All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued as Danny moves away and weakens, and so we can now look forward to a calmer and more sunny Tuesday. We could see an isolated shower or storm come in off the Atlantic in the morning, but other than that, we should see a good bit of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, still a few degrees below normal for late June. Rain chances head up as the week goes on, and it’s conceivable that this could end up being the driest day of the week, so try to take advantage where you can.

Tropical Storm Danny, which was named in a tropical cyclone update a little after 3PM after radar and recon data indicated it had strengthened, is on course to make landfall somewhere between Hilton Head and Edisto over the next couple hours.

At 5PM, it had maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH — a little up from the previous advisory. It’s still moving WNW at 16 MPH, and the NHC center fix had it 35 miles east of Beaufort and 35 miles SSW of Charleston. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Charleston County coastline, where gusts to tropical storm force remain possible through this evening.

On and off rain squalls have been pelting much of the Charleston area over the past few hours, with winds consistently gusting 20-30 MPH at the airport. It is worth noting, though, that with much of the heavy thunderstorm activity remaining displaced well to the west of the center, rainfall estimates have been rather tame across much of the area. The main exception is a small swath from Kiawah to Edisto, which received upwards of 1.5″ of rain after a heavy squall came through then. There have been no reports of flooding in the Charleston metro area, and so far only one report of a downed tree.

Model data and radar trends indicate that we are through the worst of it here in Charleston. The eastern semicircle of the storm is much drier, owing to the persistent wind shear that has been blowing the thunderstorms out to the west. Scattered showers continue across inland locations, but we are seeing a marked decrease in rainfall rates and coverage over the last couple hours. Still, tropical storm-force gusts will be possible especially from Charleston Harbor southward to Folly, Kiawah, Seabrook, and Edisto Islands through tonight, so we cannot totally rule out isolated power outages or additional downed trees.

Next intermediate advisory will be at 8PM.

The National Hurricane Center has classified Tropical Depression Four about 110 miles east-southeast of Charleston. It is moving west-northwest at 16 MPH. The forecast is for the storm to briefly strengthen to Tropical Storm Danny before the center makes landfall — currently pegged to roughly around Kiawah Island — this evening.

As for the going forecast, this doesn’t really change much. Gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall remain the primary concerns especially near the coast. A power outage or two is not out of the question, but the thinking from earlier holds: this is going to be a lousy beach day with windy and rainy conditions.

High tide is coming up at 11:45 AM. Radar trends do suggest some rain could be in the area around that time, but the heaviest rain has so far shown itself to remain south of us. Indeed, the sheared nature of the storm has much of its thunderstorm activity well to the west of the circulation. However, given the more northward motion than models had previously indicated, the risk for some heavier rain increases slightly in the metro area. We’ll want to continue to watch this for the next few hours.

Next intermediate advisory from NHC with a position update comes at 2PM, with the next full track and advisory package at 5.

Get ready for periods of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy rain and gusty winds at the coast as a tropical disturbance of some kind comes ashore south of the Charleston metro area in the afternoon. While it’s unclear what state the disturbance will be in by the time it arrives tomorrow, the impacts are largely expected to remain the same.

So far, Sunday has run a little drier than previous days without a better forcing mechanism to kick off showers and thunderstorms. While a shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, most of us should stay dry today as highs head into the upper 80s. Humidity will make it feel closer to the low 90s, especially right in the wake of the seabreeze passage this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, and we should still see a decent breeze at the beaches throughout the day. All in all, not too shabby for the last Sunday in June. (Hard to believe, isn’t it?)

This weekend will feature scattered storms both days, with a little better coverage on Saturday as a trough moves inland. The good news is that it won’t rain all day, and there will be plenty of sunshine mixed in around the storms. Coverage becomes more isolated on Sunday, generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major issue, but remember that all thunderstorms are dangerous thanks to the lightning they produce.

Temperatures will run a little warmer this weekend, but onshore flow will continue to keep them tamped down a few degrees below normal (about 90° this time of year). Mix in humidity and it’ll feel a little more like the low 90s in the afternoon. That’s pretty warm, but it could be so much worse in late June.

