Here comes real summer: Humidity begins to increase Friday as winds go more southerly at the surface, and will continue to build heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday top out in the mid-90s once again, and with dewpoints just shy of 70°, expect heat indices to approach 100° in the afternoon. We could see a shower or storm in the afternoon to evening hours along the seabreeze (and possibly as a result of a decaying convective complex headed toward the Carolinas), but most of us should stay dry.
Similar weather is on tap for Saturday, but with dewpoints a few clicks higher, expect heat indices to top out around 102° or so. Once again, we could see a shower or storm in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us should get away with the day rain-free.
By Sunday, dewpoints will top out in the mid-70s, and this combined with solid mid-90s temperatures could drive heat indices near 110°, which is the Heat Advisory threshold after July 1. A stray shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but the odds favor dry weather for now. We’ll want to keep an eye on potential thunderstorm complexes rounding a ridge of high pressure that’ll be making gradual eastward progress toward the area, so stay tuned to forecast updates as these are hard to catch beyond a day or so.
Thursday will be another active weather day across the region as a warm front draped across SC interacts with low pressure aloft to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, with damaging wind gusts the main concern, though some hail can’t be ruled out either. Highs on Thursday top out in the mid-80s before storms get rolling once more. It won’t rain all day in any one spot, but when it does, it could be quite heavy. Keep rain gear handy, allow additional travel time, and keep an ear out for flood advisories as well.
A stretch of quieter weather begins Friday and lasts through the weekend, in what is a bit of a role reversal for 2023. A few showers could be around the area Friday morning, but those will get out of here by mid-morning and we should stay largely quiet for the rest of the day. Highs head to around 90° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.
Saturday and Sunday will both be pretty solid mid-June days: we’ll start each day in the low 70s and top out in the low 90s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or storm may be possible well inland — one can never totally rule that out especially with a trough still hanging around — but otherwise, it’s looking good, and I hope you can take advantage.
Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is expected Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening as daytime heating and some upper-air help kicks in, though a shower or storm will be possible for much of the day. Before storms fire, expect to start the day in the upper 60s, warming to the mid-80s under a mix of sun and clouds. Dewpoints around 70° will yield heat indices around 90°.
The risk for severe weather is looking a little lower than it did on Wednesday, with the best risk displaced to the south, but a storm with a damaging wind gust or two and some hail can’t totally be ruled out.
Quieter weather continues as we head into Friday and Saturday, with the risk for thunderstorms returning Sunday afternoon and evening as another front gets close to the area.
Our string of stormy afternoons looks to continue on Thursday as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Showers could fire as early as mid-morning, but the better chance of thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon and evening hours as we get some daytime heating in place. Much like the past two days, a few storms could produce gusty winds and hail, so be on the lookout for quickly changing weather conditions and be ready to move indoors quickly if storms approach.
With the front in the area, highs will top out somewhat lower than Wednesday’s 92° — expect generally mid-80s across the region before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. We could run a little warmer — or cooler — depending on how fast the front gets south of here. (That could also modulate our thunderstorm chances a bit, too.)
Finally, there are no air quality concerns with the ongoing wildfire smoke that is being transported south into the eastern United States from Quebec, though we will continue to see a milky haze in the sky, which should persist into the weekend.
This weekend’s weather looks closer to what we wish we had last weekend. Expect highs to run generally in the mid-80s on Friday and Saturday. A cold front pushes through later Saturday, and this will drive highs a little cooler on Sunday as a result — generally topping out in the low 80s. We’ll start each day squarely in the mid-60s. Overall, these temperatures are below normal for the start of June.
This might be one of the quieter weekends we’ve had rain-wise this far this year. A stray shower or storm is possible Friday afternoon and evening, with lower chances Saturday and Sunday. We’ll see how this evolves, but this might be as close as we’ve gotten to a rain-free forecast for a weekend since early February! Stay tuned.
If you’re looking for a more authentic June feel, highs in the upper 80s look to return to the weather picture — at least briefly — by the middle of next week.
Thursday’s forecast is quiet and a little cool for this point in the year as we kick off climatological summer on June 1. Temperatures will generally run a couple degrees below normal on Thursday as cloud cover and a northeast breeze helps to keep things a little on the “cool” side. (Quotes around “cool” because it’ll still be warm and a little muggy, too.) As is customary for June, a shower can’t be totally discounted within this regime, but the vast majority of us get the day in rain-free.
We start to see a shift toward more unsettled weather beginning Thursday as low pressure begins to organize offshore, sending more moisture and some windy conditions our way. We start the day around 60° as high pressure remains wedged in place. We’ll get a fair bit of the day in rain-free as highs top out around 80° in the afternoon. As low pressure begins to organize offshore later Thursday, we’ll start to see a risk for a few evening showers.
