Another dangerously hot day for the Lowcountry is on tap for Tuesday, as temperatures soar into the upper 90s — and perhaps over 100° well inland — in the afternoon courtesy of an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft. Factor in the humidity, and it’ll feel as hot as 110°+ during the peak of the afternoon, prompting a Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm for the entire Tri-County area.

We haven’t seen heat like this in a long while. The last time air temperatures reached Tuesday’s forecast high of 98°, COVID wasn’t even in our vocabulary: it was August 10, 2019.

Looking for thunderstorms to help temper the heat? Don’t count on them, as coverage should be isolated at best. If storms do get going, they’ll be able to take off and become severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail. We’ll also be watching areas to our north with close interest tonight into tomorrow, as a potential mesoscale convective system could move into and through the Mid-Atlantic states during the day. This could help drive a cold front southward, bringing with it perhaps a better shot at some showers and storms later in the evening. These, too, could be on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center outlines the area in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms Tuesday.

Oppressive heat looks to continue for much of the rest of the week, with a slight downshift in intensity Thursday and Friday (but not enough to elude more Heat Advisories). Mercifully, this heat wave should break on Sunday after another front pushes through the area and actually cools things off somewhat. But for now, make sure you’re getting plenty of shade and water if you must be outside in the afternoon.

Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue as well around the times of evening high tide. Watch for the potential for road closures each evening, and be on the lookout for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Despite the air temperature topping out around 91°, Thursday’s going to be the hottest day of the week because of quite a bit of humidity. Heat indices could approach 100° in the afternoon before scattered thunderstorms develop along the inland-moving seabreeze. A storm or two could be on the strong side where outflow boundaries intersect, but as is typical in the summertime, any severe weather will be quite localized. Heat will certainly affect everyone, though, so be sure that you’re getting plenty of water and shade if you’re outdoors in the height of the afternoon.

After what was a rather pleasant day today, summer warmth returns to the weather picture beginning Tuesday. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s in the afternoon, with heat indices running in the low 90s. An isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out, but the majority of us get the day in rain-free.

Another hot day is in store for Thursday as highs once again soar into the 90s under partly cloudy skies. Add humidity in, and heat indices could reach 96-97°. There’s a slight chance of a popup thunderstorm or two tomorrow, but the vast majority of us once again look to remain rain-free. If storms do fire, they could produce some gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning, so be ready to move indoors if you’ve got outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon.

Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)

There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.

Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.

Thursday looks to be another warm and somewhat muggy day as onshore flow keeps humidity up a notch or two. Temperatures will top out a little warmer than they did today, ending up around on the higher end of the mid-80s away from the coastline; factor in the humidity and we’ll see heat indices running in the low 90s. We look to stay rain-free, though, as drier air aloft stays in place for one more day.

We remain warm and muggy on Tuesday as we remain on the warm side of a stalled frontal boundary to our north. Storm coverage should be a little lower for the afternoon, generally driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze, but a few spots may still yet get some heavy rain and even some gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though. Highs in the afternoon top out in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.

Later in the evening, the aforementioned frontal boundary should get a bit of a move-on as low pressure heads eastward across North Carolina. Some of the convection-allowing models push the front into the area as early as 9-10 PM, accompanied by showers and maybe some thunderstorms. We’ll see how this ultimately pans out. Regardless, we should see the front — and some slightly drier air — at least temporarily poke into the area for Wednesday, stalling out over or just south of the Tri-County. Wait and see, but for now, we’ll continue to take the shots for beneficial rainfall, as long as the extra-curricular activity remains to a minimum.

The hottest weather thus far in 2022 looks to arrive on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s and warm well into the mid-90s in the afternoon. The record high of 96°, set in 1996, will be challenged under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Heat indices could run close to 100° in the afternoon, so be sure to hydrate and take breaks accordingly.

As a series of mid-level disturbances ripple through the area, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms to fire off and move through in the late afternoon and evening hours. IF storms can fire — and this is a big IF — they could be on the strong to severe side. The thermodynamics certainly look good for storms to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, but it remains to be seen if they can get going thanks to a strong cap on the atmosphere. Gonna be a game of wait, see, and watch the satellite and radar in the meantime.

A cold front will sink south of the area very early Tuesday morning, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for the next couple days before the heat pump really kicks up starting Thursday.

Of course, by “slightly cooler and drier” I mean “it won’t be 90° with a dewpoint in the mid-60s in the afternoon,” so keep that in mind as you set expectations for what Tuesday will feel like. But, indeed, it should feel a little better than Monday did. With a slightly drier airmass, the afternoon cumulus field should be a little bit more scattered, allowing for more sunshine. Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 80s thanks to northeasterly flow developing across the area, coolest at the immediate coast.

The northeasterly winds combined with the recent full moon at perigee should further enhance the risk for tidal flooding with the evening high tide (peaks a little after 10 PM), with another round of moderate flooding likely between 7 and midnight. Be ready for some sporadic road closures once again as a result.

As foretold earlier, we’ll get one more day of comfortable warmth on Wednesday before a warm front lifts north and the heat pump turns on for Thursday and Friday. Expect highs in the mid-90s for the first time this year away from the coast then, with heat indices perhaps creeping into the upper 90s. Summer’s just about here, folks, whether we want it or not!

After a rather gorgeous — if not a touch windy — stretch of weather across the Lowcountry, rain chances return to the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening as coastal low pressure drifts closer to the area. We’ll start to see an increase in cloud cover overnight into tomorrow morning, but the best rain chances should hold off until the afternoon. We may be contending with some showers for the evening drive, so be alert to that possibility. Temperatures will still run on the cool side as breezy north and northeast winds continue across the area; with the cloud cover and approaching rainfall, we shouldn’t see highs much warmer than the mid-70s.