It sure has been cool and occasionally rainy over the last few days! Today’s high only made it to 77° at the airport, which barring an unforecasted heating episode will be a new record low maximum temperature for the date. The previous record low max for June 14 was 78° set in 1939. This cool pattern is thanks to an upper low aloft and a wedge of high pressure at the surface. Moisture riding atop the wedge is keeping cloud cover and the occasional showers around, and this will continue for a couple more days before the pattern turns more summer-like by the end of the week.

Periods of heavy rain will continue for much of Monday before winding down in the evening. Once again, temperatures will run well below normal (upper 70s) thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooled air. While we’ll have less rain on Tuesday, we will have one more day of cool temperatures with continued cloud cover and northerly winds on the back side of a coastal low. Before it’s all said and done, another 1-3″ of rain may have fallen across the area in what has been a wet year — we have a 6.2″ surplus of rain at the airport.

As we get into mid-week, we’ll begin to see the upper low finally take leave of the area, allowing the surface low to go with it. Showers will continue to be in the forecast, but temperatures will moderate into the lower 80s. By the end of the week and into the weekend, expect temperatures to head back into the upper 80s and lower 90s with the typical afternoon thunderstorm regime we all know and love during summers in Charleston.

June in Charleston is typically characterized by afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the upper 80s, and this week will not disappoint in either department. We’re caught between Atlantic high pressure and the broad circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal, putting us within a corridor of deep moisture which will help drive scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon to start the week. All the while, a stalled frontal boundary will be hanging around to our north, meandering for the next several days and acting as another focal point for showers and storms. As we get into the weekend, another front approaches. As we so often see in the warm season, though, the front looks to have a hard time getting through the area, keeping us in the soup with scattered afternoon thunderstorms through Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday sure won’t feel like June in the wake of a cold front that came through earlier today. Cool high pressure will wedge into the area, and the resulting onshore flow will keep temperatures rather pleasant and cloud cover reasonably low to start the new work week. We’ll begin a warming trend on Wednesday with a return to the 90s by Thursday. Next rain chances arrive by this weekend.

Some much-needed rain is in the forecast for much of the upcoming week as a cold front with an accompanying upper low moves through the area. Said upper low will then stall out over the Southeast into the end of the week, keeping thunderstorm chances around and temperatures a little below normal. As the upper low shifts away from the area toward Friday and the weekend, we’ll see rain chances decrease and temperatures approach the 90° mark. Overall, expect around an inch of rain before the week is over, with locally heavier amounts possible in thunderstorms — a healthy amount of rain, but not all at once, thankfully.

High pressure will be in firm control of our weather this week, keeping rain-free conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies in play. We’ll start the week with temperatures continuing to run below normal as one more front gets through the area early Monday. From Wednesday on, a warming trend will begin as high pressure sets up offshore, bringing warmer air in from the south and allowing temperatures to head up to the mid-80s by the weekend. A few scattered PM showers and storms will be possible Saturday and Sunday, but no washout is in store. Enjoy it (six feet away from others)!

We’ll go from abnormally warm to abnormally cool in the course of these next seven days as a very late-season shot of Canadian air comes down the eastern half of the country in time for Mother’s Day. First, though, we continue with our more summer-like conditions to start the week. A cold front will sag south during the day on Monday, helping to drive temperatures back into the upper 80s out ahead of it with the potential for some showers and storms along it. The front will meander in the area for a couple days, and as upper-level disturbances traverse it, it is possible that we may see some showers and thunderstorms.

Another front swings through Wednesday, cooling us off back into the upper 70s, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air for the weekend as an unusually cold airmass of Canadian (and perhaps Arctic) origin surges southward into the eastern half of the Lower 48, sending temperatures well below mid-May normals in the low 80s. While we won’t see any frost or freeze concerns, you won’t have to go too terribly far north to find some! In fact, it is conceivable that the current NWS highs might be generous if some of the ensemble members are to be believed. Regardless, though, Mother’s Day should look pretty good across the Lowcountry!

It’s been a couple weeks since I’ve even generated one of these seven-day graphics because I’ve spent the past two Sundays intensely focused on an overnight severe weather threat heading into the following Monday.

No such issues this week — in fact, the only severity in the weather on Monday will be how severely nice it will be. We start the new work week in the low 50s and end up in the mid-70s under full sunshine. 80s return on Tuesday as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Our next rain chance should arrive by Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a storm system crosses the Great Lakes, sending a trailing cold front down our way. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, but no severe weather is currently expected. We will clear out during the day Thursday, setting us up for an increasingly warm and mostly sunny weekend as we start May.

After a rather pleasant weekend, temperatures will begin to trend back above normal this week with chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs will be getting into the mid-80s by midweek, marking a return to that summer preview we were feeling toward the end of March. A cold front will move through the area sometime later this week, bringing a reduction in temperatures, but showers may yet stick around. It’s a fairly low confidence forecast looking toward next weekend with a fair bit of divergence in the models, so stay tuned for updates as things will undoubtedly need to be ironed out.

After a downright summer-like weekend, more seasonable conditions (with even some below-normal temperatures) will assert themselves as we kick off April. First, though, we’ll get a few showers and storms through the area on Tuesday.

We’ll get off to a bit of a showery start this week as a mess of frontal boundaries and upper-level disturbances interact to bring occasional rainfall to the area. Temperatures will rebound nicely from Sunday’s low 60s into the low 70s on Monday. A warm front crossing north of the area Tuesday will bring some shower chances and slightly warmer temperatures. By Wednesday, a cold front trailing from a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic will bring us a few more showers — and a return to the 80s — before clearing the area.

The aforementioned front will bring a drop in dew points on Thursday, but won’t necessarily cool things off too much thanks to deep westerly flow around a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. As we get into the weekend, said ridge will move eastward and strengthen. At the same time, surface flow will turn more southwesterly, ushering in early summer-like conditions for Friday and Saturday. A record high appears likely on Friday and may be threatened Saturday as temperatures top out in the upper 80s. A 90° reading somewhere inland may not be out of the realm of possibility, depending on where the ridge sets up. Sinking motion in the atmosphere will keep rain chances muted into the weekend.