Not too much to write home about in the weather department for the rest of the work week — just more in the way of heat, humidity, and a slight uptick in showers and storms as we head toward Friday.
Air temperature-wise, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the rest of the work week with highs topping out in the mid-90s. However, drier mid-level air will mix down to the surface during the heat of the day, and this will help keep heat indices around 100-101°. (Not great, but it could be worse.) The aforementioned dry mid-levels should keep most, if not all, shower and storm activity at bay, though you can never truly rule any stray shower or storm out during this point of the year.
Moisture starts to return Thursday, and this manifests itself with a little higher heat index in the afternoon — approaching 105° — and a slightly better (but still low) chance of seabreeze thunderstorms. Friday could see a little better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms as heat indices top out over 105° at peak heating. (Remember, heat advisory criteria for July 1 and beyond is 110° for two hours.) Overall, there’s nothing in this forecast that’s terribly out of bounds for this point in the year — just mind the heat and be ready to head inside if a thunderstorm gets close.
Tuesday’s forecast looks relatively benign across the area as partly cloudy skies dominate thanks to increasingly drier air aloft. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the coast before highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should top out in the low 100s with low-70s dewpoints across the area. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out along the seabreeze, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.
We’ll continue this hot stretch of weather as we get into Wednesday and through the rest of the work week. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 90s each afternoon with heat indices peaking around 105-110° each day in many spots, with perhaps even higher heat indices closer to the coast where the higher-dewpoint air will be found. Lows won’t offer much in the way of relief — generally expect just upper 70s across much of the metro, with temperatures not going below 80° downtown and at the beaches over the next few days. With drier air aloft, it’ll be hard to get much in the way of thunderstorms to fire along the pinned seabreeze, and they likely won’t be deep enough to really overturn the atmosphere much, possibly leaving even muggier conditions behind them.
Wildfire smoke will once again cloud the sky a little bit on Wednesday, but not quite to the degree that we saw on Tuesday. The air quality forecast is on the lower side of code yellow for Wednesday, but that seems to be primarily due to ozone. As always, we’ll keep an eye on this in case smoke mixes down a little more than expected.
Troughing digs back in across the area over the weekend, which will send temperatures downward and bring rain chances upward, breaking this mini-heat wave. (You either get the heat or storms this time of year — not really a third option!)
We begin a rather hot stretch of weather — yes, even warmer than we’ve been — starting Tuesday as ridging builds aloft. Downslope flow from the northwest will act to warm the air as it sinks as well as help to keep the seabreeze pinned closer to the coast, which will help drive air temperatures well into the mid-to-upper 90s across the area after an already warm start in the upper 70s to around 80° at the coast. Mix in humidity and you’ll find heat indices across the area ranging from about 105-110° during the height of the afternoon. We’ll be in this heat index “danger zone” for a few days, so be sure to take it easy if you have to be outdoors during this time, and get lots and lots of water.
As the ridge builds aloft, this will also help to put a lid on afternoon thunderstorms for the most part; a shower or storm can’t be totally ruled out, but don’t count on one for any sort of heat relief.
Finally, Canadian wildfire smoke will add a milky haze to the overall sky composition. Upstream observations suggest that there could be some minor air quality impacts, but so far no major issues are anticipated. Stay tuned, though.
Another day or two of quiet weather is expected as deep-layer dry air remains in place over our part of the world, suppressing thunderstorm development and keeping temperatures a little more in check. Wednesday looks pretty good by July standards, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s expected. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s should yield a peak heat index around 99°, generally after the seabreeze moves by. Thursday will run a degree or two warmer with a little bit more in the way of cloud cover as moisture starts to tick up somewhat. Peak heat indices should run around 100° during the mid-afternoon hours.
We get back to a more traditional July pattern of afternoon thunderstorms on Friday as more humid air begins to work back into the area. We start the day in the upper 70s and top out in the mid-90s before scattered thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and evening hours along the seabreeze. Heat indices could top out above 105°. We’ll keep this going into the weekend, too, with the potential for advisory-level warmth (heat index 110°+ for two hours) and scattered thunderstorms as the main weather concerns for outdoor activities.
Somewhat drier air (aloft, anyway) moving into the area Tuesday will put an end to the soggy weather for a few days, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm does remain possible. We start the day in the low 70s — the coolest start to a day since June 28 — before warming into the low 90s in the afternoon. While the drier air will provide for generally partly cloudy skies amidst a somewhat brilliant blue sky, it’ll still be fairly humid at the surface; expect heat indices to peak around 100° in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves by. All in all, though, we should have plenty of sun to help sop up this latest round of heavy rain.
The rest of the work week will remain rather unsettled as very humid air remains in place across the area and impulses continue to ripple aloft.
Hot and humid conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with abatement coming in the form of seabreeze showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Temperatures will generally run in the mid-90s on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, then backing down a little to the low 90s on Friday. Heat indices will continue to run above 105° each afternoon through at least Thursday due to the combination of warm air temperatures and mid-70s dewpoints.
Thunderstorms each afternoon will be capable of very heavy rain in a short period — there were reports of nearly 3” in an hour in a few spots on Tuesday — and excessive lightning. Damaging wind gusts will be possible in the strongest storms, though a widespread severe weather event is not expected.
Finally, we’ll continue to deal with the potential for coastal flooding with the late high tides. High tide on Wednesday is at 10:48 PM; salt water flooding will generally be possible an hour or two on either side of high tide.
The 90s stick around for the rest of the week with quite a bit of sunshine as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the area. Downslope winds will mix dewpoints out into the 60s each day, so it won’t be as humid as it could be in late June. The heat index on Wednesday, in fact, should only top out a degree or two warmer than the high. Air temperatures will top out again in the mid-90s on Thursday, but a little more humidity will make it feel closer to 97-98°. By Friday, winds will go more southerly and dewpoints will stay more steady in the low 70s, which should yield heat indices around 100°. Heat will continue to accelerate heading into the weekend, with the first Heat Advisories of the season possible as we bring in July. Hydrate regularly and be sure to use sunscreen if you’re spending time outside, especially during the peak of the afternoon.
A cold front will move through and stall out nearby on Tuesday, allowing drier air to mix into the area. This will largely suppress cloud cover and will help drive temperatures to the mid-90s in the afternoon; fortunately, the drier air mixing in will also keep dewpoints reasonably in check, so heat indices will only top out around 96°-98° or so.
A few thunderstorms will still be possible very early Tuesday morning, but widespread severe weather does not look to be an issue. Still, there’s a small chance you could be woken up overnight, especially the further north you go.
The forecast for the rest of the work week will remain on the wet side especially Wednesday and Thursday before the upper low finally starts to dislodge from the blocking pattern on Friday. Until that happens, though, showers and thunderstorms will be possible at pretty much any point in the day, though the afternoons and evenings will be the favored time for storms given daytime heating. We’ll start each day in the low 70s before warming into the mid-80s before thunderstorms put a damper on temperatures. Friday does look a little less soggy with a little more in the way of scattered vs. numerous storms, and that pattern should continue to improve heading into the weekend. Stay tuned for updates as things continue to evolve.
