We have a chilly night ahead as clearing skies and light winds allow for good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow morning lows on Tuesday to reach freezing for the first time since January 22, when we started the day at a frigid 23°. It won’t be quite as cold — freezing temperatures in the metro would be relatively short-lived — but with some light wind in the morning, it’ll feel more like the upper 20s as we get back to regular order after Washington’s Birthday. There will be plenty of sunshine, though, and that’ll help counteract some cooler air continuing to filter into the area, allowing highs to top out in the low 60s once again.
We’ve got quiet weather for the rest of the work week as high pressure remains in control through Friday. Wednesday will bring another round of nearly uninterrupted sunshine, but will also represent the coldest start to a day for the rest of the week with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s. The sun will help warm us up quite nicely into the mid-60s in the afternoon, a couple clicks above normal for Valentine’s Day.
We turn even warmer on Thursday, albeit with a little bit more in the way of clouds around. Thursday starts in the low 40s and warms to around 70° in the afternoon. A dry cold front will blunt the warming trend on Friday. We start the day in the upper 40s thanks to a little more cloud cover blanketing the area, but highs will be limited to the upper 60s to around 70° under mostly cloudy skies. Still, it should be a nice day.
The next rain chance arrives Saturday as low pressure moving toward the mid-Atlantic states drags a decidedly more wet cold front through the area. High pressure builds in behind it for Sunday, which will briefly cool us off before temperatures rebound to around and slightly above normal values by next Tuesday.
The storm system that’s soaked us on Monday will lift away from the area on Tuesday, clearing us out but also producing a period of gusty winds overnight as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Watch for gusts 30-35 MPH at times, especially on bridges and overpasses, that will affect the area through the morning commute. We should see gusts calm down gradually as the day goes on, thankfully. Clouds will depart and temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-60s after an upper 40s start, yielding a pleasant and seasonable mid-February day.
We’re just about done with the chillier weather for a few days, but first, Wednesday awaits. Lows on Wednesday should flirt with freezing, and continued breezy northerly winds will help it feel like the mid-20s. You’ll want to dress in layers to start, though you should be able to shed a layer or two later in the day as temperatures approach 60° and winds, mercifully, continue to die down.
There is a risk for some minor coastal flooding with the 5:33am high tide, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the forecast of 7.3-7.5′ revised downward given the past two mornings have come in lower than expected. (Watch this be the one time the tide does exactly what the evening blog post says it will.) In any event, any flooding issues should be resolved before the bulk of the commute, but if you are an early commuter and downtown is in your plans, keep an eye out for possible flooded or closed roads.
Showers have ended and cloud cover will diminish overnight, yielding a sunny Tuesday — in stark contrast to the dreariness that was Monday. However, high pressure trying to build in from the west will help to keep the gradient pinched as low pressure remains offshore, keeping north to northeast winds elevated throughout the day. Temperatures will start in the upper 30s, but the wind chill will make it feel more like 30°, so dress appropriately in the morning. We’ll warm only to the mid-to-upper 50s despite the sunshine, too.
The other issue for Tuesday will be the risk for some minor to moderate coastal flooding very early Tuesday morning. High tide around 4:32am is forecast to reach between 7.5-7.7′. While we fell just short of coastal flood criteria Monday morning, it certainly seems more likely that we’ll achieve flood stage on Tuesday. So, if you have early travels that take you downtown, be ready to reroute around flooded roads.
Generally quiet weather continues for the balance of the work week. The exception will be Wednesday morning, when a little bit of energy aloft traverses the area and squeezes out some shower activity. Rain gauges won’t catch much precipitation at all, and it should be out of here by afternoon. Clouds could hang around, though, and some cooler air blowing in behind the disturbance will keep highs pinned to the mid-50s Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure — and, as a result, sunshine — returns to close out the work week. Expect mostly sunny skies on Thursday. After a seasonably cool start in the upper 30s, highs will warm to the mid-60s in the afternoon. Friday is still looking good, too, with low 40s yielding to upper 60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, so if we get stuck in a temporal loop, at least the weather will be nice.
Peeking ahead at the weekend, we see a quiet and seasonably warm Saturday but an increasingly unsettled Sunday as another storm system approaches the area. This storm system peaks overnight Sunday into Monday with decent rainfall expected. Rain chances diminish heading into next Tuesday, with a little bit of a chill in the air as well.
Expect another seasonally-appropriate day on Tuesday, though we will start out a little cooler than we did on Monday. Lows should bottom out in the mid-30s, and with a little wind still blowing, it’ll feel a few degrees cooler. Temperatures should head to the low-to-mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift southerly and pick up a bit in the afternoon ahead of a weak low, nudging dewpoints up a few degrees but certainly nothing outrageous.
The warming trend continues Wednesday as a warm front lifts north of the area. Temperatures start in the mid-to-upper 50s owing to cloud cover blanketing us for much of the night. Once the warm front shifts ashore and winds go southeasterly, temperatures will respond further and head to the mid-70s. It’ll be kind of muggy, too, with dewpoints in the mid-60s expected behind the warm front. Scattered showers will remain possible throughout a fair bit of the day, though we should see more sun than we did Tuesday (not hard to do, tbh).
At a minimum, we’ll get the first part of Thursday in rain-free, if not the vast majority of it, before a front approaches the area and reintroduces shower and storm chances for Friday. Temperatures will peak Thursday, with lows in the low 60s and highs topping out around the mid-to-upper 70s. There will be a chance for a few showers late, but most of us should stay out of that until Friday, when shower coverage looks to increase with some thunder possible as well. Severe weather currently doesn’t appear to be a concern, though, as wind fields are largely unimpressive and instability appears meager. Temperatures on Friday will be tamped down a little by the shower activity, “only” reaching 75° after starting in the low 60s once again. We stay in the 70s on Saturday, but a second, stronger front will restore order to temperature chaos on Sunday, and by Monday, expect temperatures near normal with much more sunshine.
After a day in which we warmed up some 14° compared to Sunday with a high of 60° at the airport, the warming trend continues for Tuesday and beyond as surface high pressure continues to move offshore. Temperatures on Tuesday start in the low-to-mid-40s — roughly where we were for a high on Sunday — and warm into the mid-60s in the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. A few showers will be possible at times, but any rain will be generally light. Still, y’all know how traffic can get even with the lightest of rain, so prepare accordingly.
A rather cold day awaits on Wednesday despite full sunshine throughout the day as chilly high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures should fall to the upper 20s in the metro area early Wednesday morning as cold air blows in. Wind chills will bottom out in the low 20s, so be sure to dress accordingly as you head out to work or school. Afternoon highs will struggle to the mid-40s as cold air continues to settle into the area throughout the day. Despite light rain during the day Tuesday, black ice doesn’t look like it will be a factor given that we’ll be drying out very quickly tonight as dewpoints plummet into the 20s.
We’ll dip a little further into the 20s overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Temperatures should reach freezing by late evening, and should stay there through sunrise, with roughly an 8-10 hour period of freezing temperatures a decent possibility. It’ll be a good idea to keep a faucet on a drip, make sure pets are in a warm place, and ensure plants are protected. The good news is that the freeze will quickly give way to warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon, with highs expected to peak around 60°. A few showers will be possible in the late afternoon into the evening hours, but very little overall rainfall is expected.
Friday will be the only day in the next few that’ll start above freezing; expect lows in the low 40s in the morning, followed by highs in the low 60s in the afternoon. A cold front will advance through the area roughly midday or so, but the coldest air will be delayed a little bit. Still, expect clouds to scour out as drier air moves in.
