Unsettled weather looks to continue as we close out the work week. Wednesday will represent a little break from more of the widespread rain that we’ve seen of late. However, the atmosphere is still plenty juiced, and daytime heating will help fire off scattered showers and thunderstorms as a result. Bouts of heavy rain are expected, and more flood advisories are possible.
Rain chances head back into the likely category Thursday and Friday as another front moves into the area along with some energy rippling in aloft. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms should redevelop each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rain and maybe some flooding continuing to loom. Exact timing on where and how much it will rain is impossible to know this far out — just know that some of you could see some very heavy rain, while others may see lighter amounts overall.
Temperatures will remain suppressed to the mid-80s each afternoon thanks to cloud cover and nearby showers and storms. Mix in humidity, though, and it’ll feel like the low to mid-90s especially if and when the sun peeks out from time to time.
Looking for rain relief this weekend? I wouldn’t bet on it; we’ll still see decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially each afternoon heading into next week. At least temperatures will remain capped in the mid-80s, which doesn’t feel so bad at this point in the year.
We’ve got an on-again, off-again soggy kind of week in store as an unsettled pattern characterized by a persistent mid-level trough over the eastern US stays firmly in place. Before it’s over, many spots could see another 2-3″+ of rain on average, with locally heavier amounts depending on where downpours set up. The greatest risk of thunderstorms will be the afternoon and evening hours each day, but the atmosphere will be such that a shower or storm could happen at pretty much any time. As the week goes by and soils get soggier, we will see an uptick in the flood threat as well.
Suffice to say, this is one of those weeks where we could see another Downtown flooding event or two. It’s almost impossible to pinpoint what day this could happen, as these events are often driven by smaller processes that are impossible to model accurately with any sort of lead time. Keep a close ear to forecast updates, and monitor for possible Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
The one upside to rain and cloud cover? Temperatures will be held into the mid-80s for much of the week, though any sunshine that breaks out immediately after a storm will make things feel steamy.
Unsettled weather will continue this weekend as the lingering front remains a thorn in our side. Friday morning could be a particularly tricky commute as there’s the potential for some heavy rain to be moving through the area around that time. Fortunately, the commute will coincide with low tide, but whenever we’re talking heavy rain we’ll want to keep an eye on the vulnerable areas, such as downtown Charleston, Summerville, and West Ashley near Church Creek (to name a few). Showers and thunderstorms will lift north of the area with the front as the day goes on, but more storms should fire in the afternoon as the seabreeze gets going. Temperatures will generally run in the mid-80s.
With the front having lifted north, warmer weather returns to the area for the weekend. Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to around 90° on Saturday with scattered thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the seabreeze, possibly starting as early as the late morning hours. On Sunday, we’ll stay unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, when storms could turn a little more numerous. Highs once again will top out in the upper 80s. Overall, not the best weekend of weather, but there will be dry times, too — rarely, if ever, do we see total washout days in the summer.
Unsettled — but somewhat cooler — weather continues this week, particularly Thursday into Friday as areas of low pressure along a lingering front as well as impulses around a persistent upper trough help enhance rain chances across the area.
Wednesday will be the driest of the set. As of this writing, the front is driving southward into Georgia, and should stay to our south for much of the day, keeping us in cooler and slightly drier air. While this won’t totally suppress the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, it certainly will keep coverage generally isolated to scattered at best for the first day of school in Charleston County. Highs will top out in the mid-80s, which should make for a reasonably nice day all things considered (though dewpoints around 70° will still feel muggy).
Rain chances begin to ramp up late Wednesday night into Thursday as surface low pressure moves along the front, drawing the boundary a little more north. At the same time, the trough aloft pivots enough to put us in the right entrance region of a jet streak, helping to enhance lift. This combination will make for an unsettled Thursday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected across the area. Heavy rain will be a concern, and we’ll need to keep a close watch for isolated flooding potential. The widespread rain and onshore flow just behind the stalled front should keep Thursday’s high temperatures suppressed to the low 80s.
Friday will run a touch warmer (mid-80s) with a little less coverage of storms to start the day, but showers and thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon after mixing some daytime heating in along with the specter of additional disturbances rounding the base of the upper trough and the persistent stalled front. Heavy rain will once again be a concern with the strongest storms.
This unsettled pattern looks to persist into the weekend as the front continues to meander and weaken, while temperatures turn warmer, closer to mid-August norms.
Tuesday will begin a stretch of unsettled days across the Lowcountry as a cold front moves into the area and stalls out. This will help kick off showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with some heavy rain possible at times in the strongest storms. There are some indications in the high-resolution ensemble guidance that we could see heavy rain near the coast later in the evening as the boundary approaches; fortunately, we’ll be heading toward low tide during commute time. That being said, be ready for a little longer drive home.
Highs will top out near 90° before the onset of showers and thunderstorms; mix in low 70s dewpoints and it’ll feel around 95-97°. This is right around normal for mid-August.
Wednesday could run a little cooler and a little drier as the front could sag south of the area briefly before meandering back northward on Thursday. Likely rain chances will continue through the end of the work week into the weekend.
After a weekend in which we felt the lowest dewpoints in almost two months, more moisture will begin to work back into the area as another front drives into the area and stalls out, leading to an unsettled back-to-school week across the Lowcountry.
