We’ll get this week off to a rainy and windy start as the storm system which rained on us for a fair bit of today moves through the area on Monday, ushering in the coldest air of the season in its wake.

Aside from Monday evening into Tuesday, Thanksgiving week will shape up a bit on the warm side, with a few showers for Thanksgiving Day possible.

Overall, the pattern will be pretty progressive this week. We’ll start the week with a cold front swinging through during the day Monday. This will knock temperatures back into the low 40s by Tuesday morning, with highs only reaching the mid-60s during the day. High pressure quickly shifts eastward, though, allowing for temperatures to moderate (and clouds to increase) ahead of another front Wednesday. The next front looks to swing through Thursday into Friday, and this is where we may see a few showers develop. (Right now, chances are low.) Temperatures will then level off a little lower, with perhaps some rain chances toward the end of the weekend depending on the forward speed of another storm system.

A cold front is swinging through the Southeast Sunday evening, which will bring a stop to the ridiculously humid weather we’ve been experiencing this past week. Temperatures will be right around normal to start the week under full sunshine. A reinforcing shot of cool air on Wednesday will knock us firmly into sweater weather territory, with moderating temperatures into the 70s for the weekend. The week looks to remain rain-free, which will be awfully nice after the tropical soaking we took last week.

Fall’s hiatus continues this week as we sit between high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Eta to the south. Monday looks to be the driest day of the week with just a slight chance of showers throughout the day. Rain chances head up into Wednesday as tropical moisture associated with Eta gets drawn up into the area by a frontal system approaching from the west. This front looks to stall out by the end of the week, keeping a chance for showers in the forecast through the weekend. (Eta could make the weekend a little more wet and windy, so consider that forecast somewhat low-confidence at the moment.)

Temperatures will remain rather warm for early to mid-November. NWS notes that some record high minimum temperatures could fall this week, with lows in the 70s forecasted especially Wednesday and Thursday. (For contrast, the typical high temperature this time of year is around 71-72°.) Highs will generally run in the upper 70s to low 80s, roughly 8-10° above normal for this time of year.

If you’re looking for a shift back into Fall, this week ain’t it. While we may cool off as we get into the following week, long-range guidance continues to hit on above-normal temperatures remaining the norm (as one would expect in a La Niña winter, which tends to trend warmer and drier in the Southeast).

Get your sweaters ready, at least for Monday and Tuesday morning: A cold front swinging through tonight will usher in the coolest airmass of the season thus far. The high of 59° forecast on Monday would be the coolest high since early March, and this is happening despite full sunshine. We could see some frost develop away from the barrier islands Tuesday morning as temperatures dip into the 30s. We’ll rebound to near 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies, making the weather a non-impediment for Election Day.

Temperatures recover fairly quickly as we get into mid-week; we’ll be up into the 70s by Wednesday, and that continues for the rest of the week. We’ll gradually see a warmer and more humid airmass get into the area, with lows creeping up into the 60s by the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers become possible later this week, but so far, not seeing a prolonged rain event.

We’ll close out this rather warm month of October (eighth warmest on record as of this evening) with one last stretch of warm, muggy days before a storm system rolls through the area Thursday into Friday.

Temperatures will head back above normal this week with shower chances coming back into the picture starting Tuesday. Showers will be isolated to scattered at best for most of the week as a coastal trough persists. Onshore flow will keep dewpoints up, making for a warm and humid mid-to-late October week. Expect highs in the 80s just about every day with lows in the mid-60s. (Closer to the coast, take a couple degrees off the high and add it to the low.)

The remnants of Delta are on their way out, giving way to a series of fronts over the next few days that will gradually ease us back into fall weather. First, though, we will still contend with elevated heat and humidity Monday into Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. Then, a front will wedge in from the north, cooling us off a little for Wednesday and Thursday with highs only topping out in the low 80s. A better shot of cooler and drier air arrives late Friday into early Saturday — perhaps with some showers — as another area of high pressure builds in from the west. This one will bring us back to fall, with upper 60s to around 70° for Saturday and low 70s for Sunday.

Temperatures this week will run a little warmer than last week with a bit more moisture in the area. We’ll start off the work week with a pleasant mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid-70s. A little more moisture moves in with a trough of low pressure on Tuesday, bringing some shower chances to the area. Temperatures warm into the low 80s for Wednesday and Thursday before high pressure wedges in, with moisture riding over the top of the wedge bringing some shower chances into the cards. Overall, not too shabby, if not quite as crisp as it felt last week.

We’ll start this new work week rainy and warm ahead of a cold front. NWS is forecasting 1-2″ of rain for most of us through early Wednesday before the front swings through. And once that front swings through, what a difference — humidity will get knocked back down a peg and we’ll get into a really nice fall-like pattern to start October with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s away from the coast.

Keep an eye on Tuesday’s forecast. As the cold front swings through with low pressure riding just to the north, there will be a chance for a couple strong storms. Right now, widespread severe weather is not expected. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Otherwise, make sure your hoodies and other light jackets are present and accounted for as we turn nice and crisp heading into next weekend!