After some beneficial rain so far this Wednesday, we’ll see shower and storm chances taper off this evening as low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area. There is still the risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm for the next few hours (generally through sundown), so we’ll want to be keeping an eye on the radar for the next little bit.
We take a break from rain on Thursday with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for St. Patrick’s Day. Temperatures will rise from the mid-50s in the morning to the mid-70s in the afternoon, and dewpoints in the 50s will make for a good middle ground between “too dry” and “too muggy.” Overall, not a bad St. Patrick’s Day, where the beer will hopefully be more green than the radar.
We’ll warm to near 80° on Friday with increasing cloud cover as another storm system moves through the Mid-South on its way to the Mid-Atlantic. Rain chances look to hold off until late, though. A few thunderstorms will be possible overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, and there once again is the potential for one or two of those to produce damaging wind gusts if conditions line up just right. We’ll keep an eye on how this evolves as nocturnal severe weather is, well, sub-optimal.
Slight shower and storm chances persist into Saturday, after which a cold front will come through and help deliver a rather beautiful Sunday with decreasing cloud cover and highs in the low 70s.
Up-and-down weather will finish out the work week with a nearly equal mix of nice and unsettled mixed in.
Wednesday will be the stormiest day of the set as surface low pressure and its parent upper low continue to rumble eastward into the area. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms for a good bit of the day on Wednesday. One thing we’ll want to watch is if any instability can develop; if so, wind shear will be enough to support some strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. With rain in the area, highs should top out around 70° at best, which will put a governor on any severe threat that might materialize.
The storm system departs overnight Wednesday, and by Thursday, we clear out a bit, allowing for good sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Should be a nice day to get out and about for lunch!
Friday starts out fairly nice as well — mid-50s for lows remain well above normal for this point in the year — before cloud cover increases ahead of another cold front. Showers could work into the area as early as the afternoon and evening hours, but the best risk of rain from this next storm system will be in the area for Saturday. Sunday, though, looks good with comfortable temperatures and ample sunshine.
We’ll return to the 70s tomorrow despite increasing cloud cover as high pressure continues to extend offshore at the surface, pumping in some warmer air on the back end of its circulation. No frost or freeze issues are expected Tuesday morning as temperatures look to stay well in the 40s in the morning.
We’ll be watching an upper low as it cuts off around the Arklatex tonight and slowly rumbles through Mississippi tomorrow. This will help to spin up surface low pressure which will traverse the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this low, moisture influx will increase, hence the increasing cloud cover. A few showers will be possible after sunset Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
The bulk of the rain, though, looks to fall on Wednesday as the surface and upper lows move by the area. We get a break on Thursday before another storm system swings by Friday. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this point in the year, with mid-70s expected by mid-week.
The week ahead features a return to warmer weather with shower and thunderstorm chances mixed in as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled across the Southeast.
Frost and freeze conditions will give way to warmer — but still a touch below normal — high temperatures across the area on Monday as we warm into the mid-60s. Cloud cover will be on the increase as surface high pressure slips offshore and moisture return improves on the back side of the high. Rain chances begin to tick up later in the day on Tuesday as an upper-level low cuts off over the Arklatex and begins to move eastward, spreading some energy into the area and spawning a surface low pressure system. The cutoff low will move by the Carolinas on Wednesday, and with surface low pressure in place, this will help generate showers and thunderstorms across the area. A couple strong storms might not be out of the question on Wednesday, so that’ll be a trend to watch.
The upper low opens back up into a trough as it moves back into the Atlantic later Wednesday into early Thursday, leaving behind a little bit of ridging and thus quiet weather for the better part of Thursday heading into Friday. Another upper-level low will be moving across the mid-South on Friday, and the associated surface front will approach the area heading into the weekend, bringing some showers and maybe a thunderstorm into our forecast.
Thankfully, there’s no further return to winter in this forecast; no frost and freeze concerns are expected after Monday morning, and temperatures will generally run above normal throughout the week, ranging from the mid-60s on Monday to the low-to-mid-70s Tuesday through Thursday before warming up into the upper 70s to near 80° for Friday and Saturday.
After today’s rather impressive cold frontal passage, an Arctic airmass settles into the area tonight into Sunday. A Freeze Warning is in effect through Sunday morning as lows head into the 20s across much of the metro area. Regardless of where you are, I’d take precautions with your plants tonight with freezing temperatures possible all the way to the coast.
