We’re back to heat and humidity for Thursday as the brief respite of drier air comes to a close. Lows will be rather balmy — upper 70s away from the coast, likely at 80° or above closer to the coast and in Downtown Charleston — as the high temperature heads to the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Expect heat indices 105-110°, with the warmer heat indices near the coast where the higher dewpoints will be found. NWS notes a heat advisory might be needed; will keep an eye on that.

A few thunderstorms will be possible during the day Thursday as a disturbance moves by to the north. A couple storms could be on the strong side with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Not everyone will see storms, though.

We look to get a break from the rain on Wednesday as some slightly drier air works into the area for a spell. It’ll still be plenty hot, though — lows start in the mid-70s away from the warmer coastline to head to the mid-90s in the afternoon as persistent westerly winds delay the seabreeze once again. Expect heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100° with dewpoints suppressed to the upper 60s.

From there, moisture returns to the area and our thunderstorm chances respond in kind as disturbances swing through the trough aloft. There’s a small chance we could deal with a thunderstorm complex in the morning before more thunderstorms fire later Thursday toward peak heating. So it shall be on Friday as well, with a slightly better chance of storms in the afternoon given slightly richer surface dewpoints. A few storms could be on the strong to severe side with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Temperature-wise, expect highs to top out in the mid-90s each day after starting out in the upper 70s. Heat indices will head north of 105° again and could creep toward 110°, so be ready to take heat safety precautions during the afternoons before thunderstorms get going.

After a day in which heat indices spiked to 117° at Mt. Pleasant, we should see another round of hot weather on Tuesday, though perhaps not to the extremes we saw on Monday with somewhat lower dewpoints behind a stalling front. Still, heat indices could approach 110° especially near the coast, and another Heat Advisory might be coming down the pike as a result.

Another thunderstorm complex will move across the South on Tuesday, and could bring some impacts to our nook of the Lowcountry in the evening hours. A lot will depend on how far south the front ultimately gets. For now, the best risk of severe weather looks displaced to the south of the Charleston metro, but we’ll want to keep an eye on this as the day goes on in case things change.

The week ahead gets off to a hot start as westerly winds keep the seabreeze close to the coast for much of the day, driving highs into the mid-to-upper 90s on Monday afternoon. Mix in low-70s dewpoints and heat indices will peak above 105° in the afternoon. From there, a thunderstorm complex will approach the area from the northwest, but it should get here toward the evening and be in a weakening phase as a result. A strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out, though, especially the further inland you are.

Pretty standard early-August fare is in order for the weekend (weather-wise, anyway). Expect to start Saturday in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, with highs heading into the low 90s in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though it’s worth noting that Friday afternoon’s high-resolution models keep coverage pretty sparse across the Tri-County. It’s conceivable that some folks may not see a drop of rain — altogether not the worst thing after a fairly wet Friday.

Expect more of the same on Sunday with temperatures heading a couple degrees warmer than Saturday as a nearby front washes out. Heat indices will push 100° in the afternoon with another chance of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Like Saturday, widespread rain is currently not anticipated — just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms approach.

Our recent dry respite is about to come to an end as disturbances aloft interact with a surface front to keep things unsettled for a few days. The greatest coverage of storms will be on Friday as the most vigorous disturbance moves on by with the front sinking into the area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, and this will have the effect of suppressing highs into the mid-80s. Instability should be fairly weak, and the severe weather threat is low, but some heavy downpours will be possible which could lead to some areas of flooding.

Thursday should be generally quiet across the metro area for the vast majority of the day as dry air characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s — about as good as it gets at this point in the year — hang around for one more day. Expect the day to start in the low 70s once again with highs warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as a disturbance approaches, with a slight chance of showers after sunset, but again, the vast majority if not all of us get Thursday in rain-free.

After the fourth-warmest July on record at North Charleston, we catch a bit of a break from the high heat as we get over the hump into the rest of the work week as highs only look to get into the mid-to-upper 80s through Friday. The drier air will be quite noticeable especially Wednesday and Thursday mornings as lows look to dip into the low 70s. The drier air will also act to keep shower and thunderstorm chances to a minimum Wednesday and Thursday, with maybe a popup or two on the inland-moving seabreeze in the afternoons.

Rain chances head back up on Friday as high pressure weakens and moisture surges back into the area. We’ll likely see off and on showers and storms break out with just a little sunshine, continuing throughout the day. Some very heavy rain will be possible at times, and we’ll need to watch for the risk for flooding in a few spots with fairly slow storm motions expected.

Finally, onshore flow with the recent full moon will continue to drive tides into flood stage over the next couple nights. The water level peaked at 7.93′ at 8:48 PM on Tuesday evening, and water levels between 7.6-7.8′ look probable for Wednesday evening. Expect road closures downtown as a result. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

We start August with a relatively “cool” day, at least in contrast to that second half of July we just had, anyway. We start the day in the low 70s before temperatures head to the upper 80s in the afternoon. A little drier air will be mixing in, but it’ll still be humid enough to get heat indices into the mid-90s. Still, though, this is what passes for improvement at this time of year.

A few thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, though we shouldn’t see the high coverage that we’ve seen the past two nights. The risk for severe weather is a little lower, too.

The main fly in the ointment on Tuesday evening will be tidal flooding; high tide around 8:43 PM should top out around 7.3-7.5′ in the harbor, producing minor to moderate coastal flooding and likely causing some road closures, which were observed with Monday evening’s 7.52′ high tide. Be ready to route around flooding if you have plans downtown Tuesday evening.

The week ahead starts out unsettled as a front meanders in the area before we “cool off” a bit heading into mid-week as the aforementioned front pushes south, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. Ridging then builds back in to warm us up later in the week.