After today came in cooler than expected thanks to some cloud cover (and even a few light showers), the heat should begin to really kick back in on Wednesday as we’ll see much more sunshine than we did today. The atmosphere remains dry and capped, and that will keep afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances at bay for one more day. 70s dewpoints return in earnest for Thursday, and that combined with a 97° air temperature will drive heat indices into the lower 100s in the afternoon. We’ll also start to see the standard slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday. A weak front will head south across the area late Thursday into Friday, taking the edge off the higher heat for Friday with highs topping out around 90°. We’ll keep a slight chance of seabreeze storms in the forecast to close out the week.
The rest of the work week will remain hot — though not to the degree that we observed today, with the first 98° reading at the airport since August of 2019 — with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm as a strong ridge remains firmly in place across the area. Heat indices could once again reach advisory criteria tomorrow with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm to cool things off. So it will go Thursday and Friday, too, though onshore flow behind a backdoor front will keep temperatures a little “cooler” on Thursday, topping out “only” in the low 90s. Bottom line: Stay geared up for hot weather for the foreseeable future. We’ve got a little break coming Sunday, but the heat will then just surge right back as we get into next week. (Such is summer.)
Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue with the evening high tides through Friday. Onshore flow should send tidal departures even higher on Wednesday evening, with moderate flooding expected with the 9:55 PM high tide. Expect scattered to potentially numerous road closures in downtown Charleston tomorrow evening as a result, though thankfully after the commute.
Everyone break out the fanny packs…the 90s are back! We’ll get back there tomorrow afternoon with an uptick in moisture as well; before thunderstorms develop along the seabreeze in the afternoon, we’ll see heat indices approach 100°. We could very well breach the century mark Thursday afternoon, too. Ever-so-slightly drier air might keep heat indices a little more in check on Friday based on this evening’s guidance, but we’ll see how that ultimately goes based on the positioning of a stalling front.
Wednesday and Thursday will both generally feature the standard round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, aided a bit by some upper-level help. We could even see some additional thunderstorms move into the area Wednesday evening as a disturbance moves by. A couple of Wednesday’s thunderstorms could be on the strong side, too, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns. Right now, Friday is looking a bit drier, but that will be governed by how far south high pressure can wedge into the area. Stay tuned for fine-tuning on that one.
As we head into the weekend, we could see another round of active weather on Saturday as another front heads into the area. This will be the best chance of rain for the next few days as high pressure builds back into the area on Sunday. Drier air moving in will make for a reasonably nice day on Sunday (though highs look to still top out around 90°), but more importantly, it increasingly looks to be a rain-free day, which is excellent news for the Spoleto finale.
After what was a rather pleasant day today, summer warmth returns to the weather picture beginning Tuesday. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s in the afternoon, with heat indices running in the low 90s. An isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out, but the majority of us get the day in rain-free.
Stop me if you thought today was Monday — yes, it is indeed Tuesday — which means we’re already getting into the midpoint of the work week. And as we begin June and meteorological summer, the weather will certainly cooperate with summer-like conditions. Expect warmer-than-normal temperatures to dominate into Friday, with highs in the low 90s expected each afternoon. Factor in humidity, and it’ll feel closer to the mid-90s, especially right after the seabreeze comes through.
We’ll see a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day as the aforementioned seabreeze moves inland, but the vast majority of us should stay rain free through Friday as these storms will be extremely hit-or-miss. We’ll start to see a little uptick in shower activity on Friday as a front approaches the area, but the better rain chances (for now) will be found Saturday morning as the front gets through.
We’ll also be keeping an eye on the tropics, where an area of disturbed weather (the former Hurricane Agatha in the eastern Pacific) could form into a tropical depression as it approaches western Florida later this week. It’s far too soon to know what this means in our neck of the woods, but this looks to be a decent rainstorm for at least some parts of Florida. Depending on the track, we could see some marine impacts and maybe even some tidal flooding over the weekend. The first name on the list for the 2022 season is Alex. I don’t think this is going to be a major issue for us (if it even becomes much of one at all), but will watch it all the same. Just about that time of year, after all.
We’re headed back to the 90s as we head back to work and, for the last week this year, school. We’ll see a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze on Tuesday, with chances starting near the coast around noon-ish, then migrating inland for the rest of the afternoon. Not everyone sees storms. Expect highs to top out in the upper 80s.
