Ian’s impacts will be felt most on Friday as the center of the storm makes its closest approach to the Charleston metro area. Ian, once again a hurricane with 85 MPH maximum sustained winds, has seen several shifts in its forecast track throughout the day, moving the forecast landfall point from Beaufort this morning to Georgetown this evening. Charleston now sits on the western fringe of the error cone — a more southerly landfall cannot yet be ruled out — but it increasingly looks like we will spend time on the western side of the storm. This will reduce the tornado threat to nearly zero and should act to blunt the impacts of storm surge as well (but may not totally eliminate it, either). However, as Ian has started to take on a more hybrid structure — less of a tropical cyclone and more of a cold-core low — it is likely that the wettest and even windiest part of the storm may be the northwest side. So, while we might miss out on more of the severe storm surge impacts, the specter of more residence time with heavy rain certainly looms large.
Based on the 11PM advisory, here’s what you can expect for Friday:
Heavy rain for much of the day, especially in the morning through early afternoon. Several inches of rain are anticipated, with the possibility of some unlucky spots exceeding 10″. This heavy rain should be enough to overwhelm drainage in downtown Charleston without much assistance from the tide. Heavy rain won’t be limited to the coast, either; be ready for freshwater flooding issues in places like Summerville and around Northwoods in North Charleston.
High tide around 11:41 AM should add salt water flooding to the mix. The extent is highly dependent on the center. For now, the NWS forecast is 9′ MLLW — it would be only the fifth time on record that the water level exceeds 9′ in the harbor — but given current trends, it is possible this may be revised downward. (The opposite is true if the landfall point once again looks to be a little further south.)
Ian’s massive wind field will produce tropical storm-force wind gusts for many of us especially as the center passes by, with sustained tropical storm-force winds possible for a few hours at the coast as well as in downtown Charleston and on barrier islands. The highest winds will be found at the coast, where hurricane conditions are possible. Generally speaking, prepare for 40-50 MPH wind gusts across inland areas, and gusts approaching 70-80 MPH at the beaches. This wind will certainly cause some power outage issues — be prepared for these to last a little while as winds could be too high for crews to come out until later.
The tornado threat across the Charleston area has diminished substantially. Unless the track shifts back southward, we should be tornado-free on Friday. 🎉
Overall, cautious optimism is key. If the center should shift back a little more southwestward toward our location, we could see an increase in these impacts, particularly when it comes to surge.
Ian will wind down quickly after landfall, and by Saturday dry air will be punching in, shutting off a vast majority of the rain (a shower or two can’t be ruled out) and bringing the sun back out, with highs in the upper 70s expected.
Bottom line: Hunker down tomorrow and hang in there — it’ll be over before you know it.
We are breezy but rain-free this evening as dry high pressure remains in control of our weather. It will hang on for a bit for the first part of Thursday, but a gradual deterioration in weather will begin in the afternoon. It’s a good time to finish gathering supplies for a rough period of weather beginning later Thursday through Saturday morning.
Wednesday will likely represent the last really decent weather day across the Lowcountry before winds begin to turn much more breezy as Ian approaches the area starting Thursday. (A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect, too.) It’ll be a good day to bring things in from outdoors, check on your batteries, flashlights, and weather radios, and if in a flood-prone area, sandbag property appropriately if needed. We’re in for what might be a tricky few days…but it’s nothing we won’t be able to handle, either.
It’s gonna feel a lot cooler Wednesday, that’s for sure, as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds will turn northeasterly and be gusty at times, with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible, higher closer to the coast. Temperatures will start out in the upper 50s and stay cool, with mid-70s at best with thickening cloud cover ahead of Ian blanketing the skies. We stay rain-free thanks to a deep layer of dry air closer to the surface, however.
Minor coastal flooding will be a concern with the 10:07am and 10:17pm high tides as the northeasterly flow around high pressure to the north drives water levels higher. This could be enough to close a couple roads in the more vulnerable areas, such as around Gadsden Creek. Major disruptions to travel aren’t anticipated, however.
We’ll turn cooler tomorrow as a front gets through tonight. Expect lows to run a few degrees lower in the mid-60s (a touch warmer near the coast where water temperatures still hover around 80°). Highs will get to the low 80s under a mix of clouds and sun as high pressure wedges in from the northeast. It’ll be a good day to get prep work done ahead of Ian, which continues to look to produce impacts in the Lowcountry later this week.
We’ve got another nice-looking day of weather coming up for Sunday. We start the day a little warmer than we did Saturday — lows generally around 60° away from the locally warmer coast — but it’ll still feel nice and fall-like to start the day. High temperatures will head up into the mid-80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies; southwesterly winds will bring a little more in the way of humidity into the picture as well, but dewpoints in the mid-60s will still feel alright.
Sunday marks the beginning of a brief warming trend that’ll see us head into the upper 80s on Monday ahead of another cold front. That front should pass with minimal fanfare, though a shower or two can’t be totally ruled out Monday evening. This will set us up for a nice day of weather on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s expected.
High pressure will dominate the pattern this weekend, bringing us excellent weather for outdoor activities.
Saturday will start out as cool as it’s been since mid-May, with lows expected to bottom out in the mid-50s away from the locally warmer coast. Cloud-free skies should persist for much of the day as temperatures head to the low 80s in the afternoon. Winds will be down compared to what we saw Friday, too, which should make it a little easier to enjoy a meal outdoors with a lower risk of unintentional napkin aviation.
High pressure will begin to slip offshore Saturday night into Sunday, and this will make Sunday’s start feel about 5-10° warmer on average across the area with lows bottoming out around the mid-60s. Mostly sunny skies will persist, though, and highs will generally top out in the mid-80s. It’ll be a touch more humid, but certainly not anything tremendously uncomfortable.
The only hazard we’ll need to really be concerned with this weekend is a lingering high risk for rip currents thanks to continued swell from Hurricane Fiona. Inexperienced swimmers should continue to avoid the Atlantic waters this weekend as a result.
