After a couple chilly days post-storm, temperatures will trend back up in a big way for Wednesday as high pressure slips southward, sending winds in a more westerly direction. After just topping out at 54° today, look for highs in the mid-60s on Wednesday with a mix of clouds and sun as a coastal trough lingers nearby. The mid-60s continue into Thursday ahead of a cold front which could bring us a few showers late in the day. By Friday, the front will have cleared and temperatures will once again run in the mid-50s as cooler high pressure builds in from the west.

Expect these cool temperatures to persist into Saturday before warming up big-time on Sunday ahead of a more potent front, which by Monday evening into Tuesday could bring us an even cooler airmass linked to strong high pressure building out of the Plains.

Coastal flooding will once again be an issue with Wednesday morning’s high tide, predicted to peak around 7.5′ around the 10am hour. This will once again cause minor to moderate coastal flooding in parts of downtown Charleston and could close a few roads. Be ready to use alternate routes in case you encounter a flooded road.

2021 is going to close out on a very warm note for the Lowcountry. At the surface, subtropical high pressure will hold firm while the flow aloft continues in a zonal pattern, resulting in an inability to get any fronts through here until the first of the year.

We’ll have at least one or two more opportunities to break record highs before 2021 is all said and done. Wednesday should feature a little less cloud cover, allowing temperatures to challenge the record high of 79° set in 2015. Despite the possibility of some scattered showers Thursday as an upper disturbance ripples by, temperatures should still warm into the upper 70s. (This will fall short of the record of 82°, though, set in 2015.) Partly to mostly cloudy skies return Friday with highs in the upper 70s once again getting close to the record of 78° set in 1996. Indeed, it would be a fitting end to a year that started with a record high — 80° on New Year’s Day.

Dry weather continues as we close out the last full work week of 2021, with a warming trend into the mid-70s to boot as high pressure remains in control with ridging aloft hanging on for a few more days. We’ll see an increase in cloud cover as moisture begins to work back into the area in the upper levels, but rain looks to hold off until a front arrives on Sunday. Otherwise, not too much to write home about in the near term. We’ll be keeping an eye on the potential for a storm system to bring some additional rain to the area early next week as a Gulf low spins up and moves eastward. Beyond that, model agreement is still far apart on the specifics, so we’ll just have to watch how trends evolve over the next few days. For now, though, enjoy the relatively quiet weather!

The first measurable rain in quite some time is expected heading into Wednesday through early afternoon as a cold front swings through. Don’t be surprised if you hear a little thunder, too, but no severe weather is expected. The rain will keep high temperatures pinned into the mid-60s. We could see up to an inch in some spots, which would be awfully helpful with the ongoing abnormally dry conditions and even some moderate drought in parts of the area.

We’ll dry out Thursday as high pressure builds back in, but we’ll stay cool with highs topping out in the low 60s. That cool spell won’t last long, though, as we shoot right back into the low 70s for Friday with showers a possibility in the afternoon.

Meteorological winter begins tomorrow, running from December 1 through February 28, 2022. It sure won’t feel like it, though: temperatures will warm to near 70° on Wednesday, and then peek into the low to mid-70s on Thursday and Friday. We’ll have some cloud cover associated with a weak disturbance aloft Wednesday, but other than that, expect quite a bit of sunshine over the next few days.

The only weather concern looks to be a small risk for minor coastal flooding beginning with Friday morning’s high tide as we head toward the new moon phase. So far, the NWS forecast has that tide peaking just shy of 7’, which is the minor coastal flooding criteria. Peeking a little further down the road, guidance indicates that Saturday morning’s high tide may scrape that 7’ threshold as well. So far, though, it certainly does not appear to be a repeat of the last new moon, which brought us top-15 tides during the first week of November.

Finally, we bid adieu to the 2021 hurricane season, which was another extremely busy season in terms of named storms (21). For the second consecutive year, the primary storm name list was exhausted — but we did not have to crack open the supplemental list, at least. Once again, our luck has held here — aside from the quickly-developing Tropical Storm Danny and the nocturnal tornado outbreak associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, it was another rather quiet season for the Lowcountry, and for that I am grateful.

