Legitimate sweater weather arrives Wednesday as the coldest air of the season thus far moves into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s but don’t expect temperatures to climb too much beyond the mid-50s despite lots of sunshine. In fact, we may at least tie a different kind of record high on Wednesday — the record low maximum temperature for November 1, which was also 55° last set in 2014.
Thursday looks to get off to the coldest start since early March, and a continued north to northeasterly breeze will drive the wind chill down to around or even below freezing. Dress accordingly in the morning! From there, highs will run a few degrees warmer than they did on Wednesday, but that’s not saying much as we’ll still see temperatures struggle to reach 60° despite unencumbered insolation. The record low maximum of 58° on Thursday is probably safe, but it’ll be close.
The airmass starts to moderate on Friday, though, as warmer air begins to work back into the area. We start Friday in the low 40s before warming to the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into the weekend, too, as we head back to the 70s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Changes are on the way on Halloween as a strong cold front moves across the area later in the day, bringing an uptick in cloud cover, maybe a shower or two, and a surge of the coldest air so far this season to start November. We start Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60° with just a few clouds to start. From there, expect cloud cover to gradually thicken as the front gets closer. We should see it get through sometime mid-afternoon into the early evening; you’ll notice it when winds shift around more to the north.
Trick-or-treaters will want a light jacket as temperatures cool into the 50s throughout the evening. As mentioned, a shower or two will be possible, but the risk is quite low.
The week ahead will feature the strongest cold snap of the season thus far sandwiched between a warm start and a warm finish. It’s a classic “shorts then sweaters” week of fall weather in the Lowcountry as a strong front moves by late on Halloween.
This will be an unseasonably warm final weekend of October across the Lowcountry as temperatures will bear more resemblance to mid-May. Expect highs in the mid-80s each afternoon with lows around 60° to start each day. Sunday’s forecast high of 85° would, if it came to pass, tie the record high for October 29 set in 1946. We’ll do this courtesy of stacked high pressure remaining in control for a few more days; dry air aloft will keep cloud cover at a minimum, and it’ll be a good weekend for sunshine overall.
No good weather deed goes unpunished, though: There will be a high risk of rip currents at the beaches in case you are wanting to wade into the water, and morning high tides will be high enough to cause some minor salt water flooding as well. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
A strong front coming by around Halloween will flip the script on temperatures. We’ll go from 83° on Monday to 77° on Tuesday before highs only top out around 60° on Wednesday and Thursday. It’s probably safe at this point to go ahead with a Sweater Weather Watch for next week!