As drier air filters in aloft, we’ll have less cloud cover, less of a shot at afternoon thunderstorms, and thus better opportunities to reach the low 90s each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. A front will get closer to the area on Friday; compressional heating ahead of the front should send us back to the 90s in the afternoon but with a greater risk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Peeking toward the weekend, it appears the front is going to stall out and hang around. This, combined with an infusion of tropical moisture from the south, could keep the weekend somewhat unsettled. With the front by and high pressure wedging southward, though, we should run a few degrees cooler than we have been as of late (mid-80s as opposed to low 90s). We’ll keep a close eye on this as time goes on for fine-tuning.
In any event — stay cool and keep on watering for at least the next few days as moderate drought continues across the Lowcountry.
The forecast turns a touch quieter for a couple days as a front sags south across the area, capping the atmosphere off a bit and limiting shower and thunderstorm development. Expect partly cloudy skies for Wednesday and Thursday with highs topping out generally in the mid-80s. While you can never totally discount a shower or storm this time of year, strong capping on the atmosphere should prevent much in the way of storms.
Rain chances return on Friday as a surface cold front, aided by a trough of low pressure aloft, approach the area. We’ll see plenty of moisture streaming into the area thanks to the upper-air configuration, which should aid numerous showers and thunderstorms heading into Friday afternoon and evening. (Not exactly great timing for the Spoleto opener.) The atmosphere will be pretty juiced, too, allowing for heavy rainfall to be an issue in some spots. We’ll want to keep an eye out for flooding as a result. We do need the rain, but perhaps not all at once! With the rain and cloud cover in the area, expect high temperatures in the mid-80s after starting in the low to mid-70s.
No mincing words: Here comes the heat. Mostly sunny skies combined with high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring us a period of hot weather to close out the work week.
Wednesday will be the last day of the warm-but-not-horribly-humid weather. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the warmer coastline on our way to flirt with 90° once again in the afternoon. The saving grace will be dewpoints in the mid-50s at peak heating, which will help keep heat indices well in check.
Southerly winds, though, will begin to send warm and humid air into the area. Thursday should feature the hottest temperatures thus far this season, with highs in the mid-90s expected away from the coast. Heat indices will run into the upper 90s given the elevated humidity (though certainly not quite as bad as, say, July or August). Mostly sunny skies will persist, so don’t count on cloud cover — much less a thunderstorm — to cool things off briefly.
We should see similar, if not slightly cooler, temperatures for Friday — not that it is much consolation given the NWS forecast highs are topping out in the low 90s still. Skies will once again be mostly sunny and devoid of afternoon thunderstorms.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Saturday afternoon into next week as the ridge aloft breaks down a bit. We have a few days of scattered storm chances in the offing getting into next week along with cooler temperatures as a cold front moves across the area before stalling, so the good news is that this won’t last forever. For now, though, stay cool and keep on watering in the evenings.
We’ve got one more really good weather day in store for Wednesday before low pressure drifts westward toward the coast, bringing in periods of showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday, leaving some scattered shower activity around for Saturday as well. We could definitely use the rain, and it doesn’t look like there will be any severe weather coming along for the ride, either — a win-win situation considering our worsening drought situation. (We could still see a few thunderstorms, though, and lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous.)
Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday given continued northward winds and then rain-cooled air, especially as we get into Friday. Peeking ahead toward the weekend, though, we will begin to see temperatures rebound into the mid-to-upper 80s as winds go more southerly, with the 90s returning to the picture on Monday. Savor the cooler weather while we’ve got it, because we’ve got fewer and fewer days like this ahead until the fall.
Our warm start to May continues for the rest of the work week as Atlantic high pressure and ridging aloft build across the area. We should see our first 90° reading of the year on Thursday. This comes a few weeks earlier than we saw 90° for the first time last year, but overall, we touch 90° in the first week of May more often than not. We stay warm on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west, perhaps getting close to 90° once again.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will factor into the forecast each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze, with a pulse severe thunderstorm or two possible with damaging downburst winds and perhaps some large hail. Widespread severe weather is not expected, and I suspect that the best chances for a severe storm will be found where outflow boundaries and/or the seabreeze intersect, giving a little more oomph to thunderstorm updrafts.
We should see an uptick in shower and storm coverage on Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front gets a little closer; however, these storms will remain generally scattered. Keep an eye out for storms Friday evening and be ready to bring outdoor activities indoors quickly if lightning approaches. If you’re hearing thunder or seeing lightning strikes, you’re close enough to be struck!
The front will get into the area on Saturday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air moves in Sunday, gradually scouring out precipitation and cloud cover while bringing temperatures back down closer to early May normals (low 80s).
