This week’s forecast is largely straightforward and gets better as the week wears on. We’ll get much of the rain out of the way Monday morning, with shower chances diminishing heading into the evening as coastal low pressure departs. Monday’s going to be the chilliest day of the set with highs struggling to crack 50° thanks to the showers and persistent cold wedge.

Cloud cover and maybe a shower or two will linger to start Tuesday, but we’ll be trending clearer as the day goes on. Highs top out in the mid-50s. From there, temperatures begin to trend at or even above normal with several days of quiet weather on tap from Wednesday to at least Saturday if not beyond. There is a little model noise around some rain in the area by next Sunday, but agreement and consistency is meh at the moment. For now, the NWS forecast maintains dry but slightly cooler weather for Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on that in case it changes!

After a sunny respite on Saturday, clouds and showers are returning to the forecast for Sunday into Monday as moisture lifts atop a southward-building wedge of high pressure and a trough of low pressure sets up along the coast. Expect showers to develop mostly offshore overnight into early Sunday, with the best chance for any showers to be found near the coast. Many of us could stay dry until Sunday evening, when low pressure developing offshore begins to send more precipitation northward and westward. This feature will keep precipitation in our forecast into much of Monday as well.

Sunday’s going to remain pretty chilly as the wedge builds southward amidst a persistent northeasterly breeze. We’ll start the day in the mid-30s with wind chills dipping into the 20s. Cloud cover will inhibit much in the way of warming, with highs only looking to top out in the low 50s in the afternoon.

While it will certainly feel like there should be frozen precipitation, the good news is that the airmass is just not cold enough to accomplish that. Why is this good news, you ask? Because in these kinds of setups, the most likely frozen precipitation type would be freezing rain. (Gross.)

Hang in there through tomorrow and Monday, though — the rest of the week looks to be rather nice, with temperatures near normal and decent sunshine as high pressure builds in.

Our spring preview has one more day to go before a cold front comes through later Friday and knocks temperatures down quite a bit for Saturday. We’ll see rain chances head up as we head into Friday afternoon and evening, with even a chance for a rumble of thunder or two. Instability will be lacking, but the shear should be enough to support a couple thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day, though, with the best chances around dinnertime.

We turn much cooler Saturday in the wake of said cold front. We’ll see a brief round of clearing on Saturday before a coastal low develops near Florida and heads northeastward, helping to drive a wedge of cooler air southward and keeping a shower chance around near the coast for much of the day. (That being said, it will not rain all day at any one location, either!) Temperatures may not get out of the upper 40s on Sunday. The good news? No sub-freezing temperatures are in the forecast, thus there are no winter weather concerns.

Despite winds going back around to the northeast later Saturday into Sunday, we’re far enough removed from the perigean spring tide where coastal flooding doesn’t look to be a concern for the weekend. It’s been an active year for coastal flooding already, with 11 events in 2022 so far, and we’re just into February 3rd. This already beats 1998’s total of ten coastal flooding events in that year’s first two months.

Thursday will offer up an early taste of spring as breezy southerly winds ahead of our next cold front pump warm air into the area. After starting the day in the mid-50s — keeping in mind the normal high for early February is 62° — temperatures will head into the 70s in the afternoon under a mix of clouds and sun. Some of the high-resolution guidance members do show a stray shower or two in the area, but a mostly dry atmospheric column should keep those few and far between.

As mentioned before, it’ll be breezy: southerly winds could gust to about 20 MPH or so at times during the day, so keep this in mind if you’re thinking about an outdoor lunch.

There remains an outside shot at some coastal flooding again Wednesday morning, but the more southerly flow should help keep any tidal flooding relatively minor. Still, watch out around the 9:39 AM high tide for a few salt water-covered roads in vulnerable spots, particularly near MUSC and The Citadel.

Our warming trend continues as we head toward Friday before a cold front gets by and knocks Saturday back to normal. Wednesday features partly cloudy skies and highs topping out in the mid-60s, while we go even warmer on Thursday — low 70s for highs! — despite increasing cloud cover as the cold front draws nearer. By Friday, we stay in the 70s, but expect showers to begin to develop and move across the area ahead of said front. We turn much cooler for the weekend behind the front, and will likely stay unsettled pending the development of a coastal low that will head northeastward, keeping rain chances in our forecast into the new work week.

After a couple rather chilly weeks, we’ll give the heavy jackets a bit of a rest as ridging builds in aloft. We start the week with low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s and highs in the low-to-mid-60s with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover ticks up a little bit for Wednesday, but so do temperatures as we get close to 70° in the afternoon. By Thursday, another storm system will be approaching from the west, but we should top out in the low 70s before it starts to get into the area. Right now our best rain chance arrives Friday as the cold front gets through. Saturday will turn much cooler with highs back in the mid-50s. This continues into Sunday, with perhaps a slight rain chance as moisture overruns a wedge of high pressure at the surface.

Sunday morning will be the coldest of the season thus far as lows bottom out in the low 20s in the metro area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few spots dip below 20°, even. Suffice to say, this is pipe-busting cold — keep a faucet on drip and make sure your pets and plants are in a warm place tonight. Add on some wind kicking in after sunrise, and temperatures could feel closer to the mid-teens during the morning.

