Sunday will not be rain-free, but it will not be a total loss, either, as a couple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected — one in the morning, and then another late afternoon/early evening, with likely some dry time in the middle.
We will likely start the day with some showers in the area as temperatures bottom out in the low-to-mid-60s. These come on the heels of a decaying thunderstorm complex that, as of this writing, is moving over Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will pass by mid-morning, and we should see a stretch of reasonably quiet conditions before a cold front gets close to the area later in the afternoon/early evening hours. High temperatures should peak in the low 80s despite an uptick in cloud cover.
As the front approaches, a second round of scattered storms should fire, and a couple of those could be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Regardless, if you’re out and about and hear thunder, it’s time to find safe shelter indoors because all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. This is especially critical for the later shows at High Water.
On balance, nobody will be socked in with rain all day, and some of you may not get any at all! That’s just how this works as we get into the later spring months, after all. The risk for showers and thunderstorms should end by mid-evening, with the front pushing offshore generally before midnight.
From here, beautiful weather ensues for much of the upcoming work week (as seems to be customary in 2023), with the next rain chances not for several days.
Showers return to the forecast later Thursday as high pressure slips offshore ahead of a low advancing northward out of the Gulf. We start dry and should get a good bit of the day in without rain, though. After starting in the mid-50s, highs will top out in the upper 70s as cloud cover increases ahead of showers. Expect the onset of rain roughly mid to late afternoon into the evening hours. It’ll be off and on, but could be briefly heavy at times. A little thunder can’t be ruled out, either. The best rain chances come after dark and persist into Friday.
Tuesday will be one of the better weather days we’ve had in a while around here, just an all-around gorgeous spring day. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 40s and warm nicely into the low 70s in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dewpoints around 40° will yield a really comfortable day, too — not too dry, not too humid. Yes, it’s a workday, but with some of y’all on spring break, I hope you get to take advantage of this! Before you know it, we’ll be sweating buckets by merely stepping outdoors.
After a chilly, raw day across the area in which we tied the record cold high temperature, the rain comes to an end Sunday morning and we begin to dry out. Cloud cover will hang tough for much of the day, though we should get some peeks of sun late. One of the main weather stories for this Easter Sunday will be the continued chill; high pressure continuing to wedge into the area will keep highs in the mid-50s after starting in the mid-40s. If the NWS forecast high of 57° verifies, it’d be the second consecutive day tying a record cold high temperature.
The second weather story of the day will be the gusty northeast winds and the potential for major coastal flooding with the late night high tide. Winds will be brisk, sustained 15-20 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH at times, with even higher gusts possible at the coast and on the higher bridges. The persistent northeasterly wind will also drive tidal departures up over 2′, potentially pushing the 11:04 PM high tide up to around 8′, which is major coastal flooding territory. Fortunately, we’ll be done with the rain, and that will keep the flooding issues confined largely to tidal areas. Still, numerous road closures are possible late Sunday, and you’ll want to keep that in mind if you have late-day travel plans around downtown.
If you’re into highs in the 80s and rain-free weather, try to take advantage of Thursday because changes are in store heading into the weekend. We’ll start the day in the mid-60s, well above normal for this point in the year, before warming back into the mid-80s for the afternoon. (The record high of 90° set in 1967, thankfully, remains safe.)
Lingering showers will clear the area overnight, setting us up for a much warmer Tuesday as winds go more westerly and clouds scour out. Expect highs to peak in the mid-80s away from the coast in the afternoon after starting the day in the mid-60s. These temperatures easily run 10°+ above normal for this point in the year, where the normal high is 74° and the normal low is 52°. (The record high for April 4 of 91°, set in 1963, mercifully remains safe.)
Calm winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall quite nicely tonight, with lows bottoming out in the low 40s across much of the metro area to start Thursday. (Thankfully, not low enough to deal with frost or freeze concerns.) Full sunshine will allow temperatures to warm nicely into the low 70s, making for what should be a rather pleasant day across the Lowcountry.
A cold front will swing through tonight and will stall out across southeast Georgia. This will take a little bit of the mugginess out of the air for Tuesday, though scattered showers will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours as a disturbance moves on through. However, with the lower dewpoints — think upper 50s rather than mid-60s — the risk for thunderstorms is just about nil, and the risk for severe weather is nonexistent. Just watch for some patches of fog in the morning. Highs climb into the mid-70s at best given the slightly drier airmass, continued cloud cover, and the expected shower activity.
Overnight Tuesday, a shot of much drier air works its way into the area, leading to a much cooler — but sunnier — Wednesday, followed by a warming trend back into the 80s to close out the work week.
A warm front will lift north of the area tonight, clearing out the light rain and bringing back the 80s to the area for the next several days. We start Thursday in the mid-to-upper 50s, with temperatures warming into the low 80s away from the slightly cooler coastline in the afternoon under increasingly sunny skies. For reference, normal highs for this point in the year are in the low 70s, though we will remain well under the record high of 87° set in 1995. Winds out of the south and southwest will be a little breezy, which might add to some slight complications for any outdoor lunch plans. Other than that, though, a pretty decent late-March day.
Welcome to Spring! A Freeze Warning is in effect for inland Berkeley and Dorchester overnight into Tuesday morning, with a risk for patchy frost in other sheltered spots. This will be the last one of these for a little while, though, as a warming trend commences. It will be subtle on Tuesday, with highs running in the mid-60s as opposed to the low 60s — still well below climatology for this point in March. Skies will generally run mostly sunny with a few more clouds in the afternoon.
Northeasterly winds and the new moon will combine to produce tidal flooding during the Tuesday morning commute. Water levels could approach 7.3-7.5′ around 8:34am, which should be enough to close a couple roads in downtown Charleston. Be ready for delays if downtown is in your plans, particularly the west side of the peninsula.