Sunday won’t warm too terribly much. Highs will only top out in the low 50s despite full sunshine as the abnormally cold and dry airmass dominates our weather. It’ll be exceptionally dry, too, with relative humidity values dropping below 25% in the afternoon. Jackets and lip balm will be important on Sunday!
The good news is that this is March, and this will be relatively short-lived — we’ll be back in the 70s by Tuesday after one more light freeze possibly Sunday night into Monday morning.
Saturday could be a bit of a wild day of weather across the Lowcountry. We’ll start with a strong cold front bringing a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in the morning, and we’ll finish with Arctic air rushing into the area, leading to a hard freeze for many of us Sunday morning.
This weekend’s weather encapsulates the power of March in a nutshell: Cold air damming, followed by a severe weather threat, followed by an Arctic blast.
We’ll start Friday within the cold wedge that’s kept it cloudy and chilly across the area today. During the day, a warm front should lift north of the area, scouring out the wedge and putting us back in the warm sector of an approaching storm system. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the uptick as the front approaches, and a few of those could turn strong to severe especially as we get into Saturday morning. Guidance is pretty consistent in depicting a squall line-like feature moving through the area to start Saturday, promoting a damaging wind threat. A tornado or two could be possible inland as well, with that risk decreasing as you get closer to the coast and significantly cooler shelf waters.
After the front gets through Saturday morning, conditions will turn quite windy by afternoon as Arctic high pressure builds in from the northwest. The high temperature will be attained in the morning as we’ll cool off fairly substantially post-frontal passage, with temperatures just in the mid-50s in the afternoon.
Saturday night into Sunday morning, clocks will spring forward and temperatures will fall way back into the 20s in much of the metro area, with freezing temperatures possible to the coast. I’d advise everyone with tender vegetation to be ready for a freeze regardless of where you are; cover or bring in those sensitive plants and do not forget about your pets, either!
The chill will be short-lived heading into the new work week; we’ll be back in the 70s by Tuesday (along with another storm system).
More needed rain will steadily fill in overnight as a cold front gets through the area and promptly stalls out nearby. We’ll see showers continue for much of Thursday before they taper off as the front gets shoved a little further offshore. Temperatures will certainly run much cooler — lows in the upper 50s will give way to highs only in the mid-60s in the afternoon.
A warm front lifts north of us tonight, putting us squarely in the warm sector of a storm system that will approach the area tomorrow before stalling out nearby Thursday. While we reside in that warm sector tomorrow, good turning of winds with height and decent instability will promote a risk for thunderstorms, a few of which could become severe. The main severe weather risk will be from damaging wind gusts, but if a supercell or two can get going, that will come along with an elevated risk for hail or even a tornado. Suffice to say, you’ll want to stay close to reliable and redundant sources of severe weather information tomorrow afternoon into the evening. NOAA Weather Radio is a great way to get alerts, and if it is enabled to do so, your phone can automatically alert you to tornado warnings, no app required.
Due to the risk of severe weather, the statewide tornado drill originally scheduled for Wednesday morning as part of South Carolina Severe Weather and Flood Safety Week has been moved to Friday at 9am.
We will have a lull in the severe weather threat on Thursday, but expect plenty of showers and even a few thunderstorms to linger as the front remains stalled out close by. Another risk of severe weather is possible late Friday into early Saturday morning as another front approaches the area. This front will bring cold high pressure for later Saturday into Sunday, with the risk of a freeze on Sunday morning.
Cloud cover and eventually shower chances return to the forecast tomorrow as a cold front edges closer to the area. The clouds will help keep the morning rather balmy — 64° is the forecast low, just a few degrees below the normal high for this point in the year. Highs will head into the mid-to-upper 70s, but won’t quite be able to reach 80° given the increase in cloud cover and the development of scattered showers in the afternoon. It won’t rain all afternoon, but be ready for that potential especially during the evening commute.
Rain chances continue to ramp up this week as the cold front stalls across the area, with more widespread rain expected to develop Wednesday into Thursday. Rain stays in the forecast through Saturday until a cold front shifts offshore, shutting off precipitation and ushering in some very cold air — perhaps reaching freezing — for Sunday away from the immediate coast.
