We will get off to an unsettled start to the weekend as a frontal boundary sags south into the area during the day on Saturday. Ahead of the front, expect highs to top out in the low 90s before numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Chances are pretty good that you’ll see at least a little rain at some point tomorrow. With plenty of available moisture to wring out, though, it is conceivable that flooding may be a concern tomorrow within the strongest storms. While severe weather looks unlikely, all storms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors!
It’s expected that the front will pass through and stall out to our south by Sunday. Temperatures will run a little “cooler” with highs topping out in the mid-80s, but scattered showers and thunderstorms should still develop in the afternoon. How Sunday ultimately evolves will depend on what goes on during the day Saturday, so keep an eye out for forecast adjustments.
We have another hot day in store for Friday as temperatures once again head back into the low 90s in the afternoon. Humidity will make it feel closer to 100° once again, especially in the early afternoon. Like today, we can expect a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Not everyone will get rain, but those who do could see a brief downpour along with some lightning.
As we get into the weekend, we will see a front start dropping into the area from the north as a trough digs in aloft. This will contribute to additional coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere will allow for heavy rainfall to develop, and given that slow storm motions are expected, some minor areas of flooding are certainly possible. Look for highs near 90° before storms kick in.
The front will continue to sink south of the area as we get into Sunday. Alas, this isn’t the kind of front that gets us much in the way of a cooldown, and indeed, the front will dissipate as it continues to push southward. Still, expect scattered storms to continue to be a factor on and off during the day. High temperatures will once again run in the upper 80s before showers and storms begin to develop.
This unsettled pattern looks to continue into next week as a trough of low pressure persists in the east. Good news here is that there will be more chances for beneficial rain across the Lowcountry in that time, but let’s hope we don’t get too much of a good thing all at once, either.
Temperatures continue their upward climb on Thursday, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with dewpoints in the low 70s to yield heat indices approaching 100° for the first time this season. Some of us will see some relief from isolated to scattered showers and storms along the inland-marching seabreeze, but with high pressure holding firm, you can’t count on storms to cool you off. Where storms do form, brief downpours will be possible. As always during the warm season, we will want to watch outflow boundaries from collapsing storms as they can collide and help pop a few stronger storms.
We will turn increasingly unsettled as a trough begins to dig in starting Friday and into the weekend. This will send a frontal boundary our way which will help touch off more storms. Don’t cancel plans, but ensure you have indoor fallbacks for outdoor activities.
We’ve got one more day of scattered to numerous storms inland (we can’t seem to catch a raindrop here toward the coast) before ridging and drier air begins to put a bit of a lid on more widespread thunderstorm activity heading into Thursday and Friday. As storm coverage decreases, temperatures will increase, and we look in line for our first 100° heat indices of the year come Friday. A storm or two will still be possible, which may bring some brief relief, but be ready to pay a little more attention to hydration and time outside later this week.
We’ll continue our risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday into much of Tuesday. Like today, we could see some showers swinging through early in the morning. More scattered showers and storms should pop as daytime heating builds across the area. We’ll see this risk shift inland with the seabreeze by evening. Severe weather is unlikely, but this time of year we always have to be wary of outflow boundaries and their intersection helping to briefly intensify thunderstorm updrafts.
Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s thanks to cloud cover and the presence of scattered showers and storms. The humidity will make it feel more like the low 90s. A warming trend continues throughout the week; we’re in the 90s by Friday.
We’re getting into “copy-paste season,” when the summertime weather pattern is such that you’ll be pretty much on point with upper 80s to low 90s and a 20% chance of storms each afternoon. Of course, much more science goes into the forecast than that, but it goes to show just how static the pattern looks to be for the next few days. As is customary in summer, showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered in nature. It will not rain everywhere, and it will not rain all day. It will be impossible to say with much certainty where storms will form, and if we are lucky to get clues as to where thunderstorms may initiate, we won’t have a lot of lead time.
Temperatures will start around normal before creeping up into the 90s by the weekend. Combined with humidity, that may yield our first 100°+ heat indices of the season, so that’s something you’ll want to plan for if you have outdoor activities scheduled.
Welcome to summer, folks. (Meteorological summer started on June 1; the summer solstice will take place on June 20.)
It’s been another rough day of precipitation. Last night, McClellanville and then Downtown Charleston took the brunt of it, and today it was the Goose Creek area. Rain gauges in the Crowfield Plantation/College Park area recorded 4-6″ of rain in just about two hours as strong to severe thunderstorms (which dropped quarter-size hail on Goose Creek) essentially parked themselves until they gusted out.
It must be June: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to today’s forecast with temperatures topping out in the mid-to-upper 80s. Today’s storms look to kick off along the seabreeze perhaps as early as 1-2 PM, with the likeliest corridor of heavy rain to remain between I-95 and US-17. A couple storms could briefly turn severe with wet microbursts the primary concern, particularly where outflow boundaries intersect. So far, overnight model data do not favor a repeat of last night’s deluge in Downtown Charleston, but we will need to see how things ultimately evolve this afternoon. Keep rain gear handy and be ready to move outdoor activities indoors — in other words, pretty much standard for this time of year.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to factor in prominently in the forecast over the next few days, with periods of heavy rain possible especially Friday and Saturday. A storm or two may be able to produce a wet microburst, but other than that, no severe weather is expected. Storm motions will be watched closely for any training of heavy rain, and we’ll also keep an eye on tides in case radar trends show heavy rain approaching downtown. We’ll begin to see a downtick in storm coverage as we get into Sunday, when high pressure nudges back in a little bit, but we’ll still see more typical-for-June afternoon shower and storm chances along the seabreeze. It won’t rain all day, and it won’t rain all the time — just ensure you have a backup plan for your outdoor activities if and when it does rain.
The one benefit to these storms is that it’ll help keep temperatures down to around normal values for early June, with highs in the mid-80s. Even still, dewpoints around 70-72° will keep these highs feeling closer to the low to mid-90s, but at least it won’t be hotter with the same humidity.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the weather picture on Thursday. We should see a little greater coverage of storms than we saw today given weakening high pressure at the surface and even more robust moisture in place. Temperatures once again will only top out in the mid-80s with showers and storms in the area after a mild start in the 70s. Convective temperatures look fairly low — model soundings generally suggest around 80° — so we should see showers begin to initiate within 2-3 hours of sunrise. Storm motions will be inland, and we should see a break in the rain closer to the coast in the late afternoon/early evening hours as the seabreeze makes its westward progression. With any luck, we’ll get more much-needed rainfall across even more of the area than we saw today.
