expect it to rain all day at any one location — just be ready to move outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.
Given the scattered cloud cover, expect temperatures to head into the upper 80s in the afternoon. Mix in the humidity, though, and it’ll feel closer to 100-102°. Given just how much rain has fallen in the last few days, too, grassy areas without much tree cover may be especially heinous.
Elevated rain chances continue for Monday, but we will start to see a bit calmer weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday before a front stalls out nearby Thursday, which will bring some scattered rain chances back into the picture — though right now, it looks nothing like we’ve been experiencing recently.
We transition back to a more active pattern beginning Thursday as a front gets through and stalls out nearby while the upper-air configuration aims a steady stream of moisture and disturbances at us for a few days. While it looks like we start the day mostly dry, expect showers and storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will be locally heavy at times, with the potential for isolated bouts of freshwater flooding. The increase in cloud cover and shower activity will help limit highs to the mid-80s, some 10° cooler than we’ve experienced the past couple days.
Tides will begin running well into flood stage in Charleston Harbor around the evening high tides beginning Thursday. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast Thursday evening around the 7:22 PM high tide, and this should be enough to close a few roads downtown regardless of any rain. If it rains heavily, of course, this will certainly lead to a more widespread flooding event, so we’ll be watching downtown closely on Thursday and over the next few evenings in general.
Rain chances continue to head up Friday into the weekend as precipitable water values surge well past 2″. The risk for flooding will increase accordingly across the area, and mixing in the higher tides, we could be in for a busy few days downtown. Stay tuned to forecast updates as we close out the work week and head into the weekend.
Labor Day looks to feature an uptick in shower and storm coverage when compared to Sunday’s relatively quiet weather, but it still doesn’t look like a situation where outdoor plans will be totally washed out. After a little drier air worked its way into the area for Sunday, more moisture will move back in from the southwest for Monday. We could start the day with some showers and storms advancing northeastward across the area with some brief downpours embedded. Then, the seabreeze should kick in during the afternoon and help develop more showers and thunderstorms, which will progress inland with time. Heavy rain is the main concern from any thunderstorms; with precipitable water values over 2″, there will be a risk for flooding in a few spots where heavy rain repeats on itself. Of course, lightning will be a concern as well — as always, remember that if you’re hearing thunder, you’re in the strike zone. When thunder roars, go indoors!
Like the last few mornings, we’ll start in the low-to-mid 70s (warmer near the coast) and head toward the mid-80s in the afternoon outside of any showers and thunderstorms that develop. Mix in the humidity and it’ll feel closer to some very muggy mid-90s.
Bottom line: It won’t rain all day, but you’ll want to keep an eye to the sky in case conditions begin to head downhill. Be flexible with your outdoor plans and have a solid plan B in your back pocket.
Sunday’s forecast is essentially a matter of highlighting today’s weather, hitting Cmd+C, then Cmd+V (or Ctrl if you’re on Windows or Linux). Onshore flow will continue with the risk for scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Better rain chances will be found at the coast in the morning before transitioning inland with the seabreeze in the afternoon. Precipitable water values will remain at or above 2″, which will promote the risk for isolated downpours and perhaps flooding concerns if heavy rain ends up repeating over the same area. The diffuse stationary front which has been plaguing our surface pattern for the better part of a week now will wobble a little further southwest for Sunday, which should keep the more widespread rainfall in Georgia. Even still, though, stay flexible with your outdoor plans and be ready to move them inside quickly if storms approach.
Temperatures will once again follow today’s trend: lows in the low-to-mid-70s to start the day, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 80s before showers and thunderstorms set in. Heat indices will run in the mid-90s with the continued summer-esque humidity in place.
This pattern looks to continue into Labor Day and beyond. Aloft, ridging remains firmly in place over the next several days as an upper low cuts off over the Midwest. In the tropics, Tropical Storm Earl, which was named last night, will recurve well away from the US before it becomes a threat to land, while Danielle remains very far out in the Atlantic, an issue for shipping traffic and fish.
