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Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.

Fantastic weather weekend ahead while we keep an eye on T.D. Nine

/ September 23, 2022 at 8:18 PM

High pressure will dominate the pattern this weekend, bringing us excellent weather for outdoor activities.

Saturday will start out as cool as it’s been since mid-May, with lows expected to bottom out in the mid-50s away from the locally warmer coast. Cloud-free skies should persist for much of the day as temperatures head to the low 80s in the afternoon. Winds will be down compared to what we saw Friday, too, which should make it a little easier to enjoy a meal outdoors with a lower risk of unintentional napkin aviation.

High pressure will begin to slip offshore Saturday night into Sunday, and this will make Sunday’s start feel about 5-10° warmer on average across the area with lows bottoming out around the mid-60s. Mostly sunny skies will persist, though, and highs will generally top out in the mid-80s. It’ll be a touch more humid, but certainly not anything tremendously uncomfortable.

The only hazard we’ll need to really be concerned with this weekend is a lingering high risk for rip currents thanks to continued swell from Hurricane Fiona. Inexperienced swimmers should continue to avoid the Atlantic waters this weekend as a result.

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One more hot one for Thursday, then we turn cooler

/ September 21, 2022 at 6:49 PM

We’ve got one more hot day in store for Thursday before the weather takes a turn for the fantastic for Friday and the weekend. Compressional heating ahead of a cold front will drive highs into the mid-90s for Thursday afternoon, perhaps approaching the record high of 96° set in 1990 at the airport. Downtown could very well tie or break the record high of 92° set in 1925, too. Mix in a little bit of humidity and it’ll feel closer to the upper 90s (though heat indices should stay south of 100° as the deep-layer dry air helps to mix out dewpoints to the mid-60s). There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening hours as the front passes by, but don’t expect anything too heinous as there’s still plenty of dry air to overcome for much in the way of active weather.

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Rest of the work week: Mostly sunny & hot, but relief is in sight

/ September 20, 2022 at 10:07 PM

Quiet weather continues for the next several days as high pressure and drier air aloft keep any risk for precipitation very, very low. We’re also staying hot: we reached 91° today and look to do similar numbers for Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. Thursday will be even warmer, with highs reaching the low-to-mid-90s and humidity pushing the heat indices a few degrees warmer.

The heat will break, though, as a cold front swings through late Thursday/early Friday morning. This cold front is legit (and has a great sense of timing, with the autumnal equinox occurring at 9:03 PM Thursday), with a cooler and drier airmass working into the area that’ll knock high temperatures down 10-15° over the previous day. The current NWS forecast doesn’t even crack 80° on Friday! Feels like forever since we’ve had a high that low without any rain, and it will feel quite nice leading into what’ll be an exceptional weekend of weather with mostly sunny skies and seasonable, below-normal temperatures. Hang in there…relief from the heat is coming!

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Tuesday: Turning warmer as ridging builds aloft

/ September 19, 2022 at 9:15 PM

Tuesday will kick off a period of quiet and warming weather as expansive high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the region from the west. This’ll put the lid on much in the way of cloud cover, much less thunderstorm activity, allowing temperatures to approach 90° in the afternoon. Humidity won’t be terribly heinous, but will be enough to push the heat index to around 92° or so. Temperatures, especially highs, will run several degrees above normal through Thursday (which could approach the mid-90s) before a trough digs in to our north and drives a cold front through, which will make for a rather pleasant Friday and weekend of weather. (Not that I’m counting down or anything.)

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The week ahead: An end-of-summer blowtorch before another taste of fall

/ September 18, 2022 at 9:29 PM

It’ll be a tale of two seasons this week — both figuratively and literally — as we reach the autumnal equinox on Thursday to usher in astronomical Fall. Summer’s gonna have one final parting shot, though, as a ridge expands across much of the southern US during the middle of the week.

We’ll still be dealing with a pesky coastal trough on Monday, which will toss some occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm ashore. Temperatures will head up to the mid-80s away from the immediate coast; humidity will make it feel more like the low 90s. As the aforementioned ridge of high pressure builds in, though, the coastal trough will move away from the area, setting us up for a warm stretch mid-week. Tuesday’s highs will approach 90° as northerly to northwesterly flow aloft keeps cloud cover to a minimum. We get even hotter for Wednesday, with highs in the low 90s expected. Thursday’s going to be the hottest day of the set as compressional heating ahead of a cold front pushes temperatures close to the mid-90s — not quite meteorological conduct becoming of the first day of fall. Dry air in the area will limit cloud cover, much less any thunderstorm activity, so don’t count on that for any relief.

What we can count on, though, is the cold front to actually bring in a decent airmass change. Cooler and drier air will punch into the area overnight Thursday into Friday as the cold front gets through. We’ll start Friday on the warm side, but cool advection will kick in and keep temperatures from getting much warmer than the low 80s in the afternoon. The weekend is looking quite excellent, with a northeasterly breeze keeping temperatures a bit below normal for this point in the year and cloud cover to a minimum. We’ve just gotta get through this hot stretch first.

