The week ahead gets off to a hot start as westerly winds keep the seabreeze close to the coast for much of the day, driving highs into the mid-to-upper 90s on Monday afternoon. Mix in low-70s dewpoints and heat indices will peak above 105° in the afternoon. From there, a thunderstorm complex will approach the area from the northwest, but it should get here toward the evening and be in a weakening phase as a result. A strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out, though, especially the further inland you are.

Pretty standard early-August fare is in order for the weekend (weather-wise, anyway). Expect to start Saturday in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, with highs heading into the low 90s in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though it’s worth noting that Friday afternoon’s high-resolution models keep coverage pretty sparse across the Tri-County. It’s conceivable that some folks may not see a drop of rain — altogether not the worst thing after a fairly wet Friday.

Expect more of the same on Sunday with temperatures heading a couple degrees warmer than Saturday as a nearby front washes out. Heat indices will push 100° in the afternoon with another chance of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Like Saturday, widespread rain is currently not anticipated — just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms approach.

Our recent dry respite is about to come to an end as disturbances aloft interact with a surface front to keep things unsettled for a few days. The greatest coverage of storms will be on Friday as the most vigorous disturbance moves on by with the front sinking into the area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, and this will have the effect of suppressing highs into the mid-80s. Instability should be fairly weak, and the severe weather threat is low, but some heavy downpours will be possible which could lead to some areas of flooding.

Thursday should be generally quiet across the metro area for the vast majority of the day as dry air characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s — about as good as it gets at this point in the year — hang around for one more day. Expect the day to start in the low 70s once again with highs warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as a disturbance approaches, with a slight chance of showers after sunset, but again, the vast majority if not all of us get Thursday in rain-free.

After the fourth-warmest July on record at North Charleston, we catch a bit of a break from the high heat as we get over the hump into the rest of the work week as highs only look to get into the mid-to-upper 80s through Friday. The drier air will be quite noticeable especially Wednesday and Thursday mornings as lows look to dip into the low 70s. The drier air will also act to keep shower and thunderstorm chances to a minimum Wednesday and Thursday, with maybe a popup or two on the inland-moving seabreeze in the afternoons.

Rain chances head back up on Friday as high pressure weakens and moisture surges back into the area. We’ll likely see off and on showers and storms break out with just a little sunshine, continuing throughout the day. Some very heavy rain will be possible at times, and we’ll need to watch for the risk for flooding in a few spots with fairly slow storm motions expected.

Finally, onshore flow with the recent full moon will continue to drive tides into flood stage over the next couple nights. The water level peaked at 7.93′ at 8:48 PM on Tuesday evening, and water levels between 7.6-7.8′ look probable for Wednesday evening. Expect road closures downtown as a result. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

We start August with a relatively “cool” day, at least in contrast to that second half of July we just had, anyway. We start the day in the low 70s before temperatures head to the upper 80s in the afternoon. A little drier air will be mixing in, but it’ll still be humid enough to get heat indices into the mid-90s. Still, though, this is what passes for improvement at this time of year.

A few thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, though we shouldn’t see the high coverage that we’ve seen the past two nights. The risk for severe weather is a little lower, too.

The main fly in the ointment on Tuesday evening will be tidal flooding; high tide around 8:43 PM should top out around 7.3-7.5′ in the harbor, producing minor to moderate coastal flooding and likely causing some road closures, which were observed with Monday evening’s 7.52′ high tide. Be ready to route around flooding if you have plans downtown Tuesday evening.

The week ahead starts out unsettled as a front meanders in the area before we “cool off” a bit heading into mid-week as the aforementioned front pushes south, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. Ridging then builds back in to warm us up later in the week.

The brief interlude away from the mid-90s air temperatures that have punctuated a fair bit of July will end Sunday as a tropical low and its associated showers and thunderstorms moves away. We’ll start the day in the mid-70s before highs top out in the mid-90s in the afternoon; mix in humidity and we should see heat indices around 105-106° around peak heating.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should fire later in the afternoon into the evening hours and head coastward within northwest flow. A storm or two could get strong enough to produce a damaging wind gust or two, so we’ll want to watch that potential closely. Not everyone will see rain and storms, but if you do, be ready to move outdoor activities inside.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will figure somewhat prominently into Saturday’s forecast as a low pressure system moves across the area. The feed of moisture and shower and thunderstorm coverage should help keep highs from getting into the 90s, though even upper 80s combined with rich mid-70s dewpoints yield heat indices in the upper 90s. The tropical moisture feed could lead to some very heavy rain in some spots, with nuisance flooding possible where the heaviest rains set up. It won’t rain all day in any one location, either, but expect interruptions to outdoor activities.

Sunday should be a little quieter rain-wise (at least to start) as the disturbance lifts away. This will let temperatures head well into the mid-90s, yielding heat indices 105-110°. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours, and there is a small chance of a thunderstorm complex trying to make inroads into the area later in the evening, so be ready to dodge those if being out Sunday is in your plans. All in all, no washout, but just be flexible.

Heat indices head back into the danger zone for Friday and the weekend as an uptick in moisture within onshore flow sends dewpoints up into the mid-to-upper 70s. This will also help in bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ashore across the area, perhaps as early as the morning, pressing inland with time with the seabreeze as the day goes on, much like Thursday. We’ll see a similar setup on Saturday, while Sunday should feature a more standard afternoon/evening thunderstorm configuration. The good news is that rain will not hang out terribly long in any one location, and should represent nothing more than a brief inconvenience.

Highs on Friday top out around 90° and in the low 90s on Saturday, while air temperatures warm into the mid-90s on Sunday. Heat indices will head above 105° each afternoon thanks to the aforementioned tropical air. Sunday could feature heat indices approaching 110°, which could lead to a heat advisory. Be cautious if you are out and about during the heat of the afternoons over the next few days!