A warming trend will commence, though, as winds go southwesterly during the day Sunday. Temperatures will top out in the low 50s (as opposed to the mid-40s) in the afternoon. We won’t fall below freezing overnight in most locations in the metro area (staying in the mid-30s) as we head into Monday morning, either. From there, Monday could be the warmest afternoon in a week and a half as highs climb into the low 60s for the first time since it was 73° on January 20. We could even see 70s again on Thursday ahead of our next storm system which, thankfully, looks to stay all liquid this go-around.

No point in burying the lede: Yes, we do have a legitimate shot at some light snow very early on Saturday morning. If you’re looking for your best chance to see snow, you’ll need to get up pretty early — general thinking around timing the change from rain to snow is generally from 3-5am from west to east.

There’s inherent uncertainty in where flakes will fly. We’re likely to see our best snow in northeastern Berkeley County and far northern Charleston County, where a couple hundredths of an inch could accumulate primarily on elevated and/or grassy surfaces. Further south into the Charleston metro area, precipitation looks to lighten up and taper off as moisture is stripped out of the atmosphere. It’s here where my confidence in whether we even see flurries is lower — a lot will be determined by the path of the upper low over the next few hours. In all cases, though, it is unlikely that we will see any problems.

Precipitation looks to depart generally around daybreak, though the further north you are, the longer it might linger as light snow. Once the snow is gone, attention turns to the surge of Arctic air in the wake of the strengthening coastal low pressure that is going to bring a blizzard to a fair number of people in New England. Highs will only top out in the low 40s, and it’s conceivable that wind chills could be in the 20s well into the afternoon. Air temperatures get that low for Sunday morning as another cold day is on tap before a warming trend evolves beginning Monday.

Let me know what you’re seeing tonight into tomorrow morning if you end up trying to wake up early for this — just make sure you’re bundled up!

Well, here we are getting into the weekend with another storm system primed to affect the area. Overcast skies will be the rule for much of Friday as showers develop in the afternoon on the periphery of offshore low pressure. Temperatures will only top out around 50-51° given the lack of sunshine and northerly component to the wind.

As we get into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning, showers could give way to some snow flurries as colder air punches into the area. I always urge caution with cold-chasing-moisture scenarios like the one we will find ourselves in, but as an upper low traverses the area on the heels of the surface low pressure system moving northeast, it’s certainly conceivable that parts of the Tri-County, especially along and north of a Summerville-Moncks Corner-Jamestown line, could see a period of snow. Flurries will be possible all the way to the coast and perhaps as far south as Edisto as we get toward daybreak Saturday. Accumulations, if any, will be quite light and confined to grassy surfaces, and travel disruptions are not expected. And yes, folks — there will be no ice.

While the risk for snow is still quite conditional (and, to be fair, may not fully pan out), the certainty in the forecast is another shot of Arctic air that will turn this weekend frigid. Temperatures will struggle into the low 40s on Saturday afternoon despite cloud cover scouring out, producing clear skies by the afternoon. Sunday morning is setting up to rival the coldest of the season with lows in the low 20s expected in the Charleston metro area. This is potentially pipe-busting cold, and you’ll need to make sure that pets, plants, pipes, and people are safe and sound Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any bit of light wind could bring the wind chill factor into the upper teens on Sunday morning, too. We’ll keep plenty of sun in the forecast for Sunday, but even then, highs will likely not crack 50°.

The good news is that we begin a sharp warming trend on Monday. As we get into later in the new work week, we may even flirt with 70° for a time. With that in mind, though, the large scale pattern continues to favor generally cooler-than-normal conditions in the eastern half of the US, so don’t change out the wardrobe at the first sign of upper 60s just yet.

Thursday will start below freezing as cold air continues to push into the area from the northeast. Temperatures generally look to range between the upper 20s well inland to around freezing in the North Charleston area to the mid-to-upper 30s closer to the coast. Factor in the wind, though, and it may feel like the low 20s in spots. Make sure everyone’s bundled up well heading to work or school. Afternoon temperatures top out in the low 50s despite the plentiful sunshine.

As we get into Friday, we’ll be watching the development of a low pressure system off the coast closely. Said low pressure will spread rain into the area on Friday before another shot of Arctic air arrives. There remains a possibility for some flurries or brief snow showers early Saturday morning. The closer the low is, the better shot we have at some wrap-around flurries. Generally speaking, though, cold chasing moisture can be a recipe for winter weather disappointment in the Carolinas, so be sure to set expectations accordingly. Most importantly, no accumulations are forecast, limiting travel impacts. (No freezing rain, either!)

The certain impact from this storm will be the aforementioned Arctic air being drawn southward behind it. We may not get out of the 40s from Friday night through Monday afternoon, with a particularly frigid morning on tap on Sunday with low 20s in the Charleston metro area and the potential for air temperatures in the teens further inland.

Stay tuned to forecast updates on our (thankfully much more conversational) winter weather chances overnight Friday into Saturday morning!