After topping out at 72° today away from the cooler coastline, we’re back into the 70s for a couple more days before a cold front swings through for Friday, allowing high pressure to wedge into the area for the weekend. We’ll actually see a few clouds on Wednesday before an increase in cloud cover Thursday in response to the cold front approaching the area. There’s a tiny chance that we may see a shower or two, but the relative dearth of moisture should keep the vast majority of us rain-free. Cool high pressure builds back into the area on Friday, keeping high temperatures well into sweater weather territory in the low 60s in the afternoon. Overall, not a bad way to close out the last work week before Thanksgiving.

The rest of the work week will be on the mild side as high pressure slips offshore ahead of a cold front. Wednesday will start a little on the cloudy side, which will act to keep lows from falling too far below the mid-40s in most spots. The sun will come back in the afternoon and yield another pleasant day with highs in the mid-70s.

Thereafter, a cold front approaches the area Thursday into Friday, bringing some scattered showers to the area beginning Thursday afternoon. A thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out, either, but severe weather is not expected. Temperatures start in the mid-50s and top out in the mid-70s on Thursday. Friday starts even warmer, perhaps in the low 60s, before showers depart and cooler, drier air begins working into the area. Even still, expect highs in the mid-70s on Friday.

Don’t let the sweaters slip too far away — another cooldown is in the cards for the weekend with a series of reinforcing cold fronts into next week.

There is a small risk for some minor coastal flooding early Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise, this event appears to be finally in the books. This was a brutal stretch: we’ve had some degree of coastal flooding each day since November 3, with four consecutive days of major flooding between November 5-8. Three top-15 tides were set, including Sunday morning’s high tide at 8.51’ which was good for tenth highest on record.

After a couple days of 70s and sunshine, cold air damming will begin to ooze into the area on Wednesday, kicking up cloud cover and keeping temperatures down into the mid-60s. It’s the first really good sweater weather day of the year, and the last fully rain-free day until Sunday. Thereafter, a storm system will affect our area from Thursday into the weekend. The wedge will remain intact through the rest of the work week, keeping gusty northeasterly winds — which could get as strong as gale force over the waters on Friday — in the area and cloud cover in place. Overrunning moisture will help contribute to a few showers on Thursday with more coverage Friday depending on where low pressure develops offshore. This, in turn, will help keep temperatures suppressed at or below 60° for Thursday and Friday. The last time we had a high below 60° was April 2nd, when the high topped out at a balmy 53°.

Wednesday will be another pleasant weather day. We’re going to get off to a chilly start with lows in the 40s across the area away from the locally warmer coastline. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s, and it’ll feel good in the sun.

As we head into Thursday afternoon and evening, we will want to watch the risk for heavy rain with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but the forecast wind profiles are such that a tornado cannot be totally ruled out. We’ll need to see how much instability can develop — the less instability, the better. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

The upper-level low that will help to drive Thursday’s severe threat will linger into Friday, keeping clouds and perhaps a few showers in the forecast. Temperatures won’t top out much higher than 70° on Friday afternoon.

Good news, though: The weekend looks good with sweater weather on Saturday, and Halloween is very much game on with picture-perfect weather to close out October.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the work week ahead of a cold front swinging through on Friday. Highs look to return to the 80s for Wednesday and beyond, though just barely. Lows will be creeping up more noticeably; we’ll wake up to low 50s on Wednesday, near 60° on Thursday, and in the mid-60s on Friday.

We stay rain-free through Thursday, and it’s probable that you’ll stay dry on Friday, too, with just a little moisture available for the front to squeeze out a few isolated showers in the afternoon. Overall, our weather pattern remains relatively quiet heading into the weekend, but there’s no sign of another good shot of cold air just yet as the temperature trend continues to favor above-normal temperatures heading into next week. (It is nice to dry out a bit, though!)