Drier air moves into the area for Friday, yielding mostly sunny skies and a rain-free day. We start the day in the mid-70s before highs head to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Drier air mixing down from aloft will temper dewpoints somewhat, and this will help to keep heat indices from getting too far out of hand. Still, feels-like temperatures will top out in the mid-to-upper 90s. So, while it’s not going to be cool outside, it’s also not going to feel like it’s 110°. (Take the wins where you can get them.)
Scattered storms head back into the forecast starting Saturday afternoon as a front stalls out nearby and waves of low pressure move along it. Surface dewpoints will head back into the mid-70s, and this will yield heat indices over 100° Saturday afternoon before storms fire. Still, coverage should be scattered at most with ridging aloft creating a bit of capping.
Sunday will run a tad cooler (air temperature-wise, anyway) as surface winds turn more onshore. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90° in the afternoon, but heat indices will run around 100°. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms will be embedded within this onshore flow, and will be coming ashore from time to time, but by no means is it a washout as coverage should once again generally be in the scattered category. So, while it’s not the perfect setup for the last weekend before school starts, it won’t be the worst you’ve ever seen, either.
On and off showers and thunderstorms will continue for Thursday as a front remains stalled to our west and deep moisture resides over the area. We start the day in the mid-70s before highs top out around 90° before showers and thunderstorms fire. Once again, storms could pack heavy downpours that could lead to some flooding in a few spots, so be alert to quickly-changing conditions.
Standard August heat and humidity continues for Friday and the weekend, with some storms interspersed in as well. Friday could turn particularly active as a disturbance ripples through aloft and interacts with a nearby stalled front. We start the day in the upper 70s to around 80° before warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Mid-70s dewpoints will send heat indices into the 105-110° range once again. From there, we should see numerous thunderstorms begin to develop heading into the evening hours as the aforementioned disturbance approaches along with some seabreeze forcing. A few of these storms could be on the strong side with strong and even damaging wind gusts possible, so keep an ear out for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and be ready to head indoors at a moment’s notice.
We’re back into a more typical summertime pattern over the weekend with highs in the mid-90s and lows in the mid-to-upper 70s each morning, especially on Sunday. Heat indices will once again prove to be an issue, with mid-70s dewpoints combining with the mid-90s heat to produce feels-like temperatures around 105-110° once again. Absent any large-scale features to help organize thunderstorms, we should see scattered storms Saturday afternoon generally along and ahead of the seabreeze, while a little less coverage looks possible on Sunday. Not everyone will see storms, but if you do, be ready to move outdoor activities inside. Remember the old adage: When thunder roars, go indoors.
We’re back to heat and humidity for Thursday as the brief respite of drier air comes to a close. Lows will be rather balmy — upper 70s away from the coast, likely at 80° or above closer to the coast and in Downtown Charleston — as the high temperature heads to the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Expect heat indices 105-110°, with the warmer heat indices near the coast where the higher dewpoints will be found. NWS notes a heat advisory might be needed; will keep an eye on that.
A few thunderstorms will be possible during the day Thursday as a disturbance moves by to the north. A couple storms could be on the strong side with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Not everyone will see storms, though.
Our recent dry respite is about to come to an end as disturbances aloft interact with a surface front to keep things unsettled for a few days. The greatest coverage of storms will be on Friday as the most vigorous disturbance moves on by with the front sinking into the area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, and this will have the effect of suppressing highs into the mid-80s. Instability should be fairly weak, and the severe weather threat is low, but some heavy downpours will be possible which could lead to some areas of flooding.
Thursday should be generally quiet across the metro area for the vast majority of the day as dry air characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s — about as good as it gets at this point in the year — hang around for one more day. Expect the day to start in the low 70s once again with highs warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as a disturbance approaches, with a slight chance of showers after sunset, but again, the vast majority if not all of us get Thursday in rain-free.
Heat indices head back into the danger zone for Friday and the weekend as an uptick in moisture within onshore flow sends dewpoints up into the mid-to-upper 70s. This will also help in bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ashore across the area, perhaps as early as the morning, pressing inland with time with the seabreeze as the day goes on, much like Thursday. We’ll see a similar setup on Saturday, while Sunday should feature a more standard afternoon/evening thunderstorm configuration. The good news is that rain will not hang out terribly long in any one location, and should represent nothing more than a brief inconvenience.
Highs on Friday top out around 90° and in the low 90s on Saturday, while air temperatures warm into the mid-90s on Sunday. Heat indices will head above 105° each afternoon thanks to the aforementioned tropical air. Sunday could feature heat indices approaching 110°, which could lead to a heat advisory. Be cautious if you are out and about during the heat of the afternoons over the next few days!
Standard late-July weather continues for Thursday. We’ll see primarily partly cloudy skies across the area with highs topping out in the low 90s ahead of the seabreeze. Heat indices should top out around 103° or so, with some locally higher values closer to the coast possible for a brief time as the seabreeze moves inland. Said seabreeze should be responsible for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, moving inland with time. Some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest storms, but they shouldn’t last terribly long at any one location.
We have one more really hot day on Friday, with heat indices well in excess of 105° expected one more time in the afternoon. A few 110° readings won’t be ruled out, either, and it’s possible another Heat Advisory will be needed as air temperatures head into the upper 90s.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will again figure into the forecast, and one or two of them could produce damaging downburst winds. There is a risk for more organized severe weather moving down the Savannah River Friday night. The degree to which we experience this will be largely determined by the position of the subtropical ridge, which should retrograde a little more westward by tomorrow evening, keeping the main threat to our southwest. We’ll watch it, though.
Heading into Saturday and Sunday, troughing combined with a weak front stalling out nearby will keep afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances in vogue. Temperatures won’t be quite as scorching as we’ve seen, though, with highs topping out only in the low 90s thanks to the lower heights aloft. This is closer to normal for this point in the year. Heat indices, however, will still run above 100° each afternoon, and could make a run for 105° on Saturday. Stay cool if you’re spending time outdoors, and be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms threaten.
Thursday is going to be another hot day across the area. Expect to start the day just barely below 80° inland and likely a couple degrees above it closer to the coast. We’ll warm back into the mid-90s during the day, and with dewpoints not mixing out quite as much — expect them to hang around in the mid-70s — we should see heat indices peak around 110° or so in the afternoon. This is certainly well into the danger zone for heat illness, so please do take it easy if you must be outside. There’s no Heat Advisory as of this writing, but don’t be surprised if one is issued by morning.
Attention then turns to the potential for showers and thunderstorms to move into the area in the afternoon and evening courtesy of a disturbance rounding a retreating ridge of high pressure. Most of these storms should be efficient rainfall and lightning producers, and a few of these storms could be on the strong side with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Hail can’t be ruled out, either. Stay alert to rapidly changing conditions as we get into tomorrow afternoon and evening, and don’t be surprised if there are evening commute impacts.
Fortunately, wildfire smoke will play much less of a role in Thursday’s weather as it continues to disperse southward.