We’ve got one more cool start to the day on Monday as lows bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s away from the coast, but that’ll quickly give way to low 90s in the afternoon. Much of the day remains dry, but we’ll want to keep an eye on what takes place to our northwest as the aforementioned front, along with some upper-level help, drives a cluster of showers and thunderstorms through the western Carolinas during the day. It’s possible that it could hold together to bring us some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the late evening as it migrates southeastward. A few storms could be severe especially along and west of I-95, too. It’s not a slam dunk, but certainly worth watching.
Rain becomes more likely heading into Tuesday as the front arrives and stalls out. A wave of low pressure along the front should enhance shower and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon. There will be plenty of moisture to wring out a fair bit of rain out of the heaviest storms, so we’ll be watching closely for the potential for localized flooding concerns. This setup continues through the rest of the week as the front will continue to meander around the area, occasionally with a wave of low pressure traversing it to help enhance those rain chances a bit more at times. (Stay tuned for day-to-day adjustments to these — stalled fronts are fickle beasts.) Temperatures will generally run in the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoons, tempered by rain chances and cloud cover.
A pretty good-looking mid-August weekend is inbound as cooler and drier air works in behind a cold front. After a rather nice start to the day with lows bottoming out in the upper 60s, temperatures will generally warm into the mid-80s each afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Expect Saturday to feel a little more humid than Sunday; Sunday’s dewpoints will mix out to the low 60s in the afternoon, making for an excellent day to head out to events like the Sunday Brunch Farmers Market or Second Sunday on King Street.
The reprieve from humidity and rain chances will be short-lived; we’re back in it by Tuesday. But let’s not worry about such things with such a nice weekend ahead, right? Enjoy it!
A cold front will push southward across the area on Friday, likely bringing with it showers and storms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. The convection-allowing models generally agree on some sort of linear storm organization pushing southward into the area tomorrow evening; the greater question is whether storms will fire ahead of it as well. I’d be prepared for periods of unsettled weather throughout the day, and be ready for another commute impacted by showers and thunderstorms. A severe storm or two can’t be totally ruled out, but the main concern will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Cloud cover and rain showers should help keep highs suppressed to the mid-and-upper 80s.
The front will move south of the area and stall out on Saturday, switching winds around to the northeast and beginning to usher in some cooler and drier air the likes of which we haven’t seen since late June. Dewpoints will fall into the mid-60s and cloud cover will scour out somewhat. However, there’s still a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a wave of low pressure develops along the front. If that wave develops nearby (as tonight’s NAM 3km suggests), it could spread some moisture ashore. That aside, Saturday should actually feel really terrific, especially further inland. Same for Sunday, where partly cloudy skies and mid-60s dewpoints will persist, making for another comfortably warm day across the Lowcountry.
Onshore winds and the recent full moon at perigee could contribute to water levels approaching minor flood stage with the Saturday evening high tide. So far, I’m not expecting any major tidal flooding issues, but it always bears watching with northeasterly wind directions near a full moon.
After a relatively quiet Tuesday, we’ll start to see rain chances trend back up starting Wednesday as a trough develops aloft and a cold front presses southward, which will eventually stall out somewhere in the area over the weekend. We still stay quite warm Wednesday into Thursday as highs top out in the low 90s and heat indices top out in the low 100s. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should develop along the seabreeze in the early afternoon and move inland as the day progresses. Same deal for Thursday, though we could see some additional coverage sprout up as the trough digs in a bit more down the East Coast and the front starts to drive southward a little more. By Friday, the front will be getting closer, and this will instigate greater shower and storm coverage as a result. Temperatures will also run a little cooler — by cooler, I mean upper 80s instead of low 90s — thanks to the more widespread cloud cover and rain coverage.
Heading into the weekend, we look to stay unsettled for at least part of Saturday, but drier air will be punching into the area. We should see a taste of mid-60s dewpoints starting Saturday afternoon, leading into what should be a rather gorgeous (by mid-August standards) Sunday. Fingers crossed these trends in the models continue — typically, it is still tough to get fronts this far south at this point in August, but then again, July’s deluge courtesy of southward-pushing fronts showed us that this hasn’t been a very typical summer. Stay tuned.
Standard warm & muggy August weather will continue this week with an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage coming thanks to a stalling cold front.
Monday looks to remain somewhat on the unsettled side as a mid-level feature known as a TUTT (tropical upper-tropospheric trough — say that five times fast!) continues to whirl into the area. This should help kick off some isolated to scattered showers and storms to start the day near the coast. Eventually, we should see the seabreeze begin to push inland, and along with it, more isolated to scattered showers and storms, with rain chances moving westward with time. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in the afternoon; heat indices will approach 100°.
Expect additional seabreeze-driven showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs topping out in the low 90s each afternoon. Storm coverage ratchets up a little beginning Thursday afternoon as a front approaches the area; scattered to numerous storms are possible Friday with the aforementioned cold front approaching the area. We’ll stay unsettled into the weekend, with high temperatures trending down a little further into the 80s in the afternoons thanks to onshore flow and scattered storms.
The severe weather risk this week is low, but an isolated strong or severe storm can never be totally ruled out at this point in the year. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns from thunderstorms, and slow storm motions at times may produce areas of isolated flooding. All in all, nothing terribly out of the ordinary for early-to-mid-August — just make sure the rain gear is close and that your outdoor activities have indoor backup plans.