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Sunday: Stray shower possible, but most stay dry

/ September 17, 2022 at 7:55 PM

A coastal trough will bring our first mentionable shower and storm chances in a few days for Sunday as a few showers and thunderstorms could drift ashore from time to time. While some of the high-resolution guidance has been awfully aggressive about rainfall amounts and how far inland measurable rain gets, generally expect the best chance for any showers toward the coast. An isolated downpour can’t be ruled out particularly if deeper moisture can make it ashore. With all that said, the rain chances are far from substantial enough for canceling any outdoor plans — just keep an eye out tomorrow in the unlikely event a storm approaches.

Temperatures will continue to run right around normal for this point in the year. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s across much of the metro (low 70s at the beaches) before temperatures head up to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints are forecast to approach 70° in the afternoon, and that’ll yield heat indices in the low 90s at peak heating.

We’ll see similar conditions on Monday before a ridge of high pressure asserts control at the surface and aloft. We’ve got a few hot days in store next week, with air temperatures in the low 90s possible mid-week as we reach the autumnal equinox and Fall begins. A dry front will usher in a shot of cooler and drier air just in time for the weekend, though. NWS’s opening bid for next Saturday: Low 66°, high 81°, mostly sunny skies, dewpoints in the low 60s. (Can we fast-forward?)

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Weekend forecast: Looking good, stray shower possible Sunday

/ September 16, 2022 at 9:31 PM

We’ve got a pleasant weekend ahead, despite humidity creeping back up for Sunday with the specter of a stray shower or two in the mix.

Saturday’s the pick day, in my view: it’ll be the last day of the lower humidity we’ve been experiencing over the past few days, which will keep that high of 86° feeling like it’s 86°. On Sunday, we’ll see a little bit more in the way of humidity working back into the area as dewpoints creep back up to around 70° in the afternoon, causing that high of 86° to feel closer to 90-91°. A stray shower isn’t out of the question, but the vast majority of us look to stay dry.

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Friday & the weekend: Mostly pleasant, maybe a stray Sunday shower

/ September 15, 2022 at 10:00 PM

We’ve got a much nicer-looking weekend ahead than we had last weekend as a few more days of comfortable temperatures and generally quiet weather continue across the area. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies will generally be the rule each day. We start Friday back in the mid-60s for one more day before dewpoints begin to creep up heading into the weekend, nudging lows up to the upper 60s for Saturday and Sunday. Highs, though, will remain in the mid-80s — right at normal for this point in the year.

Sunday’s looking like the only day that could see a little shower and storm activity. A wave of low pressure is expected to form along a stationary front well to our south, with a coastal trough developing on its northern flank. This may be enough to push a few showers and storms inland from the Atlantic, but rain chances are slight at best; many of us should stay rain-free. Otherwise, though, quiet weather looks to persist well into next week as ridging develops aloft. Temperatures will warm a bit more under this ridge, and it’ll feel a touch more humid with dewpoints climbing to around 70° beginning Saturday night and Sunday, but rain chances remain next-to-nothing heading into next week. (We’ll take all the drying out we can get.)

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Thursday: A rather pleasant weather day

/ September 14, 2022 at 7:55 PM

We’ve got a really nice weather day coming up for Thursday. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s away from the coast (where the warmer water temperatures will keep lows above 70°). Temperatures will head into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies with a northeasterly breeze keeping things feeling seasonable. Meanwhile, dewpoints will mix out to around 60°, making for a very comfortable afternoon. All in all, it should be a really nice day to get out and about a bit as you can — I’d certainly recommend it.

Pleasant weather will continue for Friday into the weekend, too. A coastal trough could help get a shower or two toward the area on Saturday and Sunday, but otherwise, expect rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures.

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Rest of the work week: Less humid, more sun

/ September 13, 2022 at 10:10 PM

A cold front is working its way through the area this evening which will usher in some positive changes for our weather as we close out the work week.

First thing you’ll notice on Wednesday morning is that it’ll almost feel a little more like fall (away from the coast, anyway — the warm water temperatures will blunt the cooldown some there). Expect lows in the mid-60s to start the day; dewpoints in the low 60s will feel fairly amazing coupled with those temperatures. Highs head to the mid-80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies with a northeasterly breeze. Rain chances are very minimal, though the happy hour NAM was a bit intrigued with the idea of a few seabreeze popup showers in the afternoon. This seems to be an outlier solution, though.

Winds turn a touch more easterly on Thursday, which could expose the coastal areas a bit more to the potential for a few showers and storms to drift ashore. This’ll depend on where the front ultimately stalls out, and the probabilities for precipitation remain rather low in general. Otherwise, skies will once again be partly cloudy; lows will run in the upper 60s and highs in the mid-80s with continued comfortable dewpoints.

Friday looks to feature a little bit more in the way of sunshine, though northeasterly winds will keep warmth from running wild as we top out once again in the mid-80s after a nice start to the day with lows just below 70°. Rain chances are once again so low as to be unmentionable, though we’ll want to continue to monitor trends with the front and any waves that might try to form along it.

Overall, though, a solid close to the work week as we emerge from a drencher of a few weeks. Good-looking weather continues into the weekend, too as high pressure continues in place over the area. The only potential fly in the ointment could be a coastal trough that looks to take shape, which may provide a focal point for a few isolated showers in the afternoons, mainly near the coast. We’ll watch trends, but in the meantime, enjoy the tiny sniff of fall — it’s better than what we’ve had, that’s for sure…