After a remarkably nice couple days behind a rare summertime cold front, said front retreats back over our neck of the woods as a trough of low pressure on Friday, bringing humidity, showers, and thunderstorms back into the weather picture. These elevated rain chances stick around to start the weekend before tapering off to more traditional isolated afternoon thunderstorm coverage on Sunday. Temperatures warm up from 84° on Friday to 88° on Sunday, but we are typically talking about 90s on a regular basis in late June, so we’ll take it.

One thing I’m not seeing is a total washout of the weekend by any stretch. Don’t cancel outdoor plans, just have a good backup ready to go in case you need it. Remember, all thunderstorms are dangerous because of the lightning they produce. If you see lightning or hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck, so get inside as soon as you can if storms approach.

Coastal flooding will remain a possibility Friday and maybe Saturday nights as lingering astronomical influences and continued onshore flow could push tides above 7’ in the harbor in the late evenings. Be ready for additional bouts of coastal flooding and possible road closures as a result.

A cold front will pass through the area and stall out to the southeast as high pressure wedges down a little bit from the north. This will generate a bit of onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the mid-80s through the end of the work week. This will also combine with enhanced astronomical tides thanks to Thursday’s full moon to cause some minor to moderate coastal flooding each evening through at least Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Friday, with the best chances coming along with the inland-moving seabreeze especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. By Friday, we’ll see an increased chance of thunderstorms as high pressure to the northeast gives way, allowing a trough of low pressure offshore to migrate inland and provide a sharper focus for precipitation to form.

With such saturated ground from a pretty rainy June thus far, we’ll want to watch any areas of heavy rain that develop for an isolated flooding threat. This doubly goes for times of the evening high tides due to the aforementioned king tides. With that in mind, the good news is that it won’t rain all day, every day, and not everyone will see rain every day, either.

Most of us saw a dry day today, giving us a respite from the heavy downpours that have characterized June thus far. A cold front approaching from the west is going to put a swift end to this respite, though, as it runs into an atmosphere still plenty juiced up with tropical moisture and ready to wring out some more rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm coverage could begin to ramp up as early as tomorrow morning (and some guidance is fairly persistent in it firing up as soon as midnight), with the greatest risk of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms could produce torrential downpours which may produce isolated flooding episodes. Overall, 1-2” of rain will be possible across the area with locally higher amounts.

Additionally, there is the potential for wind damage to occur in some of the stronger thunderstorms, especially where outflow boundary collisions occur. Be alert for possible warnings in the afternoon.

The prevalence of showers and thunderstorms will act to keep high temperatures a few degrees below normal, generally running in the mid-80s. Heat indices will still climb into the 90s, though, thanks to the ever-present humidity.

As of about 9PM, Claudette’s center was moving eastward across northern parts of South Carolina. The exact center fix is a little murky, but radar suggests that as of this writing it is roughly riding the SC/NC border around Chesterfield County, SC. The leading edge of Claudette’s primary rain band has cleared downtown Charleston and is headed offshore, with light to moderate rain behind it. This rain band appears to have cleared downtown with relatively little fanfare, but winds have been gusting quite a bit, with a recent gust to 62 MPH recorded at the Isle of Palms WeatherFlow station.

Light to moderate rains look to continue for the next few hours as the primary rain band swings through the area. It appears that there could be additional showers and thunderstorms behind it; these are moving southeastward out of Augusta and could swing around into the Tri-County before it’s all said and done. A Flash Flood Watch continues across the Charleston Metro Area effective until 8am Monday, though this may yet be canceled early once this band lifts out.

The risk for severe weather (particularly the tornado threat) has ended across our area at this point. With the center directly to the north, surface winds coming out of the west lowering shear, and instability having been sapped by the rain band, the environment is not really conducive to tornado formation anymore. We caught a break with this today, especially considering the ample sunshine we saw for a good bit of the day to aid destabilization. Still, straight-line gusts of 40-50 MPH across saturated grounds could still be sufficient for downed trees and power lines, so keep flashlights nearby in case of power outages.